TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We wrote about Disney at the outset of COVID-19, thinking that its dramatic drawdown was overdone – essentially arguing that consumer behavior ultimately won’t be impacted.</p><p>We admittedly have some egg on our face. Clearly this time is different. We think we are at maximum Disney bearishness - multiple sellside downgrades, consensus hedge fund short? Seems like a good entry point for what will become a crowded long again once some visibility emerges.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We wrote about Disney at the outset of COVID-19, thinking that its dramatic drawdown was overdone – essentially arguing that consumer behavior ultimately won’t be impacted.We admittedly have some egg on our face. Clearly this time is different. We think we are at maximum Disney bearishness - multiple sellside downgrades, consensus hedge fund short? Seems like a good entry point for what will become a crowded long again once some visibility emerges.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Disney Revisited: Still a Long (Time From Now), When People Are (No Longer) Far Far Away.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p>In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator II: US Media/Telco Edition

United States

Lions Gate Entertainment Corporation develops and distributes film entertainment contents. The Company produces motion pictures, television programming, animation, and digital media. Lions Gate Entertainment serves customers worldwide.

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Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF/A US)

Disney Revisited: Still a Long (Time From Now), When People Are (No Longer) Far Far Away.

We wrote about Disney at the outset of COVID-19, thinking that its dramatic drawdown was overdone – essentially arguing that consumer behavior...

Aaron Gabin

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator II: US Media/Telco Edition

In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)