Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>It is far from common for a stock to be up 4% after missing the revenue guide for the quarter and slashing the full-year revenue guide for the year.</li><li>That’s exactly what happened with Lululemon today which should tell you the kind of sentiment going into the earnings!</li><li>The crux of the bear thesis on Lulu usually circles around their US business. </li></ul>

It is far from common for a stock to be up 4% after missing the revenue guide for the quarter and slashing the full-year revenue guide for the year.That’s exactly what happened with Lululemon today which should tell you the kind of sentiment going into the earnings!The crux of the bear thesis on Lulu usually circles around their US business. 

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

<ul><li>Strong candidate for shorting in the short-run, potential to miss revenue consensus by 4-5ppt in Q1 2024</li><li>Recommendation to short LULU US when share price is above USD410, price target of USD300 before next earnings date in May 2024</li><li>Lululemon is a leading brand in women's indoor training and yoga, overvalued and likely to see a decline in share price</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

Strong candidate for shorting in the short-run, potential to miss revenue consensus by 4-5ppt in Q1 2024Recommendation to short LULU US when share price is above USD410, price target of USD300 before next earnings date in May 2024Lululemon is a leading brand in women's indoor training and yoga, overvalued and likely to see a decline in share priceThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

<ul><li>Lululemon was facing some really thorny questions from Mr. Market ever since 4Q’23 earnings. Today’s earnings should help calm some nerves.</li><li>Here are my highlights from tonight’s call. Sales Growth by Region At first glance, one may find confirmation to plenty of concerns for LULU. US sales, which was ~61% of overall sales this quarter, grew by only 2%.</li><li>Growth momentum in international markets, especially in China helped mask the weakness in the US.</li></ul>

Lululemon was facing some really thorny questions from Mr. Market ever since 4Q’23 earnings. Today’s earnings should help calm some nerves.Here are my highlights from tonight’s call. Sales Growth by Region At first glance, one may find confirmation to plenty of concerns for LULU. US sales, which was ~61% of overall sales this quarter, grew by only 2%.Growth momentum in international markets, especially in China helped mask the weakness in the US.

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

<ul><li>On March 21st, Lululemon reported FY23 results. All things considered, the results were good. Guidance, however, caused some upset. Lululemon shares are down ~29% this year; after being down just 6% before the report, and is currently the 8th worst-performing stock in the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of 24.4% over the last 5 years.</li><li>This year’s revenue guidance is closer to, but still behind, the 5 years before that; where Lululemon averaged 15.7% annual revenue growth.</li></ul>

On March 21st, Lululemon reported FY23 results. All things considered, the results were good. Guidance, however, caused some upset. Lululemon shares are down ~29% this year; after being down just 6% before the report, and is currently the 8th worst-performing stock in the S&amp;P 500.Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of 24.4% over the last 5 years.This year’s revenue guidance is closer to, but still behind, the 5 years before that; where Lululemon averaged 15.7% annual revenue growth.

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Regular readers of this blog may know that I love tinkering with setups.</li><li>Recent profitable ideas of late have come from identifying mispriced situations primed for profit e.g. TDS-PV and FF .</li><li>Whilst a lot of focus in investing is on deep diving the fundamentals, the first easy pennies are often acquired via identification of a profitable set-up and thus, being able to identify profitable patterns is an important skill to hone.</li></ul>

Regular readers of this blog may know that I love tinkering with setups.Recent profitable ideas of late have come from identifying mispriced situations primed for profit e.g. TDS-PV and FF .Whilst a lot of focus in investing is on deep diving the fundamentals, the first easy pennies are often acquired via identification of a profitable set-up and thus, being able to identify profitable patterns is an important skill to hone.

United States

lululemon athletica Inc. designs and retails athletic clothing.  The Company produces fitness pants, shorts, tops and jackets for yoga, dance, running, and general fitness. lululemon serves customers throughout the world.

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Lululemon Athletica (LULU US)

Lululemon 2Q'24 Update

It is far from common for a stock to be up 4% after missing the revenue guide for the quarter and slashing the full-year revenue guide for the...

MBI Deep Dives

Lululemon (LULU) - Thursday, Apr 4, 2024

Recommendation to short LULU US when share price is above USD410, price target of USD300 before next earnings date in May 2024

Value Investors Club

Lululemon 1Q'24 Update

Lululemon was facing some really thorny questions from Mr. Market ever since 4Q’23 earnings. Today’s earnings should help calm some nerves.

MBI Deep Dives

Why Lululemon Isn’t Under Armour

Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of...

Investment Talk

A trading framework: Calling the recoil

Regular readers of this blog may know that I love tinkering with setups. Recent profitable ideas of late have come from identifying mispriced...

Acid Investments

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