Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

The share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> has fallen by around 30% over the past three months from an all-time high of JPY3,826 (on 1st October 2018) to JPY2,705 on 24th December 2018. Prior to this, Recruit’s share price saw a strong upward rally during May-September following the company’s announcement that it would acquire Glassdoor Inc. (the company which operates the employment information website glassdoor.com).We expect Recruit’s consolidated revenue to grow 7.7% and 6.5% YoY in FY03/19E and FY03/20E respectively, driven by the acquisition of Glassdoor and steady growth in Japanese staffing operations, partially offset by a likely slowdown in global labour market activity. We also expect Recruit’s consolidated EBITDA margin to improve by around 50bps due to higher margin from Glassdoor.Despite the recent dip in share price and steady topline and bottom line growth over the forecast period, at a FY2 EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x, Recruit doesn’t look particularly attractive to us. Recruit’s internet advertising business and employment business peers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19603" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1">Yahoo Japan (4689 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1428" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1">Persol Holdings (2181 JP)</a> are trading at FY2 EV/EBITDAs of 7.7x and 9.6x respectively.<div class="content-caption">Key Financials FY03/18-20E</div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td>FY03/18</td>
<td>FY03/19E</td>
<td>FY03/20E</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Consolidated Revenue (JPYbn)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">2,171</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">2,338</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">2,490</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>YoY Growth %</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">11.9%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">7.7%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">6.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Consolidated EBITDA (JPYbn)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">258</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">288</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">312</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EBITDA Margin %</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">11.9%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">12.3%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">12.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div class="content-remarks">Source: Company Disclosures/LSR Estimates</div>

The share price of Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) has fallen by around 30% over the past three months from an all-time high of JPY3,826 (on 1st October 2018) to JPY2,705 on 24th December 2018. Prior to this, Recruit’s share price saw a strong upward rally during May-September following the company’s announcement that it would acquire Glassdoor Inc. (the company which operates the employment information website glassdoor.com).We expect Recruit’s consolidated revenue to grow 7.7% and 6.5% YoY in FY03/19E and FY03/20E respectively, driven by the acquisition of Glassdoor and steady growth in Japanese staffing operations, partially offset by a likely slowdown in global labour market activity. We also expect Recruit’s consolidated EBITDA margin to improve by around 50bps due to higher margin from Glassdoor.Despite the recent dip in share price and steady topline and bottom line growth over the forecast period, at a FY2 EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x, Recruit doesn’t look particularly attractive to us. Recruit’s internet advertising business and employment business peers, Yahoo Japan (4689 JP) and Persol Holdings (2181 JP) are trading at FY2 EV/EBITDAs of 7.7x and 9.6x respectively.Key Financials FY03/18-20E

 
FY03/18
FY03/19E
FY03/20E


Consolidated Revenue (JPYbn)
2,171
2,338
2,490


YoY Growth %
11.9%
7.7%
6.5%


Consolidated EBITDA (JPYbn)
258
288
312


EBITDA Margin %
11.9%
12.3%
12.5%

Source: Company Disclosures/LSR Estimates

Recruit Holdings Down 30% From October; Still Not Cheap

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/074/071/original/2018-12-28_11-57-31.png?1545965862" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="74071"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
THE <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13631" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1">GMO INTERNET (9449 JP)</a> STORY - GMO internet (GMO-i) has attracted much attention in the last eighteen months from an unusual trinity of value, activist and ‘cryptocurrency’ equity investors.
<ul class="">
<li>
VALUE- Many traditional, but mostly foreign, value investors have seen the persistent negative difference between GMO-i’s market capitalisation and the value of the company’s holdings in its eight listed consolidated subsidiaries as an opportunity to invest in GMO-i with a considerable ‘margin of safety’.</li>
<li>
ACTIVIST - Since July 2017, the activist investor, Oasis, has waged a so-far-unsuccessful campaign with the aim of improving GMO’s corporate governance, removing takeover defences, addressing a 'secularly undervalued stock price we are not able to tolerate' (sic), and redefining the role and influence of the company’s Chairman, President, Representative Director and largest shareholder, Masatoshi Kumagai.</li>
<li>'CRYPTO!' - In December 2017, GMO-i committed to spending more than ¥35b or 10% of non-current assets. The aim was threefold: to set up a bitcoin ‘mining’ headquarters in Switzerland (with the ‘mining’ operations being carried out at an undisclosed location in Scandinavia), to develop proprietary state-of-the-art 7nm-node 'mining chips', and, in due course, to sell GMO-branded and developed ‘mining’ machines. The move was hailed in the ‘crypto’ fraternity as GMO-i became the largest non-Chinese and the first well-established Internet conglomerate to make a major investment in ‘cryptocurrency’ infrastructure.</li>
</ul>
OUTSTANDING - Following the December 2017 announcement, trading volumes spiked into ‘Overtraded’ territory - as measured by our Volume Score. Many investors saw GMO-i shares as a safer way of gaining exposure to 'cryptocurrencies', even as the price of bitcoin began to subside. By early June 2018, GMO-i’s shares had reached a closing price of ¥3,020: up 157% from the low of the prior year and outperforming TOPIX by 135%. Whatever the primary driver of this outstanding performance, each of our trio of investor groups no doubt felt vindicated in their approach to the stock.
CRYPTO CLOSURE - On December 25th 2018, GMO-i’s shares reached a new 52-week low of ¥1,325, a decline of 56% from the June high. Year to date, GMO-i shares have now declined by 31%, underperforming TOPIX by nine percentage points. On the same day, GMO-i <a href="https://ir.gmo.jp/en/pdf/irlibrary/gmo_disclose_info20181225_e.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> that the company would post an extraordinary ¥35.5b loss for the fourth quarter, incurring an impairment loss of ¥11.5b in relation to the closure of the Swiss ‘mining’ headquarters and a loss of ¥24b to cover the closure of the ‘mining chip' and 'mining machine' development, manufacturing and sales businesses. GMO-i will continue to ‘mine’ bitcoin from its Tokyo headquarters and intends to relocate the 'mining' centre from Scandinavia to (sic) 'a region that will allow us to secure cleaner and less expensive power supply, but we have not yet decided the details’. Unlisted subsidiary GMO Coin's 'cryptocurrency' exchange will also continue to operate, and the previously-announced plans to launch a ¥-based ‘stablecoin’ in 2019 will proceed. In the two trading days following this announcement, the shares have recovered 13% to ¥1,505. 
RAIDING THE LISTCO PIGGY BANK - As we shall relate, this is the second time since listing that GMO-i has written off a significant new business venture which the company had commenced only a short time before. In both cases, the company was forced to sell stakes in its listed consolidated subsidiaries to offset the resulting losses. On this occasion, the sale of shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22762" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22762:1">GMO Financial (7177 JP)</a> (GMO-F) on September 25 2018, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1">GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a> (GMO-PG) on December 17 2018, raised a combined ¥55.6b and, after the deduction of the yet-to-be-determined tax on the realised gains, should more than offset the ‘crypto’ losses. <a href="https://ir.gmo.jp/en/pdf/irlibrary/gmo_disclose_info20181225_2e.pdf" target="_blank">According </a>to CFO Yasuda, any surplus from this exercise will be used to pay down debt. Also discussed below and in keeping with this GMO-i ‘MO’, in 2015, the company twice sold shares in its listed subsidiaries to ‘smooth out' less-than-desirable operating results.
<div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below we will cover the following topics:-
I: THE GMO-i TRACK RECORD - TOP-DOWN v. BOTTOM UP
<ul>
<li>BOTTOM LINE No. 1: NET INCOME</li>
<li>BOTTOM LINE No.2 - COMPREHENSIVE INCOME</li>
</ul>
II: THE GMO-i BUSINESS MODEL - THROWING JELLY AT THE WALL
III: THE GMO-i BALANCE SHEET - NOT SO HAPPY RETURNS
IV: THE GMO-i CASH FLOW - DEBT-FUNDED CASH PILE
V: THE GMO-i VALUATION - TWO METHODS &gt; SAME RESULT
<ul>
<li>VALUATION METHOD No.1 - THE 'LISTCO DISCOUNT'</li>
<li>VALUATION METHOD No.2 - RESIDUAL INCOME</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="content-highlight">
CONCLUSION - For those unable or unwilling to read further, we conclude that GMO-i 'rump' is a grossly-overrated business. Despite having started and spun off several valuable GMO Group entities, CEO Kumagai bears responsibility for two decades of serial and very poorly-timed ‘mal-investments’. As a result, the stock market has, except for the ‘cryptocurrency’-induced frenzy of the first six months of 2018, historically not accorded GMO-i any premium for future growth, and has correctly looked beyond the ‘siren song’ of the ‘HoldCo discount’. According to the two valuation methodologies described below, the company is, however, fairly valued at the current share price of ¥1,460. Investors looking for a return to the market-implied 3% perpetual growth rate of mid–2018 are likely to be as disappointed as those wishing for BTC to triple from here.
</div>



Source: Japan Analytics

THE GMO INTERNET (9449 JP) STORY - GMO internet (GMO-i) has attracted much attention in the last eighteen months from an unusual trinity of value, activist and ‘cryptocurrency’ equity investors.


VALUE- Many traditional, but mostly foreign, value investors have seen the persistent negative difference between GMO-i’s market capitalisation and the value of the company’s holdings in its eight listed consolidated subsidiaries as an opportunity to invest in GMO-i with a considerable ‘margin of safety’.

ACTIVIST - Since July 2017, the activist investor, Oasis, has waged a so-far-unsuccessful campaign with the aim of improving GMO’s corporate governance, removing takeover defences, addressing a 'secularly undervalued stock price we are not able to tolerate' (sic), and redefining the role and influence of the company’s Chairman, President, Representative Director and largest shareholder, Masatoshi Kumagai.
'CRYPTO!' - In December 2017, GMO-i committed to spending more than ¥35b or 10% of non-current assets. The aim was threefold: to set up a bitcoin ‘mining’ headquarters in Switzerland (with the ‘mining’ operations being carried out at an undisclosed location in Scandinavia), to develop proprietary state-of-the-art 7nm-node 'mining chips', and, in due course, to sell GMO-branded and developed ‘mining’ machines. The move was hailed in the ‘crypto’ fraternity as GMO-i became the largest non-Chinese and the first well-established Internet conglomerate to make a major investment in ‘cryptocurrency’ infrastructure.

OUTSTANDING - Following the December 2017 announcement, trading volumes spiked into ‘Overtraded’ territory - as measured by our Volume Score. Many investors saw GMO-i shares as a safer way of gaining exposure to 'cryptocurrencies', even as the price of bitcoin began to subside. By early June 2018, GMO-i’s shares had reached a closing price of ¥3,020: up 157% from the low of the prior year and outperforming TOPIX by 135%. Whatever the primary driver of this outstanding performance, each of our trio of investor groups no doubt felt vindicated in their approach to the stock.
CRYPTO CLOSURE - On December 25th 2018, GMO-i’s shares reached a new 52-week low of ¥1,325, a decline of 56% from the June high. Year to date, GMO-i shares have now declined by 31%, underperforming TOPIX by nine percentage points. On the same day, GMO-i announced that the company would post an extraordinary ¥35.5b loss for the fourth quarter, incurring an impairment loss of ¥11.5b in relation to the closure of the Swiss ‘mining’ headquarters and a loss of ¥24b to cover the closure of the ‘mining chip' and 'mining machine' development, manufacturing and sales businesses. GMO-i will continue to ‘mine’ bitcoin from its Tokyo headquarters and intends to relocate the 'mining' centre from Scandinavia to (sic) 'a region that will allow us to secure cleaner and less expensive power supply, but we have not yet decided the details’. Unlisted subsidiary GMO Coin's 'cryptocurrency' exchange will also continue to operate, and the previously-announced plans to launch a ¥-based ‘stablecoin’ in 2019 will proceed. In the two trading days following this announcement, the shares have recovered 13% to ¥1,505. 
RAIDING THE LISTCO PIGGY BANK - As we shall relate, this is the second time since listing that GMO-i has written off a significant new business venture which the company had commenced only a short time before. In both cases, the company was forced to sell stakes in its listed consolidated subsidiaries to offset the resulting losses. On this occasion, the sale of shares in GMO Financial (7177 JP) (GMO-F) on September 25 2018, and GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP) (GMO-PG) on December 17 2018, raised a combined ¥55.6b and, after the deduction of the yet-to-be-determined tax on the realised gains, should more than offset the ‘crypto’ losses. According to CFO Yasuda, any surplus from this exercise will be used to pay down debt. Also discussed below and in keeping with this GMO-i ‘MO’, in 2015, the company twice sold shares in its listed subsidiaries to ‘smooth out' less-than-desirable operating results.

In the DETAIL section below we will cover the following topics:-
I: THE GMO-i TRACK RECORD - TOP-DOWN v. BOTTOM UP

BOTTOM LINE No. 1: NET INCOME
BOTTOM LINE No.2 - COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

II: THE GMO-i BUSINESS MODEL - THROWING JELLY AT THE WALL
III: THE GMO-i BALANCE SHEET - NOT SO HAPPY RETURNS
IV: THE GMO-i CASH FLOW - DEBT-FUNDED CASH PILE
V: THE GMO-i VALUATION - TWO METHODS &gt; SAME RESULT

VALUATION METHOD No.1 - THE 'LISTCO DISCOUNT'
VALUATION METHOD No.2 - RESIDUAL INCOME



CONCLUSION - For those unable or unwilling to read further, we conclude that GMO-i 'rump' is a grossly-overrated business. Despite having started and spun off several valuable GMO Group entities, CEO Kumagai bears responsibility for two decades of serial and very poorly-timed ‘mal-investments’. As a result, the stock market has, except for the ‘cryptocurrency’-induced frenzy of the first six months of 2018, historically not accorded GMO-i any premium for future growth, and has correctly looked beyond the ‘siren song’ of the ‘HoldCo discount’. According to the two valuation methodologies described below, the company is, however, fairly valued at the current share price of ¥1,460. Investors looking for a return to the market-implied 3% perpetual growth rate of mid–2018 are likely to be as disappointed as those wishing for BTC to triple from here.


GMO Internet (9447 JP) - Grossly or Modestly Overrated?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>’s market cap has consistently traded below its NAV. A popular expectation was that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27445" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> IPO should be a catalyst to narrow the conglomerate discount (holdco discount). On its trading debut today, SoftBank Corp's shares fell 14.5% from its IPO price of JPY1,500 to JPY1,282 per share - the worst first-day decline ever for a major IPO in Japan since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8280:1">Japan Display (6740 JP)</a> IPO in 2014. <div class="content-highlight">In our previous research, we stated that the SoftBank Corp IPO is unlikely to meaningfully narrow SoftBank’s holdco discount. Our updated SoftBank SoTP analysis which reflects SoftBank Corp's trading debut suggests that SoftBank's holdco discount has not meaningfully narrowed.</div>

Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s market cap has consistently traded below its NAV. A popular expectation was that the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) IPO should be a catalyst to narrow the conglomerate discount (holdco discount). On its trading debut today, SoftBank Corp's shares fell 14.5% from its IPO price of JPY1,500 to JPY1,282 per share - the worst first-day decline ever for a major IPO in Japan since the Japan Display (6740 JP) IPO in 2014. In our previous research, we stated that the SoftBank Corp IPO is unlikely to meaningfully narrow SoftBank’s holdco discount. Our updated SoftBank SoTP analysis which reflects SoftBank Corp's trading debut suggests that SoftBank's holdco discount has not meaningfully narrowed.

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): SoftBank Corp IPO Has Failed to Meaningfully Narrow the Holdco Discount

Specialist in Japanese equities, Kheiron Group

Nathan Ramler, CFA

Specialist in Japanese equities

Kheiron Group

Tokyo-based with experience in global equity markets and M&A. Striving to add value and insight. 

Specialists in Japan

The price has been set. The book building is done. Like watching a sleek race car aligned on the starting grid, the world eagerly awaits the start of trading for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27445" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> on Wednesday, 19 December. We are also eager to see the stock go live. It's not only nostalgia for the stock code "9434" to be brought back into the race, but it will be helpful to be able to compare the stock and to gain better insights into the domestic Japanese telecom industry.That said, the past few weeks have been full of drama, and some of the drama has longer-term implications. In this insight, we take a more detailed look at some of the challenges facing SoftBank Corp. and some of the concerns that may give investors pause, or at least some things to keep in mind, over the months ahead.Specifically, we look at issues related to:<ul>
<li>Network outages</li>
<li>Huawei network equipment</li>
<li>Corporate governance</li>
<li>Regulatory headwinds</li>
<li>Competitive threats</li>
</ul>

The price has been set. The book building is done. Like watching a sleek race car aligned on the starting grid, the world eagerly awaits the start of trading for Softbank Corp (9434 JP) on Wednesday, 19 December. We are also eager to see the stock go live. It's not only nostalgia for the stock code "9434" to be brought back into the race, but it will be helpful to be able to compare the stock and to gain better insights into the domestic Japanese telecom industry.That said, the past few weeks have been full of drama, and some of the drama has longer-term implications. In this insight, we take a more detailed look at some of the challenges facing SoftBank Corp. and some of the concerns that may give investors pause, or at least some things to keep in mind, over the months ahead.Specifically, we look at issues related to:
Network outages
Huawei network equipment
Corporate governance
Regulatory headwinds
Competitive threats


Start Your Engines: SoftBank Corp (9434 JP) Is Off to the Races

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>’s market cap has consistently traded below its NAV. A popular narrative seems to be that the upcoming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27445" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> IPO should narrow the conglomerate discount (holdco discount). SoftBank Corp’s IPO price range will be announced on 30 November, followed by the final IPO price on 10 December.<div class="content-highlight">At least in theory, the listing of SoftBank Corp should help in determining the underlying value of SoftBank (on a NAV basis) with more precision and hence narrow the conglomerate discount. However, we disagree and contend that the SoftBank Corp IPO is unlikely to meaningfully narrow SoftBank’s current conglomerate discount.</div>

Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s market cap has consistently traded below its NAV. A popular narrative seems to be that the upcoming Softbank Corp (9434 JP) IPO should narrow the conglomerate discount (holdco discount). SoftBank Corp’s IPO price range will be announced on 30 November, followed by the final IPO price on 10 December.At least in theory, the listing of SoftBank Corp should help in determining the underlying value of SoftBank (on a NAV basis) with more precision and hence narrow the conglomerate discount. However, we disagree and contend that the SoftBank Corp IPO is unlikely to meaningfully narrow SoftBank’s current conglomerate discount.

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): Don't Hold Your Breath on SoftBank Corp IPO Closing the Holdco Discount

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

Recruit Holdings Down 30% From October; Still Not Cheap

The share price of Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) has fallen by around 30% over the past three months from an all-time high of JPY3,826 (on 1st October...

Supun Walpola

GMO Internet (9447 JP) - Grossly or Modestly Overrated?

THE GMO INTERNET (9449 JP) STORY - GMO internet (GMO-i) has attracted much attention in the last eighteen months from an unusual trinity of value,...

Campbell Gunn

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): SoftBank Corp IPO Has Failed to Meaningfully Narrow the Holdco Discount

Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s market cap has consistently traded below its NAV. A popular expectation was that the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) IPO should...

Arun George

Start Your Engines: SoftBank Corp (9434 JP) Is Off to the Races

The price has been set. The book building is done. Like watching a sleek race car aligned on the starting grid, the world eagerly awaits the start...

Nathan Ramler, CFA

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): Don't Hold Your Breath on SoftBank Corp IPO Closing the Holdco Discount

Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s market cap has consistently traded below its NAV. A popular narrative seems to be that the upcoming Softbank Corp (9434...

Arun George

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