Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
A50 Challenges:Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50). This new product competes with 20% of Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX] PBT; </li>
<li>
Completely Distracted: On top of weaker equity volumes/fees and the HK A50 launch, SGX has made numerous moves which are more of a distraction than they're worth; and </li>
<li>
Time For Massive Strategic Move: SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term.</li>
</ul>



A50 Challenges:Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50). This new product competes with 20% of Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX] PBT; 

Completely Distracted: On top of weaker equity volumes/fees and the HK A50 launch, SGX has made numerous moves which are more of a distraction than they're worth; and 

Time For Massive Strategic Move: SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term.


*Strong Revenue, Controlled Costs: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] reported a strong set of 3Q21 earnings at HKD 3.3 bn, improving HKD 481 mn (17.4%) linked quarter. Results were highlighted by HKEx’ marginally positive operating jaws, as recurring revenue improved HKD 550 mn (12.1%) while overall operating expenses declined nominally (under 0.1%) to HKD 1.5 mn over the period; and*A50, A New Avenue Of Growth: On October 18, 2021, HKEx successfully launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50), which is predicated on the new MSCI A50 Index. HKEx has a very broad range of liquid Hong Kong-China linked products, with the new A50 contract being linked to the northbound Stock Connect – on top of a better fee offering.

*Strong Revenue, Controlled Costs: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] reported a strong set of 3Q21 earnings at HKD 3.3 bn, improving HKD 481 mn (17.4%) linked quarter. Results were highlighted by HKEx’ marginally positive operating jaws, as recurring revenue improved HKD 550 mn (12.1%) while overall operating expenses declined nominally (under 0.1%) to HKD 1.5 mn over the period; and*A50, A New Avenue Of Growth: On October 18, 2021, HKEx successfully launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50), which is predicated on the new MSCI A50 Index. HKEx has a very broad range of liquid Hong Kong-China linked products, with the new A50 contract being linked to the northbound Stock Connect – on top of a better fee offering. 

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Solid Result Even Prior To A50

*A50 Challenges From HKEx: On October 18, 2021, the Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] successfully launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50), which is predicated on the new MSCI A50 Index. Unfortunately, this new product will be in direct competition with Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX]  FTSE A50 contract, which represents approximately 10% of company revenue or close to 20% of PBT.  HKEx has a very broad range of liquid Hong Kong-China linked products, with the new A50 contract being linked to the northbound Stock Connect – on top of a better fee offering; and*Time For Massive Strategic Move: As SGX needs to contend with a greater than expected impact from the earlier-than-expected launch of HKEX's MSCI China A50 index futures – on top of weaker equity volumes and fees, it continues to do numerous tiny bolt-on deals which appear to be more of a distraction than their worth. SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term.

*A50 Challenges From HKEx: On October 18, 2021, the Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] successfully launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50), which is predicated on the new MSCI A50 Index. Unfortunately, this new product will be in direct competition with Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX]  FTSE A50 contract, which represents approximately 10% of company revenue or close to 20% of PBT.  HKEx has a very broad range of liquid Hong Kong-China linked products, with the new A50 contract being linked to the northbound Stock Connect – on top of a better fee offering; and*Time For Massive Strategic Move: As SGX needs to contend with a greater than expected impact from the earlier-than-expected launch of HKEX's MSCI China A50 index futures – on top of weaker equity volumes and fees, it continues to do numerous tiny bolt-on deals which appear to be more of a distraction than their worth. SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term. 

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Hollowing Out Of SGX Starts

*A50 Challenges From HKEx: On October 18, 2021, the Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] is set to launch a derivative product (China A50 contract), which is predicated on the new MSCI A50 Index. Unfortunately, this new product will be in direct competition with Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX]  FTSE A50 contract, which represents approximately 10% of company revenue or close to 20% of PBT - not to mention 53% of its equity derivatives volume. HKEx has a very broad range of liquid Hong Kong-China linked products, with the new A50 contract being linked to the northbound Stock Connect – on top of a better fee offering; and*Time For Massive Strategic Move: As SGX needs to contend with a greater than expected impact from the earlier-than-expected launch of HKEX's MSCI China A50 index futures – on top of weaker equity volumes and fees, it continues to do numerous tiny bolt-on deals which appear to be more of a distraction than their worth. SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term.

*A50 Challenges From HKEx: On October 18, 2021, the Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] is set to launch a derivative product (China A50 contract), which is predicated on the new MSCI A50 Index. Unfortunately, this new product will be in direct competition with Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX]  FTSE A50 contract, which represents approximately 10% of company revenue or close to 20% of PBT - not to mention 53% of its equity derivatives volume. HKEx has a very broad range of liquid Hong Kong-China linked products, with the new A50 contract being linked to the northbound Stock Connect – on top of a better fee offering; and*Time For Massive Strategic Move: As SGX needs to contend with a greater than expected impact from the earlier-than-expected launch of HKEX's MSCI China A50 index futures – on top of weaker equity volumes and fees, it continues to do numerous tiny bolt-on deals which appear to be more of a distraction than their worth. SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term.

Singapore Exchange – 50 Hits To Bottom-Line

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global exchanges are adapting to a more price pressured environment in trading fees, including the growth of off-exchange trading</li>
<li>The most forward looking exchanges are actively diversifying their revenue base away from trading and transaction fees, and they are focusing on post-trade services, as well as monetising their access to “big data” and data flows</li>
<li>Select exchanges have accelerated their revenue diversification strategies through M&amp;A; two high profile examples are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intercontinental-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10221:1" rel="noopener">Intercontinental Exchange (ICE US)</a> acquiring Ellie Mae and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSE LN)</a> acquiring Refinitiv which, in part, reflects the attraction of the “big data” opportunity</li>
<li>The recent merger rumours within the exchanges sector between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cboe-global-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20189:1" rel="noopener">Cboe Global Markets (CBOE US)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cme-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12353:1" rel="noopener">Cme Group Inc (CME US)</a> – even though this merger did not materialise – reflect the potential for cost savings and synergies from exchange mergers</li>
<li>In emerging markets, the shift away from trading revenues is also apparent, although the pace of change seems more measured due to regulatory constraints</li>
<li>Among developed market exchanges, we believe that ICE is the “poster child” on revenue transformation, and is not overly expensive on valuations, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-boerse-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21604:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Boerse Ag (DB1 GR)</a> being the value pick and we also find CBOE to be attractive; we believe that LSEG is still a “show me” story on Refinitiv integration, even if valuations are undemanding</li>
<li>In emerging markets, we believe that out-of-favour <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b3-sa-brasil-bolsa-balcao" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24580:1" rel="noopener">B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ)</a> shares have potential to reverse the trend and re-rate on attractive valuations, with smaller cap <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bolsa-mexicana-de-valores-sab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24766:1" rel="noopener">Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab (BOLSAA MM)</a> attractive on both its broad revenue mix and valuations; we are bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> shares, with the market overly positive on the exchange’s prospects, in our view</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> is one to watch; management has more to do to diversify the revenue base, yet its valuations are undemanding and competition concerns may be overdone</li>
<li>We include the listed crypto exchange <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a> in this exchanges report for the first time; with its business model very geared towards trading and transaction fees, we are cautious on Coinbase given the very high volatility in both volumes and prices inherent in the world of crypto trading, as well as the regulatory hurdles</li>
<li>Risks to our positive views on B3, BolsaMex, ICE, CBOE and Deutsche Boerse include worse than expected post-trade and data and IT revenue generation as well as a more hostile regulatory climate; risks to our bearish views on HKEX and Coinbase are better than expected revenue and EBITDA growth</li>
</ul>


Global exchanges are adapting to a more price pressured environment in trading fees, including the growth of off-exchange trading
The most forward looking exchanges are actively diversifying their revenue base away from trading and transaction fees, and they are focusing on post-trade services, as well as monetising their access to “big data” and data flows
Select exchanges have accelerated their revenue diversification strategies through M&amp;A; two high profile examples are Intercontinental Exchange (ICE US) acquiring Ellie Mae and London Stock Exchange (LSE LN) acquiring Refinitiv which, in part, reflects the attraction of the “big data” opportunity
The recent merger rumours within the exchanges sector between Cboe Global Markets (CBOE US) &amp; Cme Group Inc (CME US) – even though this merger did not materialise – reflect the potential for cost savings and synergies from exchange mergers
In emerging markets, the shift away from trading revenues is also apparent, although the pace of change seems more measured due to regulatory constraints
Among developed market exchanges, we believe that ICE is the “poster child” on revenue transformation, and is not overly expensive on valuations, with Deutsche Boerse Ag (DB1 GR) being the value pick and we also find CBOE to be attractive; we believe that LSEG is still a “show me” story on Refinitiv integration, even if valuations are undemanding
In emerging markets, we believe that out-of-favour B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ) shares have potential to reverse the trend and re-rate on attractive valuations, with smaller cap Bolsa Mexicana De Valores Sab (BOLSAA MM) attractive on both its broad revenue mix and valuations; we are bearish on HKEX (388 HK) shares, with the market overly positive on the exchange’s prospects, in our view

SGX (SGX SP) is one to watch; management has more to do to diversify the revenue base, yet its valuations are undemanding and competition concerns may be overdone
We include the listed crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN US) in this exchanges report for the first time; with its business model very geared towards trading and transaction fees, we are cautious on Coinbase given the very high volatility in both volumes and prices inherent in the world of crypto trading, as well as the regulatory hurdles
Risks to our positive views on B3, BolsaMex, ICE, CBOE and Deutsche Boerse include worse than expected post-trade and data and IT revenue generation as well as a more hostile regulatory climate; risks to our bearish views on HKEX and Coinbase are better than expected revenue and EBITDA growth


Exchanges – More than Just Trading Places

United Kingdom

London Stock Exchange Group plc is the United Kingdom's primary stock exchange. The LSE provides markets that facilitate the raising of capital and the trading of corporate securities, access to a trading environment, as well as real-time pricing and reference information services worldwide.  Market coverage includes equities, derivatives and fixed-interest securities.

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London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN)

Singapore Exchange - Ringing Hollow

SGX: A50 Challenges: HKEx launched the MSCI China A50 Connect, which directly competes with 20% of SGX' PBT. A recent competitor event revealed...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Solid Result Even Prior To A50

HKEX: HKEx reported a strong QOQ 3Q21 earnings growth of 17.4%, and highlighted by marginally positive operating jaws, as recurring revenue...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Hollowing Out Of SGX Starts

HKEX: On October 18, 2021, HKEx launched MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50), which is predicated on the new MSCI A50 Index. Unfortunately, this new...

Thomas J. Monaco

Singapore Exchange – 50 Hits To Bottom-Line

SGX: On October 18th HKEx is set to launch its own China A50 contract, which will be in direct competition with SGX FTSE A50 contract. SGX's A50...

Thomas J. Monaco

Exchanges – More than Just Trading Places

We assess exchanges based on revenue mix ex-trading; the poster child is ICE, other attractive stocks are Deutsche Borse, CBOE, B3 & BolsaMex, with...

Victor Galliano

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52-week Range

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