IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

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<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hello-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33031:1" rel="noopener">Hello Inc (1883864D US)</a>, which is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a>, is China's third-largest local services platform by transaction volume, according to iResearch. Hello offers bike-sharing and e-bike sharing services known as <em>Hello Bike</em> and <em>Hello e-Bike</em>. It also has a carpooling marketplace known as <em>Hello Carpooling</em>. Hello is seeking to raise $1 billion through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports.   </p></div>
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<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hello-ipo-initiation-goodbye" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50795" rel="noopener">Hello IPO Initiation: Goodbye</a> we stated that Hello’s investor pitch is that its various businesses create a flywheel that drives user spending growth with limited user acquisition costs. However, Hello remains saddled with a core business (shared two-wheeler services) that has challenging prospects due to declining growth, low profitability and high cash burn.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hello-ipo-1q21-update-does-not-change-the-avoid-tag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51119" rel="noopener">Hello IPO: 1Q21 Update Does Not Change the Avoid Tag</a>, we noted that at first glance, the 1Q21 update looks stunning due to accelerating growth and margin progression. However, a closer look, suggests that business continues to face daunting challenges. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Hello's potential valuation range. </p></div>
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Hello Inc (1883864D US), which is backed by Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK), is China's third-largest local services platform by transaction volume, according to iResearch. Hello offers bike-sharing and e-bike sharing services known as Hello Bike and Hello e-Bike. It also has a carpooling marketplace known as Hello Carpooling. Hello is seeking to raise $1 billion through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports.   

In Hello IPO Initiation: Goodbye we stated that Hello’s investor pitch is that its various businesses create a flywheel that drives user spending growth with limited user acquisition costs. However, Hello remains saddled with a core business (shared two-wheeler services) that has challenging prospects due to declining growth, low profitability and high cash burn.
In Hello IPO: 1Q21 Update Does Not Change the Avoid Tag, we noted that at first glance, the 1Q21 update looks stunning due to accelerating growth and margin progression. However, a closer look, suggests that business continues to face daunting challenges. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Hello's potential valuation range. 



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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments The battle is on between Fortnite developer Epic Games (private) and Apple (AAPL) - a David and Goliath case which, in a nutshell, will ask whether Apple is acting fairly by charging developers a 15-30% fee for all revenues made via subscriptions and in-app purchases.</p>

Headline Developments The battle is on between Fortnite developer Epic Games (private) and Apple (AAPL) - a David and Goliath case which, in a nutshell, will ask whether Apple is acting fairly by charging developers a 15-30% fee for all revenues made via subscriptions and in-app purchases.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>The ride-hailing giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> announced on Tuesday (13th April 2021) that it plans to go public in the US via a SPAC merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>  at a proposed valuation (pro-forma) of approx. US$39.6bn.</p><p>In our previous insight on Grab’s SPAC deal, we discussed the company’s growth prospects and its financials. In this insight, we examine the company’s valuation using a SOTP.</p>

The ride-hailing giant Grab (0967655D SP) announced on Tuesday (13th April 2021) that it plans to go public in the US via a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)  at a proposed valuation (pro-forma) of approx. US$39.6bn.In our previous insight on Grab’s SPAC deal, we discussed the company’s growth prospects and its financials. In this insight, we examine the company’s valuation using a SOTP.

Grab: SOTP Suggests Steep Discount to Proposed SPAC Valuation

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> is Southeast Asia’s leading super-app and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/grab-spac-deal-delivering-the-goods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50305" rel="noopener">Grab SPAC Deal: Delivering the Goods</a>, we looked at Grab's fundamentals and management forecasts. We noted that Grab is using its super-app status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish.  </p><p>In this note, we look at the valuation. As a reminder, the deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>At first glance, Grab's implied multiples are eye-watering in comparison to global peers related to its delivery and mobility businesses. However, we think that judging Grab's multiples based on such peers is missing the point. Grab's key competitive advantage and investor pitch is that it can be credibly billed as a super-app rather than just a leading app in a narrow market category.</p>
<p>Super-apps tend to be rare and investors are starved of publicly listed opportunities. With the regulatory heat turned up on the Chinese super-apps, alternative super-app plays in Asia are likely to be in demand. When judged against global super-apps, Grab's implied multiples seems more justifiable for its forecast growth.  </p>
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Grab (0967655D SP) is Southeast Asia’s leading super-app and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US).In Grab SPAC Deal: Delivering the Goods, we looked at Grab's fundamentals and management forecasts. We noted that Grab is using its super-app status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish.  In this note, we look at the valuation. As a reminder, the deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue.
At first glance, Grab's implied multiples are eye-watering in comparison to global peers related to its delivery and mobility businesses. However, we think that judging Grab's multiples based on such peers is missing the point. Grab's key competitive advantage and investor pitch is that it can be credibly billed as a super-app rather than just a leading app in a narrow market category.
Super-apps tend to be rare and investors are starved of publicly listed opportunities. With the regulatory heat turned up on the Chinese super-apps, alternative super-app plays in Asia are likely to be in demand. When judged against global super-apps, Grab's implied multiples seems more justifiable for its forecast growth.  


Grab SPAC Deal: A Sensible Super-App Valuation?

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> is Southeast Asia’s leading superapp and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (21.7% stake), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US)</a> (16.6%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a> (8.7%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> (6.9%). </p><p>Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>. The deal proceeds include more than $4.0 billion of fully committed PIPE led by $750 million from Altimeter Capital Management. Investors in the PIPE include BlackRock, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Fidelity International, FMR, Janus Henderson Investors, Mubadala, Nuveen, Permodalan Nasional Berhad and Temasek. Altimeter will commit to a three-year lock-up period for its sponsor promote shares. </p><p>The deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue. Post-close of the transaction, the existing Grab shareholders will represent 87.7% of outstanding shares. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Over the years, Grab has transformed into a superapp that encompasses transactions related to transportation, eating, shopping, and digital payments. The transactions are high-frequency which tend to increase user stickiness. By spanning several categories, Grab has many opportunities to capture a user’s wallet spend. Grab is using its superapp status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish. We will look at Grab’s valuation in our next note.</p></div>

Grab (0967655D SP) is Southeast Asia’s leading superapp and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (21.7% stake), Uber (UBER US) (16.6%), DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH) (8.7%) and Toyota Motor (7203 JP) (6.9%). Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US). The deal proceeds include more than $4.0 billion of fully committed PIPE led by $750 million from Altimeter Capital Management. Investors in the PIPE include BlackRock, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Fidelity International, FMR, Janus Henderson Investors, Mubadala, Nuveen, Permodalan Nasional Berhad and Temasek. Altimeter will commit to a three-year lock-up period for its sponsor promote shares. The deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue. Post-close of the transaction, the existing Grab shareholders will represent 87.7% of outstanding shares. Over the years, Grab has transformed into a superapp that encompasses transactions related to transportation, eating, shopping, and digital payments. The transactions are high-frequency which tend to increase user stickiness. By spanning several categories, Grab has many opportunities to capture a user’s wallet spend. Grab is using its superapp status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish. We will look at Grab’s valuation in our next note.

United States

Lyft, Inc. provides online ridesharing services. The Company offers ride booking, payment processing, and car transportation services. Lyft serves customers in the United States.

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Lyft (LYFT US)

Hello IPO: Valuation First Look

Hello is seeking to raise $1 billion through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the...

Arun George

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #30

Headline Developments The battle is on between Fortnite developer Epic Games (private) and Apple (AAPL) - a David and Goliath case which, in a...

Granite Bay Capital

Grab: SOTP Suggests Steep Discount to Proposed SPAC Valuation

Our SOTP valuation implies significant downside to Grab’s pro-forma valuation of the proposed SPAC deal even after assigning generous target...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Grab SPAC Deal: A Sensible Super-App Valuation?

Grab's implied multiples are eye-watering in comparison to global peers related to its businesses. When judged against other global super-apps,...

Arun George

Grab SPAC Deal: Delivering the Goods

Grab has announced a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp which values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 bn. We think that Grab has strong...

Arun George

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