Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Della Valles and LVMH-backed L Catterton announced an agreement to launch a voluntary tender offer to buy 36% of Italian luxury group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tod-s-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21231:1" rel="noopener">Tod's SpA (TOD IM)</a> at €43/share to take it private.</li>
<li>In spite of the 31% premium to the 3-month VWAP, and the loss of brand equity by Tod's the offer seems cheap on a multiples basis, considering turnaround potential.</li>
<li>Considering a 95% squeeze-out threshold, 80.4% of the float must tender, which is high. A sweetening may be needed, although the offeror threatens with a merger with itself to delist.</li>
</ul>


The Della Valles and LVMH-backed L Catterton announced an agreement to launch a voluntary tender offer to buy 36% of Italian luxury group Tod's SpA (TOD IM) at €43/share to take it private.
In spite of the 31% premium to the 3-month VWAP, and the loss of brand equity by Tod's the offer seems cheap on a multiples basis, considering turnaround potential.
Considering a 95% squeeze-out threshold, 80.4% of the float must tender, which is high. A sweetening may be needed, although the offeror threatens with a merger with itself to delist.


Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. </li>
<li>The long thesis is simple - I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.</li>
<li>Blackstone just announced a potential bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.</li>
</ul>



Shiseido Company (4911 JP) relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. 
The long thesis is simple - I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.
Blackstone just announced a potential bid for L'Occitane (973 HK), which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.


Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  </li>
<li>China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft</li>
<li>The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    </li>
</ul>


European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  
China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft
The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    


LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide the income statement comparisons of the eight largest global luxury brand Korea operations including Louis Vuitton Korea, Prada Korea, Ralph Lauren Korea, and Moncler Korea.</li>
<li>In 2022, Korea spent $16.8 billion in luxury goods, representing per capita consumption of $325 per person, surpassing the United States ($280 per person) and China ($55 per person). </li>
<li>Luxury brand spending in Korea is often a leading indicator of global luxury brand spending. Luxury brand spending in Korea has been weak this year and this continued in 3Q23.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide the income statement comparisons of the eight largest global luxury brand Korea operations including Louis Vuitton Korea, Prada Korea, Ralph Lauren Korea, and Moncler Korea.
In 2022, Korea spent $16.8 billion in luxury goods, representing per capita consumption of $325 per person, surpassing the United States ($280 per person) and China ($55 per person). 
Luxury brand spending in Korea is often a leading indicator of global luxury brand spending. Luxury brand spending in Korea has been weak this year and this continued in 3Q23.


Income Statement Analysis of Global Luxury Brand Korea Operations and Luxury Brand Spending Slowdown

France

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is a diversified luxury goods group. The Company produces and sells wine, cognac, perfumes, cosmetics, luggage, and watches and jewelry.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Second Time Around

The Della Valles and LVMH-backed L Catterton announced an agreement to launch a voluntary tender offer to buy 36% of Italian luxury group Tod's at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Shiseido (4911 JP): This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

Shiseido heavily relies on Japan and China for sales, and with expected improvements in these regions, the company's attractive valuation makes it...

Steve

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

Income Statement Analysis of Global Luxury Brand Korea Operations and Luxury Brand Spending Slowdown

In this insight, we provide income statement comparisons of the eight largest global luxury brand Korea operations including Louis Vuitton Korea,...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Second Time Around

The Della Valles and LVMH-backed L Catterton announced an agreement to launch a voluntary tender offer to buy 36% of Italian luxury group Tod's at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Shiseido (4911 JP): This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

​Shiseido heavily relies on Japan and China for sales, and with expected improvements in these regions, the company's attractive valuation makes it...

Steve

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

​European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

Income Statement Analysis of Global Luxury Brand Korea Operations and Luxury Brand Spending Slowdown

In this insight, we provide income statement comparisons of the eight largest global luxury brand Korea operations including Louis Vuitton Korea,...

Douglas Kim

Shiseido heavily relies on Japan and China for sales, and with expected improvements in these regions, the company's attractive valuation makes it...

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...