External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Lithium Americas Argentina Cor / Equity Bottom-Up

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>US-based operations of Lithium Americas are separate from potential trade disputes.</li><li>Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp has an attractive valuation, strong cash flows, and a favorable mining jurisdiction in Argentina.</li><li>The author believes the stock has the potential to double within 12 months, with a price target of $12.</li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)US-based operations of Lithium Americas are separate from potential trade disputes.Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp has an attractive valuation, strong cash flows, and a favorable mining jurisdiction in Argentina.The author believes the stock has the potential to double within 12 months, with a price target of $12.This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Lithium Amers (Argentina) Cp (LAAC.) - Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> has disclosed a binding offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a> at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.</li>
<li>The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. </li>
</ul>



Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) has disclosed a binding offer from Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).
The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.
The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

<ul>
<li>In response to media reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. No terms were disclosed.</li>
<li>According to press reports, Rio aims to acquire Arcadium at a valuation range of US$4-6 billion (A$5.9-8.8 billion). Blackwattle thinks a fair price is closer to US$8 billion. </li>
<li>The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.  </li>
</ul>


In response to media reports, Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). No terms were disclosed.
According to press reports, Rio aims to acquire Arcadium at a valuation range of US$4-6 billion (A$5.9-8.8 billion). Blackwattle thinks a fair price is closer to US$8 billion. 
The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.  


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sayona-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1589:1" rel="noopener">Sayona Mining (SYA AU)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> at the close of trading on 20 September.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.7% and in a round-trip trade of US$35m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eramet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21452:1" rel="noopener">Eramet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tronox-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6778:1" rel="noopener">Tronox</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-americas-argentina-cor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40445:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Americas Argentina</a> while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sayona-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1589:1" rel="noopener">Sayona Mining</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials (MP US)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sayona Mining (SYA AU) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close of trading on 20 September.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.7% and in a round-trip trade of US$35m.
The largest inflows will be in Eramet, Tronox and Lithium Americas Argentina while the largest outflows will be from Lynas Corp, Sayona Mining and MP Materials (MP US).


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.</li><li>Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.</li><li>We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.</li></ul>

Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.

Canada

Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp. is a resource and materials company. The Company focuses on developing projects that support the vital lithium supply chain and the global transition to cleaner energy, and also manages a pipeline of lithium development and exploration projects. Lithium Americas (Argentina) operates in Argentina and Canada.

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Lithium Americas Argentina Cor (LAAC US)

Lithium Amers (Argentina) Cp (LAAC.) - Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023

Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp has an attractive valuation, strong cash flows, and a favorable mining jurisdiction in Argentina.

Value Investors Club

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

The offer is not a knockout bid but the shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality...

Arun George

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.

Arun George

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Sayona Mining will be deleted from the MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the close on 20 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.7%...

Brian Freitas

2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future...

Massif Capital Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lithium Amers (Argentina) Cp (LAAC.) - Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023

Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp has an attractive valuation, strong cash flows, and a favorable mining jurisdiction in Argentina.

Value Investors Club

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

The offer is not a knockout bid but the shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality...

Arun George

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.

Arun George

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Sayona Mining will be deleted from the MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index at the close on 20 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.7%...

Brian Freitas

2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future...

Massif Capital Research

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Sayona Mining will be deleted from the MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the close on 20 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.7%...