External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Marico: Marico’s consolidated revenue fell by 3% YoY, given a one-off channel inventory adjustment leading to a 5% decline in domestic revenues as four-year volume CAGR was flat (+3% YoY)</li><li>However, healthy offtake along with market share gains indicate an uptick in volume growth in the coming quarter</li><li>The overall demand recovery trend has sustained led by urban markets while rural recovery has been slower than expected</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Marico: Marico’s consolidated revenue fell by 3% YoY, given a one-off channel inventory adjustment leading to a 5% decline in domestic revenues as four-year volume CAGR was flat (+3% YoY)However, healthy offtake along with market share gains indicate an uptick in volume growth in the coming quarterThe overall demand recovery trend has sustained led by urban markets while rural recovery has been slower than expectedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Marico, Macrotech Developers, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services

<ul><li>Housing demand continues to surprise positively: After a strong Q4FY24, we expect a sequentially flattish presale growth in Q1FY24 (on a high Q4FY23 base, driven by sustenance sales)</li><li>In the absence of major new launches, sustenance sales are likely to remain robust</li><li>We expect new project launches to come to market in H2FY24</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Housing demand continues to surprise positively: After a strong Q4FY24, we expect a sequentially flattish presale growth in Q1FY24 (on a high Q4FY23 base, driven by sustenance sales)In the absence of major new launches, sustenance sales are likely to remain robustWe expect new project launches to come to market in H2FY24Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

Macrotech Developers / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macrotech-developers-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27315:1" rel="noopener">Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN)</a> had several issues on the balance sheet and governance front earlier. While, the debt levels have significantly come down since the time, governance however needs improvement. </li>
<li>Flat sales and margin contraction, driven by some bizzarre expenses needs attention including some elongated debtors.</li>
<li>We suggest investors should remain cautious about future uncertainty, as impairment of loans and adverse outcome of contingent liabilities may have a dent on the balance sheet. </li>
</ul>



Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN) had several issues on the balance sheet and governance front earlier. While, the debt levels have significantly come down since the time, governance however needs improvement. 
Flat sales and margin contraction, driven by some bizzarre expenses needs attention including some elongated debtors.
We suggest investors should remain cautious about future uncertainty, as impairment of loans and adverse outcome of contingent liabilities may have a dent on the balance sheet. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.</li>
<li>There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> merger and index changes the following week.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.</li>
</ul>


The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.
There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the HDFC Limited/ HDFC Bank merger and index changes the following week.
There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

Tube Investments of India  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations and some stocks have seen large price moves over the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>Active managers would have started realigning their portfolios and that could continue for a couple of weeks. Unwind long positions into strength.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations and some stocks have seen large price moves over the last couple of weeks.
Active managers would have started realigning their portfolios and that could continue for a couple of weeks. Unwind long positions into strength.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Outperformance Continues

India

Macrotech Developers Limited operates as a real estate company. The Company owns and develops commercial and industrial properties. Macrotech Developers serves customers worldwide.

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Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Marico, Macrotech Developers, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services

Marico: Marico’s consolidated revenue fell by 3% YoY, given a one-off channel inventory adjustment leading to a 5% decline in domestic revenues as...

HDFC Securities

Real Estate: Presale momentum continues

After a strong Q4FY24, we expect a sequentially flattish presale growth in Q1FY24 (on a high Q4FY23 base, driven by sustenance sales)

HDFC Securities

Macrotech Developers- Yet to Show Grit

We suggest investors should remain cautious about future uncertainty, as impairment of loans and adverse outcome of contingent liabilities may have...

Nitin Mangal

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Outperformance Continues

There could be 34 stocks migrating between size segments at the next reclassification. Active fund managers would have started rebalancing their...

Brian Freitas

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