Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shared an estimate of the scale of new homes sold and still due for delivery in 2024</li>
<li>The figure is 3.96 million, which at around 100sqm per unit average would imply around 400 million sqm GFA of property</li>
<li>This is a more realistic figure than the much bigger numbers derived from macro data on sales, completions, and under-construction</li>
</ul>


On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shared an estimate of the scale of new homes sold and still due for delivery in 2024
The figure is 3.96 million, which at around 100sqm per unit average would imply around 400 million sqm GFA of property
This is a more realistic figure than the much bigger numbers derived from macro data on sales, completions, and under-construction


China Housing: The Answer Is 3.96 (Not 42)-New Estimate Of Sold-Still-To-Be-Delivered Units in 2024

<ul>
<li>Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected</li>
<li>In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline</li>
<li>The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS</li>
</ul>


Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected
In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline
The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS


China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area</li>
<li>From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm</li>
<li>The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized</li>
</ul>


It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area
From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm
The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized


China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index Committee its slow move (lack of movement) towards 100 names and sector rebalancing to tech and healthcare. This is really disappointing.</li>
<li>This time? We get nothing. No name changes. Some capping flows. 6 FAF changes. </li>
<li>Minimal flows on the HSI rebalance to be effective on 9 September. </li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index Committee its slow move (lack of movement) towards 100 names and sector rebalancing to tech and healthcare. This is really disappointing.
This time? We get nothing. No name changes. Some capping flows. 6 FAF changes. 
Minimal flows on the HSI rebalance to be effective on 9 September. 


Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal - No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow - Total 0️⃣🍔

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI is famous but has less AUM tracking it passively than you'd think. Nevertheless it is well-known and well-watched.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> were ADDs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> are DELETEs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> was NOT included. This was a surprise. We may see some disappointment this week from pre-positioning getting sold.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI is famous but has less AUM tracking it passively than you'd think. Nevertheless it is well-known and well-watched.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) and New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) were ADDs. JD Logistics (2618 HK) and SenseTime Group (20 HK) are DELETEs. 

PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) was NOT included. This was a surprise. We may see some disappointment this week from pre-positioning getting sold.


HSCEI Sep24 Rebal - Two ADDs, Two DELETEs, Two Surprises, Middling Flows

China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

China Housing: The Answer Is 3.96 (Not 42)-New Estimate Of Sold-Still-To-Be-Delivered Units in 2024

A new estimate for China's 'sold-not-yet-delivered' housing units in 2024 was shared by MoHURD and it looks much better than numbers derived from...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MoHURD) shared their estimate of the scale of the issue with the 'sold-not...

Robert Ciemniak

Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal - No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow - Total 0️⃣🍔

The HSI committee promised changes to rebalance towards better sector representation and a move to 100 names. That was a couple years ago. Progress...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Sep24 Rebal - Two ADDs, Two DELETEs, Two Surprises, Middling Flows

HSCEI sees two ADDs and two DELETEs, as expected, but one of the ADDs was unexpected, and the main expected ADD was n-o-t added. This will surprise...

Travis Lundy

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