Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be a couple of intra-review changes in the next 2-3 months but the intra-review replacement names could depend on the timing of these changes.</li>
<li>Separately, I see one regular ADD and DELETE for F250 in December 2023 but many names are close to the border and index change expectations could change if prices fluctuate.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be a couple of intra-review changes in the next 2-3 months but the intra-review replacement names could depend on the timing of these changes.
Separately, I see one regular ADD and DELETE for F250 in December 2023 but many names are close to the border and index change expectations could change if prices fluctuate.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I expect four changes for F100 and seven changes for F250 based on the latest available data.</li>
<li>However, with five more trading days left for the base date and with many names lurking close to the border, the rankings can still change.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.
I expect four changes for F100 and seven changes for F250 based on the latest available data.
However, with five more trading days left for the base date and with many names lurking close to the border, the rankings can still change.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Sep 23: Several Changes Including Potential Surprises

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The deal looked dead in the water during a week until, on 27 July, Global Auto Holdings raised its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lookers-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22031:1" rel="noopener">Lookers PLC (LOOK LN)</a> by 8%, to 130p/share (46.6% premium).</li>
<li>The increased offer will now be carried out via takeover, and represents an implied EV of £968 million, 6.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA and 9x Fwd P/E (on latest Consensus figures).</li>
<li>Considering the number of failed deals in the sector, I believe the offer looks very decent and the deal should now close. Spread is 5.2%/23.7% (gross /annualised). Long. </li>
</ul>


The deal looked dead in the water during a week until, on 27 July, Global Auto Holdings raised its offer for Lookers PLC (LOOK LN) by 8%, to 130p/share (46.6% premium).
The increased offer will now be carried out via takeover, and represents an implied EV of £968 million, 6.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA and 9x Fwd P/E (on latest Consensus figures).
Considering the number of failed deals in the sector, I believe the offer looks very decent and the deal should now close. Spread is 5.2%/23.7% (gross /annualised). Long. 


Alpha Auto Group/​​Lookers: Sharp Turn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric (9009 JP)</a>'s valuation has deviated from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s since the proposed expansion of Tokyo Disney Sea, Fantasy Springs. That bifurcation should now reverse. </li>
<li>Don't expect a serious fight in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>'s hostile for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a>.  Fanuc could counter. It is possible others could step up but we wouldn't know. </li>
<li>On the back of the news to spin off and list some logistics ops, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> is probably a buy on weakness vs Stub Ops Peers. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric (9009 JP)'s valuation has deviated from Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s since the proposed expansion of Tokyo Disney Sea, Fantasy Springs. That bifurcation should now reverse. 
Don't expect a serious fight in Nidec (6594 JP)'s hostile for Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP).  Fanuc could counter. It is possible others could step up but we wouldn't know. 
On the back of the news to spin off and list some logistics ops, Shenzhen International (152 HK) is probably a buy on weakness vs Stub Ops Peers. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/​Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

<ul>
<li>Lookers disclosed that Cinch (largest shareholder with 19.52% stake) plans to vote against the scheme. The shares have dropped to halfway between the pre-offer price and Alpha Auto's offer.</li>
<li>The shares are pricing a 45% probability of deal completion. This sector has a track record of failed deals, so it is understandable that investors are spooked.</li>
<li>Top Lookers shareholders are keen on selling and an offer from Lithia could well happen. At around 103p I'd be long, as I consider the risk reward is balanced. </li>
</ul>


Lookers disclosed that Cinch (largest shareholder with 19.52% stake) plans to vote against the scheme. The shares have dropped to halfway between the pre-offer price and Alpha Auto's offer.
The shares are pricing a 45% probability of deal completion. This sector has a track record of failed deals, so it is understandable that investors are spooked.
Top Lookers shareholders are keen on selling and an offer from Lithia could well happen. At around 103p I'd be long, as I consider the risk reward is balanced. 


Alpha Auto Group/​Lookers: From Done Deal to Uncertain Situation

United Kingdom

Lookers plc is a motor vehicle distributor. The Company's main activities are the sale, hire and maintenance of autos, light trucks, agricultural machinery, motorcycles and caravans, including the sale of fuel, parts and accessories. Lookers also delivers vehicles, builds coaches and operates caravan parks. The Company operates in the United Kingdom.

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Lookers PLC (LOOK LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes

Tullow Oil, Kier Group, and AO world are currently the top 3 F250 potential ADDs. Alfa Financial, ASOS, and XP power are next in line. There could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Sep 23: Several Changes Including Potential Surprises

Newly listed Cab Payments Holdings (CABP LN) and newly eligible Breedon Aggregates (BREE LN) and Ceres Power Holdings (CWR LN) could be added to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Alpha Auto Group/Lookers: Sharp Turn

After the deal looked dead in the water, the board of Bidco and the board of Lookers announced that they had agreed on an increased recommended...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Alpha Auto Group/Lookers: From Done Deal to Uncertain Situation

A puzzling situation: on the one hand, Cinch (19.5%) believes the offer undervalues Lookers, while another large shareholder, J O Hambro has...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes

Tullow Oil, Kier Group, and AO world are currently the top 3 F250 potential ADDs. Alfa Financial, ASOS, and XP power are next in line. There could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Sep 23: Several Changes Including Potential Surprises

Newly listed Cab Payments Holdings (CABP LN) and newly eligible Breedon Aggregates (BREE LN) and Ceres Power Holdings (CWR LN) could be added to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Alpha Auto Group/​​Lookers: Sharp Turn

After the deal looked dead in the water, the board of Bidco and the board of Lookers announced that they had agreed on an increased recommended...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/​Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Alpha Auto Group/​Lookers: From Done Deal to Uncertain Situation

A puzzling situation: on the one hand, Cinch (19.5%) believes the offer undervalues Lookers, while another large shareholder, J O Hambro has...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: Dechra, Network International, and Other Potential Changes

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Sep 23: Several Changes Including Potential Surprises

Alpha Auto Group/Lookers: Sharp Turn

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

Alpha Auto Group/Lookers: From Done Deal to Uncertain Situation