Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We rate Japan Exchange as our 2024 high conviction buy in exchanges, for its attractive valuations, as well as its potential for increased market activity and big data revenue growth</li>
<li>We believe that Japan Exchange is the exception to the rule that DM exchanges need to diversify their revenue bases, as it is under less de-regulatory pressure</li>
<li>We also stick with Hong Kong Exchange as the deep value pick, as well as Deutsche Borse; we remain negative on Coinbase</li>
</ul>


We rate Japan Exchange as our 2024 high conviction buy in exchanges, for its attractive valuations, as well as its potential for increased market activity and big data revenue growth
We believe that Japan Exchange is the exception to the rule that DM exchanges need to diversify their revenue bases, as it is under less de-regulatory pressure
We also stick with Hong Kong Exchange as the deep value pick, as well as Deutsche Borse; we remain negative on Coinbase


Global Exchanges – Japan Exchange Is Our 2024 High Conviction Call

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.</li>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels</li>
</ul>


Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.
The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.
Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels


Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>Despite the rough market for ESG-related indexed funds recently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17865:1" rel="noopener">MSCI (MSCI US)</a> continues to increase its market share and solidify its already dominant position as the top indexer.</li>
<li>MSCI ESG-related indexes currently have a 67% (and still growing) market share of the overall ESG indexing ecosystem with nearly US$250 billion in index-linked ETF assets globally.</li>
<li>MSCI's dominant market position is even stronger in important ESG niches/verticals, and two in particular: 1) climate change-focused indexes, and 2) Asia-Pacific ESG markets.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rough market for ESG-related indexed funds recently, MSCI (MSCI US) continues to increase its market share and solidify its already dominant position as the top indexer.
MSCI ESG-related indexes currently have a 67% (and still growing) market share of the overall ESG indexing ecosystem with nearly US$250 billion in index-linked ETF assets globally.
MSCI's dominant market position is even stronger in important ESG niches/verticals, and two in particular: 1) climate change-focused indexes, and 2) Asia-Pacific ESG markets.


MSCI ESG Indexes Gaining in Market Share Despite ESG's Recent "Bear Market"

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Exchanges, especially in developed markets, continue to seek revenue streams outside of the traditional trading and transaction-based fees which has led to a mini-boom in exchange-driven M&amp;A targeting diversification</li>
<li>We use data and IT revenues as a proxy for “stickier” potentially recurring revenues in four DM and three EM exchanges, concluding that DM exchanges are under more diversification pressure</li>
<li>We identify three buy opportunities in exchanges; we like Hong Kong Exchange, Deutsche Borse and we add Nasdaq, whilst we are negative on Coinbase which remains the exchange to avoid</li>
</ul>


Exchanges, especially in developed markets, continue to seek revenue streams outside of the traditional trading and transaction-based fees which has led to a mini-boom in exchange-driven M&amp;A targeting diversification
We use data and IT revenues as a proxy for “stickier” potentially recurring revenues in four DM and three EM exchanges, concluding that DM exchanges are under more diversification pressure
We identify three buy opportunities in exchanges; we like Hong Kong Exchange, Deutsche Borse and we add Nasdaq, whilst we are negative on Coinbase which remains the exchange to avoid


Global Exchanges – Pace of Revenue Diversification Differs Between DM and EM Exchanges

United Kingdom

London Stock Exchange Group plc is the United Kingdom's primary stock exchange. The LSE provides markets that facilitate the raising of capital and the trading of corporate securities, access to a trading environment, as well as real-time pricing and reference information services worldwide.  Market coverage includes equities, derivatives and fixed-interest securities.

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London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN)

Global Exchanges – Japan Exchange Is Our 2024 High Conviction Call

Japan Exchange is a high conviction buy due to attractive valuations, potential for higher market activity. We also like Hong Kong Exchange and...

Victor Galliano

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 in re-emerging as leadership, and Financials $EUFN are leading the charge within Europe/UK. Banks, insurance, and financial...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Global Exchanges – Pace of Revenue Diversification Differs Between DM and EM Exchanges

We select, as our buys, Nasdaq for its focused diversification strategy, Deutsche Boerse for its relative value versus peers and HKEX for its GARP...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Exchanges – Japan Exchange Is Our 2024 High Conviction Call

​Japan Exchange is a high conviction buy due to attractive valuations, potential for higher market activity. We also like Hong Kong Exchange and...

Victor Galliano

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 in re-emerging as leadership, and Financials $EUFN are leading the charge within Europe/UK. Banks, insurance, and financial...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ESG Indexes Gaining in Market Share Despite ESG's Recent "Bear Market"

It's been rough for ESG index funds and the ESG indexers that index them. Not for MSCI, though. MSCI continues to gain market share and solidify...

Kyle Rudden

Global Exchanges – Pace of Revenue Diversification Differs Between DM and EM Exchanges

We select, as our buys, Nasdaq for its focused diversification strategy, Deutsche Boerse for its relative value versus peers and HKEX for its GARP...

Victor Galliano

Japan Exchange is a high conviction buy due to attractive valuations, potential for higher market activity. We also like Hong Kong Exchange and...