Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The PayPay conversion is complete and management is focused on managing costs, which is reassuring for ZHD financial targets and for an eventual IPO</li>
<li>There was less said about the latter, however, whilst detail on the valuation gain that parent Softbank Corp needs to hit its own operating income target has not been confirmed</li>
<li>Our valuation of ¥500bn for PayPay looks more reasonable as 50-73% YTD declines in public comps have brought trading multiples in line (PayPay at 5x FY22e revenue versus 5-8x)</li>
</ul>


The PayPay conversion is complete and management is focused on managing costs, which is reassuring for ZHD financial targets and for an eventual IPO
There was less said about the latter, however, whilst detail on the valuation gain that parent Softbank Corp needs to hit its own operating income target has not been confirmed
Our valuation of ¥500bn for PayPay looks more reasonable as 50-73% YTD declines in public comps have brought trading multiples in line (PayPay at 5x FY22e revenue versus 5-8x)


Z Holdings / PayPay - A Focus on Margin Improvement as ZHD Moves to Consolidate

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration</li>
<li>NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held </li>
<li>The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage</li>
</ul>


The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration
NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held 
The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage


Japan Telecoms/Internet - A Quick Look at Public Equity Portfolios

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/askul-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16807:1" rel="noopener">Askul Corp (2678 JP)</a> posted the best revenue growth in six quarters as both B2B and consumer product sales accelerated</li>
<li>The corresponding operating income decline of 10% is less welcome but that includes a front-loading of planned growth investments and full year guidance of 1% growth is unchanged</li>
<li>We are tagging this insight as bearish as headlines of a 10% OP decline might not be as well received as the top-line story </li>
</ul>



Askul Corp (2678 JP) posted the best revenue growth in six quarters as both B2B and consumer product sales accelerated
The corresponding operating income decline of 10% is less welcome but that includes a front-loading of planned growth investments and full year guidance of 1% growth is unchanged
We are tagging this insight as bearish as headlines of a 10% OP decline might not be as well received as the top-line story 


Askul Q1 23 Results Reaction: Solid Revenue but OP Down on Front-Loaded Investments

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>E-Commerce sales of physical goods in Japan jumped nearly 9% in FY2021.</li>
<li>Although this was well down on the pandemic-induced surge the year before, it is still higher than in any year since 2016.</li>
<li>This leaves the sector well on track to become the largest single format channel. Total sales finished above ¥20.6 trillion.</li>
</ul>


E-Commerce sales of physical goods in Japan jumped nearly 9% in FY2021.
Although this was well down on the pandemic-induced surge the year before, it is still higher than in any year since 2016.
This leaves the sector well on track to become the largest single format channel. Total sales finished above ¥20.6 trillion.


E-Commerce in Japan 2021-22: Another High Growth Year

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>The sell-side continues to focus on near-term quarterly numbers, while missing the long-term transformation of the Group </li>
<li>The combination of Yahoo, Line and PayPay gives Z HD the best first-party data access in the whole of Japan – a clear winner in online advertising </li>
<li>Perfect timing of the PayPay consolidation as losses have peaked.   </li>
</ul>


The sell-side continues to focus on near-term quarterly numbers, while missing the long-term transformation of the Group 
The combination of Yahoo, Line and PayPay gives Z HD the best first-party data access in the whole of Japan – a clear winner in online advertising 
Perfect timing of the PayPay consolidation as losses have peaked.   


Z Holdings (4689) | Transformation Is Clearly Underway

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

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Z Holdings (4689) | Transformation Is Clearly Underway

The sell-side continues to focus on near-term quarterly numbers, while missing the long-term transformation of the Group

Mark Chadwick

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