Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> reported its 2QFY03/2022 results on Wednesday (27<sup>th</sup> October) which saw revenues growing 29.6% YoY to JPY51.2bn while reported OP (including profit from Medlive IPO) for the quarter increased 194.1% YoY to JPY37.3bn. Excluding the impact from Medlive IPO, the adjusted OP grew 21.8% YoY to JPY15.4bn during the second quarter.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/237/973/original/image_42895307621635358784594.png?1635358786" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="237973"></figure><p><em>Source: Company disclosures</em></p><p>The reported revenue for 2QFY03/2022 was 4.3% higher vs consensus revenue of JPY49.1bn while reported OP for the quarter was 8.5% higher vs consensus OP of JPY34.4bn.</p>

M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported its 2QFY03/2022 results on Wednesday (27th October) which saw revenues growing 29.6% YoY to JPY51.2bn while reported OP (including profit from Medlive IPO) for the quarter increased 194.1% YoY to JPY37.3bn. Excluding the impact from Medlive IPO, the adjusted OP grew 21.8% YoY to JPY15.4bn during the second quarter.Source: Company disclosuresThe reported revenue for 2QFY03/2022 was 4.3% higher vs consensus revenue of JPY49.1bn while reported OP for the quarter was 8.5% higher vs consensus OP of JPY34.4bn.

M3: Strong 2Q Results but Earnings Growth Starts Decelerating

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>  reported 1QFY03/2022 results on Wednesday which saw revenues growing 30.8% YoY while reported operating profit grew 38.2%YoY during the quarter (excl. the impact from stake disposal of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a>). M3’s operating profits during 1QFY03/2022 benefitted from the IPO of Medlive Technology on Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2021 with a profit attribution of JPY9.1bn (19.6% of total revenues in 1Q and 36.9% of operating profits excl. Medlive IPO impact).</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/220/968/original/image_968611860161627537893439.png?1627537894" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="220968"></figure><p><em>Source: Company disclosures</em></p><p>The reported revenue was 3.8% higher than consensus estimates while reported operating profits beat consensus by a huge margin of about 50%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/220/969/original/image_180657963171627537913658.png?1627537914" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="220969"></figure>

M3 Inc (2413 JP)  reported 1QFY03/2022 results on Wednesday which saw revenues growing 30.8% YoY while reported operating profit grew 38.2%YoY during the quarter (excl. the impact from stake disposal of Medlive Technology (2192 HK)). M3’s operating profits during 1QFY03/2022 benefitted from the IPO of Medlive Technology on Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2021 with a profit attribution of JPY9.1bn (19.6% of total revenues in 1Q and 36.9% of operating profits excl. Medlive IPO impact).Source: Company disclosuresThe reported revenue was 3.8% higher than consensus estimates while reported operating profits beat consensus by a huge margin of about 50%.

M3: Medlive IPO Helped OP Surge in 1Q; Expect Earnings Weakness to Come Through in 2H

Medlive Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a> operates the largest online professional physician platform in China based on registered physician users in 2020 (Source: Frost &amp; Sullivan). The company generates a majority of its revenues through offering digital marketing services to pharmaceuticals and healthcare companies in China.</p><p>Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.2 per share, at the upper end of the IPO price range of HK$24.1-27.2 per share. At the above price, Medlive raised gross proceeds of HK$4.2bn (US$543m) at a market capitalisation of HK$18.8bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$14.8bn.</p><p>In our previous insight, we discussed our forecasts and valuation and our DCF based valuation offered price per share of HK$33.05 per share, which is 21% higher than the company’s IPO price of HK$27.2 per share.</p>

Medlive Technology (2192 HK) operates the largest online professional physician platform in China based on registered physician users in 2020 (Source: Frost &amp; Sullivan). The company generates a majority of its revenues through offering digital marketing services to pharmaceuticals and healthcare companies in China.Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.2 per share, at the upper end of the IPO price range of HK$24.1-27.2 per share. At the above price, Medlive raised gross proceeds of HK$4.2bn (US$543m) at a market capitalisation of HK$18.8bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$14.8bn.In our previous insight, we discussed our forecasts and valuation and our DCF based valuation offered price per share of HK$33.05 per share, which is 21% higher than the company’s IPO price of HK$27.2 per share.

Medlive IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a> is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.</p></div><div><p>Medlive will commence trading on Thursday, 15 July. Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.20 and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/3006198/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%913%E9%9A%BB%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E3%80%80%E9%86%AB%E8%84%88%E9%80%9A2192%E5%8D%871%E6%88%90%E3%80%81%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%B3%BA1350%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">closed 10% up at HK$29.90</a> in the Futu securities grey market. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-initiation-what-s-up-doc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53683" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?</a>, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53879" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we stated that we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$32.17 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market price is attractive.</p></div></div></div>

Medlive Technology (2192 HK) is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.Medlive will commence trading on Thursday, 15 July. Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.20 and closed 10% up at HK$29.90 in the Futu securities grey market. In Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. In Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights, we stated that we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$32.17 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market price is attractive.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a>  has announced the terms for its Hong Kong IPO where it plans to issue 155.1m shares at an indicative price range of HK$24.1-27.2 per share. At the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$25.65 per share, Medlive will raise net proceeds of HK$3.8bn (US$485.3m) at a market capitalisation of HK$17.7bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$13.8bn.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 308.0pt;"><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Medlive Technology IPO Details</strong></p></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.0pt;"><p>No. of Shares Issued</p></td>
<td style="width: 67.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">     155,096,000</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.0pt;"><p>Price per Share (HK$)</p></td>
<td style="width: 67.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">24.1-27.2</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.0pt;"><p>Offer as a % of Outstanding Shares</p></td>
<td style="width: 67.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">22.47%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.0pt;"><p>Total Shares Outstanding (m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 67.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">690.2</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.0pt;"><p>Net Proceeds (HK$m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 67.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">3770.8</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.0pt;"><p>Market Capitalisation (HK$m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 67.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">            17,703.0</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.0pt;"><p>Enterprise Value (HK$m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 67.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;">          13,755.41</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><em>Source: Company disclosures, LSR (net proceeds, market cap and EV are at the midpoint of the IPO price range)</em></div><p>Medlive has entered into cornerstone investment agreements with several investors for an aggregate of HK$1.7bn (US$220m) which will account for approx. 43% of the offer shares at the midpoint of the IPO pricing. These cornerstone investors include Fidelity Management &amp; Research (FMR/US$40m), Fidelity Investments (FIL/US$40m), Tencent Mobility (US$40m), GIC (US$40m), Matthew Funds (US$20m), Springhill (US$20m) and OrbiMed Funds (US$20m).</p><p>Medlive plans to use approx. 40% of the net IPO proceeds on business expansion and user growth, approx. 30% of the proceeds on enhancing technological and R&amp;D capabilities and another 20% of the net proceeds on pursuing selected strategic investments or acquisition opportunities.</p>

Medlive Technology (2192 HK)  has announced the terms for its Hong Kong IPO where it plans to issue 155.1m shares at an indicative price range of HK$24.1-27.2 per share. At the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$25.65 per share, Medlive will raise net proceeds of HK$3.8bn (US$485.3m) at a market capitalisation of HK$17.7bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$13.8bn.
Medlive Technology IPO Details

No. of Shares Issued
     155,096,000


Price per Share (HK$)
24.1-27.2


Offer as a % of Outstanding Shares
22.47%


Total Shares Outstanding (m)
690.2


Net Proceeds (HK$m)
3770.8


Market Capitalisation (HK$m)
            17,703.0


Enterprise Value (HK$m)
          13,755.41

Source: Company disclosures, LSR (net proceeds, market cap and EV are at the midpoint of the IPO price range)Medlive has entered into cornerstone investment agreements with several investors for an aggregate of HK$1.7bn (US$220m) which will account for approx. 43% of the offer shares at the midpoint of the IPO pricing. These cornerstone investors include Fidelity Management &amp; Research (FMR/US$40m), Fidelity Investments (FIL/US$40m), Tencent Mobility (US$40m), GIC (US$40m), Matthew Funds (US$20m), Springhill (US$20m) and OrbiMed Funds (US$20m).Medlive plans to use approx. 40% of the net IPO proceeds on business expansion and user growth, approx. 30% of the proceeds on enhancing technological and R&amp;D capabilities and another 20% of the net proceeds on pursuing selected strategic investments or acquisition opportunities.

Medlive Technology IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Japan

JMDC Inc. offers information services. The Company provides medical data statistics, life insurance data statistics, health data platform management, and other services. JMDC provides its services throughout Japan.

Software Service, Inc. develops and sells medical information software for hospital uses.  The products include electronic medical carte and order entry system.  The Company also provides training and maintenance services.

Findex Inc plans, develops and maintains software products specialized in healthcare.  The Company also builds and provides medical net-work system for medical industry.

Medical Data Vision Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2003. The company's line of business includes developing integrated medical information systems, analysis of medical information, and business consulting for medical institutions.

ASAHI INTECC CO., LTD. manufactures medical tools as well as both medical and industrial-use stainless wire rope.  The Company's main products include catheters, guidewires, and miniature coils for endoscopic devices.

MEDIPAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION manufactures and sells medical tools and equipment, nursing equipment, and wholesales pharmaceuticals.

SYSMEX CORPORATION manufactures reagents and equipment for clinical tests including hematologic (blood) and immune tests. The Company also develops, manufactures, and trades particle analyzers such as blood coagulation analyzer and related software. Manufacturing and sales outside Japan include the United States, EMEA, China and Asia Pacific regions.

JEOL Ltd. manufactures electron optics instruments and analytical instruments including electron microscope, X-ray diffractometer and spectrometer and thermographs.  The Company also makes semiconductor manufacturing equipment, medical equipment and industrial equipment.

NIHON KOHDEN CORPORATION develops, manufactures, and sells medical equipment, transformers, and power switches and devices.  The Company's products include testing equipment for cerebral nerve such as electroencephalographs, circulatory systems, diagnostic equipment, catheters, biogenic monitoring systems such as electrocardiographs used into patient monitoring systems.

Alfresa Holdings Corporation is a holding company established through the merger of Azwell Inc. and Fukujin Co., Ltd.  The Company's subsidiaries mainly wholesale and manufacture medical related products including medicines, reagents, and medical tools and equipment.

Pro Medicus Limited develops and supplies proprietary software and IT solutions for large medical corporations and individual medical group practices.  The Group's services include billing and management systems for diagnostic imaging providers, clinical reporting systems, and appointment booking services.  Pro Medicus' e-mail system delivers encrypted diagnostic reports to group doctors.

Evolent Health, Inc. provides a purpose-built platform, powered by our technology, proprietary processes and integrated services, enables providers to migrate their economic orientation from fee-for-service, or FFS, reimbursement to payment models that reward high-quality and cost-effective care, or value-based payment models.

Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. develops and sells medical software, and provides technology supporting services and comprehensive information technology solutions to the health care industry.

Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. A (300253 CH)

Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. A

NextGen Healthcare, Inc. develops and markets healthcare information systems. The Company's systems automate medical group practices, physical hospitals, management service organizations, community health centers, and dental schools. NextGen Healthcare offers its services throughout the United States.

Omnicell, Inc. provides an integrated suite of clinical infrastructure and workflow automation solutions for healthcare facilities.  The Company's solutions include pharmacy and supply systems, clinical reference tools, an Internet-based procurement application, and decision support tools.  Omnicell sells and leases its products and services to a range of healthcare facilities.

HealthStream, Inc. offers a Web-based solution to the continuing education and training needs of the healthcare community.  The Company distributes numerous hours of continuing education and training content to doctors, nurses, allied health professionals, and other healthcare workers through its network of distribution partners.

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc. develops and markets clinical software. The Company's products include electronic health records, electronic prescribing, revenue cycle management, practice management, document management, medication services, hospital care management, emergency department information systems and homecare automation.

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX US)

EMIS Group Plc is a healthcare information technology company. The Company computerizes patients' medical records and allows primary, secondary and community healthcare practitioners to view and contribute to a patient's core medical record.

Craneware plc engages in the development, licensing, and ongoing support of computer software for the United States healthcare industry. The company offers access management and strategic pricing products comprising InSight Medical Necessity, which provides medical necessity validation and advance beneficiary notice creation; and Patient Charge Estimator software, which simplifies the process of providing patient bill estimates for inpatient and outpatient services. It also provides charge capture and pricing solutions include Chargemaster Toolkit that automates chargemaster management processes for capturing optimal legitimate reimbursement for hospitals; Physician Revenue Toolkit, a software for managing physician group charges, codes, RVUs, fee schedules, and related information; Pricing Analyzer software that simplifies the price modeling process; Reference Plus, a platform for hospitals to perform chargemaster analysis; Pharmacy ChargeLink, which improves charge capture, pricing, and cost management; and Supplies ChargeLink that optimize reimbursement for codable supplies by identifying missing or invalid charges, as well as offers supporting modules. In addition, the company offers coding integrity solutions consisting of Bill Analyzer, which automates claim and coding reviews to identify missed charges, billing errors, and categorize areas of risk. Further, it provides revenue recovery and retention solutions, including InSight Audit, a Web-based audit management tool to manage claim audits and workflow from one central location; InSight Payment Variance Analyzer, which identifies, tracks, and helps eliminate revenue lost in the form of underpaid claims; and InSight Denials that analyses, tracks, trends, and reports on denial data. Additionally, the company offers companion implementation and consulting services. Craneware plc was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.

Simulations Plus, Inc. develops drug discovery and development simulation software, which is licensed to and used in the conduct of drug research for pharmaceutical companies worldwide.  The Company's other businesses are based on its proprietary software technologies and provide support for the emerging pharmaceutical enterprise.

M3, Inc. supplies medical information services for doctors through the Internet. The Company also supports marketing of pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

M3 Inc (2413 JP)

M3: Strong 2Q Results but Earnings Growth Starts Decelerating

The Covid-19 outbreak supported strong growth in m3's earnings, however, with pandemic conditions easing off, earnings growth has started...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Medlive IPO Helped OP Surge in 1Q; Expect Earnings Weakness to Come Through in 2H

M3’s operating profits during 1Q benefitted from the IPO of Medlive on HKEx with a profit attribution of JPY9.1bn (19.6% of revenues and 36.9% of...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Medlive IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

Both our DCF-based valuation and relative valuation suggest that the company’s IPO is attractively priced and there is more room for share price to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Medlive Technology IPO: Trading Debut

Medlive will commence trading on 15 July. Medlive priced at HK$27.20 and closed 10% up at HK$29.90 in the Futu grey market. Our DCF sensitivity...

Arun George

Medlive Technology IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Based on our forecasts, Medlive’s indicative IPO pricing is still attractive even if we assume a discount rate of 12.0% and a 0% terminal growth...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)