Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I expect May-18 next.</li><li>Rate changes may be absorbed in spreads, which would pressure the MPC to hike faster and further than my already hawkish forecast (every six months back to 2%).</li><li>With a positive output gap potentially building, rates need to return to neutral, but markets place excessive focus on growth over gaps and do not price this.</li></ul>

The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I expect May-18 next.Rate changes may be absorbed in spreads, which would pressure the MPC to hike faster and further than my already hawkish forecast (every six months back to 2%).With a positive output gap potentially building, rates need to return to neutral, but markets place excessive focus on growth over gaps and do not price this.

BoE: Transmitting Periodic Hawkish Surprises

<ul>
<li>Gloomy headlines about new car registrations falling 9.3% y-o-y overstate current weakness. Sales were stricken by tax changes but have been recovering since. Sales growth in Q3 is unusually high with an even larger swing to support GDP growth. </li>
<li>Scrappage schemes and attractive credit policies are also helping, albeit with some financial risks. Stress tests mostly miss the risks rising in this sector, though, with losses set to increase sharply beyond the 10% price fall under consideration.</li>
</ul>The…


Gloomy headlines about new car registrations falling 9.3% y-o-y overstate current weakness. Sales were stricken by tax changes but have been recovering since. Sales growth in Q3 is unusually high with an even larger swing to support GDP growth. 
Scrappage schemes and attractive credit policies are also helping, albeit with some financial risks. Stress tests mostly miss the risks rising in this sector, though, with losses set to increase sharply beyond the 10% price fall under consideration.
The…

FLASH: UK Car Sales Recovering; Stress Would Be Nonlinear

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Bank of England (BOE) is concerned about UK consumer loans. More succinctly, it is worried about limited provisions taken by UK banks for consumer loans. It is suggesting or guiding or requiring – so far this is unclear – for UK banks to set aside more capital for UK consumer loans. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21976" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA LN)</a> has considerable exposure in the UK and will likely be affected. HSBC Bank Plc, which is mostly UK, accounts for 44% of HSBC Group loans, as at 1H17. The BOE's concerns can not be a…

The Bank of England (BOE) is concerned about UK consumer loans. More succinctly, it is worried about limited provisions taken by UK banks for consumer loans. It is suggesting or guiding or requiring – so far this is unclear – for UK banks to set aside more capital for UK consumer loans. HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA LN) has considerable exposure in the UK and will likely be affected. HSBC Bank Plc, which is mostly UK, accounts for 44% of HSBC Group loans, as at 1H17. The BOE's concerns can not be a…

Bank of England Warns on UK Consumer Loans

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

The UK investment management industry is, from a variety of perspectives, an important industry. With the Brexit clock now ticking, is there huge uncertainty ahead or is the industry largely secure? Can investment managers get on with their business or should they put their plans on hold for the next 23 months until the future becomes clearer?There are “experts” pointing in both directions. This article examines sources of income for UK investment managers to establish the extent of any risk and will also consider the position of investment managers in the U.S.

The UK investment management industry is, from a variety of perspectives, an important industry. With the Brexit clock now ticking, is there huge uncertainty ahead or is the industry largely secure? Can investment managers get on with their business or should they put their plans on hold for the next 23 months until the future becomes clearer?There are “experts” pointing in both directions. This article examines sources of income for UK investment managers to establish the extent of any risk and will also consider the position of investment managers in the U.S.

UK Investment Managers: Any Reason to Be Frightened by Brexit? A Legal Update from Dechert

United Kingdom

Lloyds Banking Group plc, through subsidiaries and associated companies, offers a range of banking and financial services. The Company provides retail banking, mortgages, pensions, asset management, insurance services, corporate banking, and treasury services.

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Lloyds Banking (LLOY LN)

BoE: Transmitting Periodic Hawkish Surprises

The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK Car Sales Recovering; Stress Would Be Nonlinear

Gloomy headlines about new car registrations falling 9.3% y-o-y overstate current weakness. Sales were stricken by tax changes but have been...

Phil Rush

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as...

Vermilion Research

Bank of England Warns on UK Consumer Loans

The Bank of England (BOE) is concerned about UK consumer loans. More succinctly, it is worried about limited provisions taken by UK banks for...

Daniel Tabbush

UK Investment Managers: Any Reason to Be Frightened by Brexit? A Legal Update from Dechert

The UK investment management industry is, from a variety of perspectives, an important industry. With the Brexit clock now ticking, is there huge...

Dechert LLP

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