Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the first quarter where full YoY comps are available, ZHD missed Redex and consensus expectations as demand for eCommerce and online ads slowed</li>
<li>Management has kept FY22 financial guidance intact for now but economic uncertainty and the consolidation of loss-making PayPay in October makes an already-disappointing EBITDA target more challenging</li>
<li>We think FY22 EBITDA guidance is likely to be revised down heading into Q2 results</li>
</ul>


In the first quarter where full YoY comps are available, ZHD missed Redex and consensus expectations as demand for eCommerce and online ads slowed
Management has kept FY22 financial guidance intact for now but economic uncertainty and the consolidation of loss-making PayPay in October makes an already-disappointing EBITDA target more challenging
We think FY22 EBITDA guidance is likely to be revised down heading into Q2 results


Z Holdings (Neutral) - Q1 22 Results Reaction: Weak Results Highlight Tough Year Ahead

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Zozo recorded its highest profit ever last year, countering the sceptics once again. </li>
<li>The company has shrugged off the uncertainties surrounding the departure of its founder and, while sticking to its core values, is looking for new growth beyond fashion e-commerce.</li>
<li>While there are some headwinds, Zozo has a solid set of strategies in place to offset these and find new growth streams.</li>
</ul>


Zozo recorded its highest profit ever last year, countering the sceptics once again. 
The company has shrugged off the uncertainties surrounding the departure of its founder and, while sticking to its core values, is looking for new growth beyond fashion e-commerce.
While there are some headwinds, Zozo has a solid set of strategies in place to offset these and find new growth streams.


Zozo: Social Fashion Commerce, Omnichannel and New Ventures

<ul>
<li>Softbank and Z Holdings have confirmed the conversion of PayPay preferred equity into common in-line with previous guidance for ownership levels and a revaluation gain</li>
<li>Z Holdings will sell the credit card business to PayPay to align transactional fintech which makes distribution, product development and branding easier</li>
<li>Our outlook has not changed but we are lowering our target price to reflect diminished expectations announced at Q4 results. We remain at Buy but prefer NTT/KDDI in telcos</li>
</ul>


Softbank and Z Holdings have confirmed the conversion of PayPay preferred equity into common in-line with previous guidance for ownership levels and a revaluation gain
Z Holdings will sell the credit card business to PayPay to align transactional fintech which makes distribution, product development and branding easier
Our outlook has not changed but we are lowering our target price to reflect diminished expectations announced at Q4 results. We remain at Buy but prefer NTT/KDDI in telcos


Softbank Corp (Buy) - PayPay Conversion, Re-Valuation Gain Confirmed for Q3

<ul>
<li>Yamato Transport is Japan’s largest courier service, owning nearly 50% share, but even the biggest player needs to race to keep up with booming demand for e-commerce. </li>
<li>Over the past six years, it has gradually built an ecosystem of online tools and physical infrastructure to help vendors and customers, importing knowhow when needed.</li>
<li>So far, these measures have helped it stay on top of spiralling demand but there remain pressures.</li>
</ul>


Yamato Transport is Japan’s largest courier service, owning nearly 50% share, but even the biggest player needs to race to keep up with booming demand for e-commerce. 
Over the past six years, it has gradually built an ecosystem of online tools and physical infrastructure to help vendors and customers, importing knowhow when needed.
So far, these measures have helped it stay on top of spiralling demand but there remain pressures.


<ul>
<li>Z Holdings will integrate its eCommerce platforms in a move that boosts the PayPay brand and may generate some (very) modest synergies</li>
<li>We are publishing updated forecasts and setting a new target price at ¥550 but we remain cautious on the shares in the near term as consensus remains high</li>
<li>Shares of ZHD still appear expensive at 14-16x our estimate of FY22e EBITDA and are more expensive than Alphabet at these levels (12x EBITDA)</li>
</ul>


Z Holdings will integrate its eCommerce platforms in a move that boosts the PayPay brand and may generate some (very) modest synergies
We are publishing updated forecasts and setting a new target price at ¥550 but we remain cautious on the shares in the near term as consensus remains high
Shares of ZHD still appear expensive at 14-16x our estimate of FY22e EBITDA and are more expensive than Alphabet at these levels (12x EBITDA)


Z Holdings (Neutral) - PayPay Rebranding of ECommerce; We Remain Cautious in a Rebuilding Year

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

Z Holdings (Neutral) - Q1 22 Results Reaction: Weak Results Highlight Tough Year Ahead

The recent share price rally looks overdone with economic uncertainty lingering and PayPay consolidation ahead. Coming out of Q1, concerns on a...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Corp (Buy) - PayPay Conversion, Re-Valuation Gain Confirmed for Q3

Softbank / Z Holdings have finalized the PayPay convert for Q3 22. This is largely as expected and our outlook does not change although we have...

Kirk Boodry

Yamato Builds Courier Ecosystem

Yamato Transport owns close to 50% of fulfilment in Japan and is so far managing to stay on top of demand through new ideas and a focus on reducing...

Michael Causton

Z Holdings (Neutral) - PayPay Rebranding of ECommerce; We Remain Cautious in a Rebuilding Year

Z Holdings will integrate its two eCommerce platforms but this appears to be more about ambitious growth targets for fintech. We are publishing new...

Kirk Boodry

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Z Holdings (Neutral) - Q1 22 Results Reaction: Weak Results Highlight Tough Year Ahead

The recent share price rally looks overdone with economic uncertainty lingering and PayPay consolidation ahead. Coming out of Q1, concerns on a...

Kirk Boodry

Zozo: Social Fashion Commerce, Omnichannel and New Ventures

Zozo continues to confound sceptics. Despite slowing e-commerce growth post-Covid, Zozo has solid strategies in place to continue to expand and...

Michael Causton

Softbank Corp (Buy) - PayPay Conversion, Re-Valuation Gain Confirmed for Q3

Softbank / Z Holdings have finalized the PayPay convert for Q3 22. This is largely as expected and our outlook does not change although we have...

Kirk Boodry

Yamato Builds Courier Ecosystem

Yamato Transport owns close to 50% of fulfilment in Japan and is so far managing to stay on top of demand through new ideas and a focus on reducing...

Michael Causton

Z Holdings (Neutral) - PayPay Rebranding of ECommerce; We Remain Cautious in a Rebuilding Year

Z Holdings will integrate its two eCommerce platforms but this appears to be more about ambitious growth targets for fintech. We are publishing new...

Kirk Boodry