Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/ 2 deletions for the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index and no constituent changes for the CSI Liquor Index.</li>
<li>The largest flows arise as a result of capping of constituents to 15% of the index weight. Impact on the stocks varies from 0.2-0.6 days of ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wei-long-grape-wine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24939:1" rel="noopener">WeiLong Grape Wine</a> outperformed the deletes in early October, but the deletes moved higher and closed the gap. The gap has started to open up again in the last week.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/ 2 deletions for the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index and no constituent changes for the CSI Liquor Index.
The largest flows arise as a result of capping of constituents to 15% of the index weight. Impact on the stocks varies from 0.2-0.6 days of ADV.

WeiLong Grape Wine outperformed the deletes in early October, but the deletes moved higher and closed the gap. The gap has started to open up again in the last week.


CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance: Capping to Drive Larger Flows

Gansu Huangtai Wine Mktg Ind Co., / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period ended on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 29 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.</li>
<li>There could be 2 adds for the CSI Liquor Index and 4 adds/ 2 deletes for the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index.</li>
<li>Some stocks could be added to both indices, increasing the flow and impact. Based on the passive assets tracking the indices, the estimated round-trip trade is CNY 3.4bn (US$477m).</li>
</ul>


The review period ended on 31 October, the changes should be announced on 29 November and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.
There could be 2 adds for the CSI Liquor Index and 4 adds/ 2 deletes for the CSI Alcoholic Drink Index.
Some stocks could be added to both indices, increasing the flow and impact. Based on the passive assets tracking the indices, the estimated round-trip trade is CNY 3.4bn (US$477m).


CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: Getting Tipsy with It

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 16th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$600.9 million, led by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and offset by financials, communication services, health care.</li>
<li>Outflows were driven by Material, Industries and Consumer Discretionary sectors. We highlight flows for CATL (300750 CH).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 16th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$600.9 million, led by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and offset by financials, communication services, health care.
Outflows were driven by Material, Industries and Consumer Discretionary sectors. We highlight flows for CATL (300750 CH).


<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 22nd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$281.8 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by industrials, materials, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Chongqing Changan Automobile, CMB, Zhongji Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 22nd.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$281.8 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by industrials, materials, consumer discretionary.
We highlight flows for CATL, Chongqing Changan Automobile, CMB, Zhongji Innolight.


Northbound Flows (Dec 22nd): CATL, Chongqing Changan Automobile, CMB, Zhongji Innolight

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 18.6bn of A-shares on slightly lighter activity. Friday saw large NORTHBOUND net buys early in the day but ended a net sell.</li>
<li>Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 18.6bn of A-shares on slightly lighter activity. Friday saw large NORTHBOUND net buys early in the day but ended a net sell.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

China

Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells spirits products worldwide. The Company also produces glass products, manages hotels, and invests in the real estate business.

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Luzhou Laojiao Co Ltd A (000568 CH)

CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance: Capping to Drive Larger Flows

No change for Liquor Index; 3 changes for the Alcoholic Drink index. The largest flows will be in stocks that are capped. The add outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

CSI Liquor/ Alcoholic Drink Index Rebalance Preview: Getting Tipsy with It

There could be 2 adds for the Liquor Index and 4 adds/2 deletes for the Alcoholic Drink Index. Estimated round-trip trade is CNY 3.4bn (US$477m)....

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Aug 16th): CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CATL (ticker: 300750 CH).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Dec 22nd): CATL, Chongqing Changan Automobile, CMB, Zhongji Innolight

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, Chongqing Changan Automobile, CMB, Zhongji...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

NORTHBOUND Mainland Connect saw significant net outflows. It would have been a lot smaller but Friday mid-day saw a HUGE net buy day become a net...

Travis Lundy

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