Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

As the market churns in a one step forward, one step back fashion, we remain in wait-and-see mode as to whether recent improvements in cyclical value areas of the market have staying power. Considering the lack of breakouts or breakdowns in key cyclical areas of the market, our neutral outlook remains intact. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing: Retailers, Auto Parts, Canadian Banks, and Building Products and Fixtures.

As the market churns in a one step forward, one step back fashion, we remain in wait-and-see mode as to whether recent improvements in cyclical value areas of the market have staying power. Considering the lack of breakouts or breakdowns in key cyclical areas of the market, our neutral outlook remains intact. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing: Retailers, Auto Parts, Canadian Banks, and Building Products and Fixtures.

U.S. Equity Strategy: One Step Forward, One Step Back

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

All Hail Caesar (Trump)! I still remember the time when Obama was elected President. Everyone was celebrating. Japan mentioned they had one city named Obama, and Indonesia was touting how he spent his childhood years there. Of course, Trump is anything but conventional, and neither was his inauguration. Jen here was watching the TV, and mentioned that there were protests in Mexico and Germany about his rise to power...hardly the way to welcome the world's most powerful man. At least, the people…

All Hail Caesar (Trump)! I still remember the time when Obama was elected President. Everyone was celebrating. Japan mentioned they had one city named Obama, and Indonesia was touting how he spent his childhood years there. Of course, Trump is anything but conventional, and neither was his inauguration. Jen here was watching the TV, and mentioned that there were protests in Mexico and Germany about his rise to power...hardly the way to welcome the world's most powerful man. At least, the people…

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

<ul>
<li>GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models.</li>
<li>The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for a 1-10% penalty.</li>
<li>The fine is small at 1.3% of profits and levied by the Shanghai government.</li>
<li>Shanghai Auto (SAIC) is the JV partner for GM in China.</li>
<li>This probe began in 2014 though investigations began in 2011 upon receiving auto dealer complaints.</li>
<li>Price fixing is a practice common by foreign automakers in China.</li>
<li>
Audi and Chrysler were fined for price fixing…</li>
</ul>


GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models.
The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for a 1-10% penalty.
The fine is small at 1.3% of profits and levied by the Shanghai government.
Shanghai Auto (SAIC) is the JV partner for GM in China.
This probe began in 2014 though investigations began in 2011 upon receiving auto dealer complaints.
Price fixing is a practice common by foreign automakers in China.

Audi and Chrysler were fined for price fixing…


Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

<ul>
<li>
Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.</li>
<li>
Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.</li>
<li>
China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.</li>
</ul>The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…



Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.

Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.

China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.
The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

United States

Pool Corporation is a wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment and related leisure products. The Company's inventory includes a diverse range of products, from construction materials, replacement parts and fencing to pool care products and spas.

Genuine Parts Company distributes automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products, and electrical/electronic materials.  The Company conducts business throughout most of the United States, in Canada, and in Mexico.

Weyco Group, Inc., and its subsidiaries, distribute men's footwear.  The Company offers both casual and dress shoes which are sold on a worldwide basis.

Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. operates as a sporting goods retailer that manages stores primarily in the eastern and central United States. The Company owns stores that offers a broad selection of brand name sporting goods equipment, apparel, and footwear.

Burlington Stores, Inc. owns and operates clothing retail stores. The Company offers, through its stores and internet sites, men's, women's, and children's apparel. Burlington Holding operates within the United States and Puerto Rico.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.  a specialty retailer that operates stores and direct-to-consumer operations. Through these channels, the Company sells: casual sportswear apparel, including knit and woven shirts, graphic t-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal care products; and accessories for men, women and kids.

Murphy USA Inc. produces and distributes petroleum products. The Company engages in refining, marketing, and transportation of oil and gas products. Murphy USA provides products and services worldwide.

Etsy, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company offers handmade and vintage items, art, and supplies, as well as regular items such as clothing, housewares, paper goods, candles, bags and purses, music, and wood working items. Etsy serves users throughout the United States.

Wayfair Inc. retails household goods online. The Company offers bedroom, living room, kitchen and dining, home entertainment, home office, game room and bar, patio, hallway and entryway, and bathroom furniture. Wayfair offers products and services in the United States.

Expedia Group, Inc. provides branded online travel services for leisure and small business travelers. The Company offers a wide range of travel shopping and reservation services, providing real-time access to schedule, pricing and availability information for airlines, hotels, and car rental companies.

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in automotive, consumer finance, utilities and infrastructure, heavy equipment and mining, property, agribusiness, cement, and consumer products businesses. Jardine Cycle & Carriage serves customers in South East Asia.

S.A. D'Ieteren N.V. imports to and distributes European- and Asian-manufactured cars in Belgium.  The Company offers vehicle glass repair and replacement services in Europe, North and South America, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand.

Canon Marketing Japan Inc. distributes all Canon products in the domestic market.  The Company sells copying machines, printers, digital cameras, facsimile, scanner, projectors, and calculators.

Inchcape PLC is a global automotive distributor and retailer. The Company acts as a vehicle and parts distributor in multiple markets. In these markets, Inchcape has exclusive responsibility for managing the value chain on behalf of a focused portfolio of premium and luxury brand partners. Over two thirds of the Group profit is derived from Asia Pacific and emerging markets.

Liaoning Cheng Da Co., Ltd. imports and exports a variety of textile products including knitting products, household textile products, and apparel.  The Company also operates pharmaceutical chain stores and provides processing services.

Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.,Ltd. offers supply chain services. The Company purchases and distributes metal materials, ores, automobiles, chemicals, rubbers, and energy products. Wuchan Zhongda Group also conducts finance, medical, thermal power, and public utility businesses.

Bapcor Limited retails automotive parts. The Company offers aftermarket parts, accessories, and services. Bapcor serves customers in Australia.

Sinomach Automobile Co., Ltd. operates in the car wholesale and retail business. The company changed business sector from machinery to automobile wholeslae after the acquisition of China Automobile Trading Co Ltd.

Zhejiang Orient Holdings Co., Ltd. imports and exports textile products.  The Company exports cotton and wool knitwear, household textile products, and accessories, as well as imports textile raw materials and equipment.  Zhejiang Orient also provides apparel processing services, acts as a cargo transportation agency, and operates in properties.

Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Company Ltd. retails and distributes books and offers services.  The Company operates a chain of retail bookstores, distributes textbooks and supplementary materials, and provides ancillary support and services to book publishers.

LKQ Corporation offers automotive products and services. The Company provides alternative collision replacement parts, recycled engines and transmissions, as well as remanufactured engines. LKQ offers customers in North America, Central America and Europe replacement systems, components and parts for the repair of automobiles and light, medium, and heavy-duty trucks.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lkq Corp (LKQ US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: One Step Forward, One Step Back

As the market churns in a one step forward, one step back fashion, we remain in wait-and-see mode as to whether recent improvements in cyclical...

Vermilion Research

Geopolitics, Trump, & Thailand

All Hail Caesar (Trump)! I still remember the time when Obama was elected President. Everyone was celebrating. Japan mentioned they had one city...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

GM Fined for Price Fixing in China

GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models. The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia. Mexico: Fitch downgrades...

David Riedel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)