Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q1FY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%.</li>
<li>Record high quarterly revenue in the U.S. market, double-digit revenue growth in India branded prescription business, and continued strong momentum in South Africa drove overall performance.</li>
<li>Cipla is well-positioned for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth through FY27. Sitting on a robust cash balance of INR90B, Cipla is eyeing on M&amp;A. Valuation still looks reasonable.</li>
</ul>


In Q1FY25, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%.
Record high quarterly revenue in the U.S. market, double-digit revenue growth in India branded prescription business, and continued strong momentum in South Africa drove overall performance.
Cipla is well-positioned for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth through FY27. Sitting on a robust cash balance of INR90B, Cipla is eyeing on M&amp;A. Valuation still looks reasonable.


Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akums-drugs-and-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40915:1" rel="noopener">Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$222m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.</li>
</ul>



Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) is looking to raise up to US$222m in its upcoming India IPO.
Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas.
In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.


Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO - RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akums-drugs-and-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40915:1" rel="noopener">Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$239m in its upcoming India IPO. </li>
<li>Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) is looking to raise up to US$239m in its upcoming India IPO. 
Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO - Profitable but Needs to Scale up More

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The India Pharma &amp; Healthcare sector is expected to maintain the growth momentum in Q1FY25E.</li><li>We expect our coverage universe to see 11%/13% YoY sales/EBITDA growth.</li><li>Our assumptions – (1) Pharma coverage to see 10% YoY sales growth, largely led by 12% YoY growth in India business and ~6% QoQ growth in the US business, which will be driven by moderate price erosion, steady traction in gRevlimid/gSpiriva, new launches (gMyrbetriq), and steady traction in specialty business</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The India Pharma &amp; Healthcare sector is expected to maintain the growth momentum in Q1FY25E.We expect our coverage universe to see 11%/13% YoY sales/EBITDA growth.Our assumptions – (1) Pharma coverage to see 10% YoY sales growth, largely led by 12% YoY growth in India business and ~6% QoQ growth in the US business, which will be driven by moderate price erosion, steady traction in gRevlimid/gSpiriva, new launches (gMyrbetriq), and steady traction in specialty businessContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pharma and Healthcare (Q1FY25E Results Preview): Start the Year on a Strong Nod

India

Lupin Limited manufactures bulk actives and formulations. The principal bulk actives manufactured by it include Rifampicin, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (anti-TB), Cephalosporins (anti-infectives) and cardiovasculars. The company also possesses competencies in phytomedicines, in which medicines are made out of plant and herbal resources supported by the discipline of modern medicine.

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Lupin Ltd (LPC IN)

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

In Q1FY25, Cipla posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%, ahead...

Tina Banerjee

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO - RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals is looking to raise up to US$222m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and share...

Ethan Aw

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO - Profitable but Needs to Scale up More

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) is looking to raise up to US$239m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Ethan Aw

Pharma and Healthcare (Q1FY25E Results Preview): Start the Year on a Strong Nod

The India Pharma & Healthcare sector is expected to maintain the growth momentum in Q1FY25E. We expect our coverage universe to see 11%/13% YoY...

HDFC Securities

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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