Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In our estimate, WinSemi’s 4Q21 revenue/GM is NT$70bn/38.9% and 1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$68bn/38% respectively . Usually, the first quarter of the year is a low season. </li>
<li>For WinSemi capacity management, the company will expand once they find the utilization being reaching to 85%, or above. </li>
<li>For the inventory issues that some people might be arguing with, WinSemi did not see any sign to worry about so far. </li>
</ul>


In our estimate, WinSemi’s 4Q21 revenue/GM is NT$70bn/38.9% and 1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$68bn/38% respectively . Usually, the first quarter of the year is a low season. 
For WinSemi capacity management, the company will expand once they find the utilization being reaching to 85%, or above. 
For the inventory issues that some people might be arguing with, WinSemi did not see any sign to worry about so far. 


WinSemi (3105.TT): Usually, the First Quarter of the Year Is a Low Season.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biel-crystal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33919:1" rel="noopener">Biel Crystal (0924581D HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Biel Crystal (BC) is the largest smart device enclosure and module solution provider in terms of shipment value in 2020 with a market share of 17.6%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S). BC’s products are used in end products such as smartphones, tablets, smart watches, AR, and VR glasses as well as automobiles.In this note, we will look at the industry landscape and compare BC to other Apple suppliers.We covered the IPO previously in:<ul><li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/biel-crystal-pre-ipo-cash-flow-generative-business-but-underlying-trend-is-worrying" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56198" rel="noopener">Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO - Cash Flow Generative Business but Underlying Trend Is Worrying</a> </li></ul>

Biel Crystal (0924581D HK) is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Biel Crystal (BC) is the largest smart device enclosure and module solution provider in terms of shipment value in 2020 with a market share of 17.6%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S). BC’s products are used in end products such as smartphones, tablets, smart watches, AR, and VR glasses as well as automobiles.In this note, we will look at the industry landscape and compare BC to other Apple suppliers.We covered the IPO previously in:Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO - Cash Flow Generative Business but Underlying Trend Is Worrying 

Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO - Industry Landscape & Peer Comparison -  Auto Is the Wildcard

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<blockquote> ‘The ‘Peak Smartphone’ theme justified an underweight stance back in Q4 across the most heavily exposed Asian supply chain stocks, with DDR4 DRAM prices down about 20% from its January peak and NAND flash down a third. Many bulls put premature faith in AI and AVs as incremental demand drivers, certainly valid medium term, but not on a scale to offset smartphone weakness this year while for high-end chip makers the end of the crypto mining frenzy is starting to impact. TSMC said this week that sales will rise by only a ‘high single-digit’ percentage in USD terms, down from a previous (reduced) projection of 10%.’</blockquote><div class="content-remarks">Weekly Insight, July 20th 2018</div>

 ‘The ‘Peak Smartphone’ theme justified an underweight stance back in Q4 across the most heavily exposed Asian supply chain stocks, with DDR4 DRAM prices down about 20% from its January peak and NAND flash down a third. Many bulls put premature faith in AI and AVs as incremental demand drivers, certainly valid medium term, but not on a scale to offset smartphone weakness this year while for high-end chip makers the end of the crypto mining frenzy is starting to impact. TSMC said this week that sales will rise by only a ‘high single-digit’ percentage in USD terms, down from a previous (reduced) projection of 10%.’Weekly Insight, July 20th 2018

Bearish Tech Stance Still Performing, as 5G Rollout Looms

United States

Lumentum Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, supplies optical and photonic products. Lumentum Holdings serves data communications and telecommunications, networking, and life-sciences markets worldwide.

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Lumentum Holdings (LITE US)

WinSemi (3105.TT): Usually, the First Quarter of the Year Is a Low Season.

In our estimate, WinSemi’s 4Q21 revenue/GM is NT$70bn/38.9% and 1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$65bn/36% respectively . Usually, the first quarter of the...

Patrick Liao

Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO - Industry Landscape & Peer Comparison - Auto Is the Wildcard

Peer comparison against other Apple suppliers show that BC doesn’t stand out but neither does it underperform in any aspects.

Sumeet Singh

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

S&P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US...

Vermilion Research

Bearish Tech Stance Still Performing, as 5G Rollout Looms

‘The ‘Peak Smartphone’ theme justified an underweight stance back in Q4 across the most heavily exposed Asian supply chain stocks, with DDR4 DRAM...

Sean Maher

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