HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.</li>
<li>Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.</li>
<li>Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.</li>
</ul>


With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.
Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.
Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Topsports International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.</li>
<li>We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the CSI 300 Index outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.
We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.
The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the HSCEI Index, CSI 300 Index and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Entering 2024, more provinces/regions have included assisted reproductive medical service projects into medical insurance reimbursement scope. It is expected that the government will accelerate the introduction of supporting measures ahead.</li>
<li>Livzon’s performance in 2023 was disappointing.For BGI, even if the BIOSECURE Act passes and BGI is sanctioned by the US, the overall impact on the company is limited and controllable.</li>
<li>Jinxin has gradually recovered from the negative impact of COVID-19.With the recovery of international flights and the increase in the number of patients, the Company would be back on track. </li>
</ul>


Entering 2024, more provinces/regions have included assisted reproductive medical service projects into medical insurance reimbursement scope. It is expected that the government will accelerate the introduction of supporting measures ahead.
Livzon’s performance in 2023 was disappointing.For BGI, even if the BIOSECURE Act passes and BGI is sanctioned by the US, the overall impact on the company is limited and controllable.
Jinxin has gradually recovered from the negative impact of COVID-19.With the recovery of international flights and the increase in the number of patients, the Company would be back on track. 


China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 4

Sino Biopharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.</li>
<li>GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.</li>
<li>In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.</li>
</ul>


The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.
GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.
In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Among core/key products, TY-302 and TY-2136b have to face fierce competition, with R&amp;D progress lagging behind competing products.TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC could be a breakthrough point for TYK.</li>
<li>There would be a long time for the first product to generate revenue, but TYK is cash shortage.So, the survival risk is high. Such companies are less attractive to investors.</li>
<li>Valuation of TYK after six rounds of financing was RMB3.08 billion. However, considering the weak sentiment and concerns on pipeline, valuation of TYK after IPO could fall below this level.</li>
</ul>


Among core/key products, TY-302 and TY-2136b have to face fierce competition, with R&amp;D progress lagging behind competing products.TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC could be a breakthrough point for TYK.
There would be a long time for the first product to generate revenue, but TYK is cash shortage.So, the survival risk is high. Such companies are less attractive to investors.
Valuation of TYK after six rounds of financing was RMB3.08 billion. However, considering the weak sentiment and concerns on pipeline, valuation of TYK after IPO could fall below this level.


Pre-IPO TYK Medicines - Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline

China

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. develops and manufactures pharmaceutical products, including chemical medicines, bio-chemical medicines, biological engineering medicines, chemical compound crude medicines, antibiotics, micro-ecological preparations, patent Chinese medicines, and diagnosis reagents etc.

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In (000513 CH)

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Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In (000513 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

COVID is coming again. So investors can focus on related stocks. US companies leaving Chinese partners due to BIOSECURE Act. Livzon is still worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

We currently estimate passive selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed in China and HK. The potential deletes have underperformed...

Brian Freitas

China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 4

Different provinces expand coverage for assisted reproductive services in medical insurance. Livzon missed expectation in 2023.US sanction on BGI...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

Payment policy relaxation will drive rapid sales growth of TCM injection.GLP-1 has defects-patients will lose not only fat but also muscle. Mr...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines - Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline

Except TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC, the rest pipeline has little highlight but with fierce competition.As a biotech with no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

COVID is coming again. So investors can focus on related stocks. US companies leaving Chinese partners due to BIOSECURE Act. Livzon is still worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

We currently estimate passive selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed in China and HK. The potential deletes have underperformed...

Brian Freitas

China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 4

​Different provinces expand coverage for assisted reproductive services in medical insurance. Livzon missed expectation in 2023.US sanction on BGI...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

Payment policy relaxation will drive rapid sales growth of TCM injection.GLP-1 has defects-patients will lose not only fat but also muscle. Mr...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines - Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline

Except TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC, the rest pipeline has little highlight but with fierce competition.As a biotech with no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Different provinces expand coverage for assisted reproductive services in medical insurance. Livzon missed expectation in 2023.US sanction on BGI...