Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>Back on the 12 October,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02292481-2A1255763?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising PEP and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. The indicative cash price was A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close. Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.</p>
</div>
<div>On the 23 October, Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02297758-2A1258281?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the proposal from PEP/Carlyle "<em>materially undervalued the company</em>". </div>
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<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>PEP/Carlyle have <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02298663-2A1258716?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">now</a> tabled a A$5.40/share non-binding indicative Offer, in cash. The proposal includes an option of a cash offer for Link ex-Property Exchange Australia (PEXA) of 3.80/share, along with the ability to take an indirect interest in PEXA.  Shareholders with 14.62% of shares out have stated their intention to vote in favour of PEP/Carlyle's latest proposal, in the absence of a superior offer.</p>
<p>PEP/Carlyle said it requires six weeks of due diligence, and if DD access is not provided by the 28 October, they will walk.</p>
<p>For just a 3.8% bump, that is a tad aggressive. That adds risk to a firm deal unfolding.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 12 October,  Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) announced a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising PEP and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. The indicative cash price was A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close. Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.

On the 23 October, Link said the proposal from PEP/Carlyle "materially undervalued the company". 

The New News
PEP/Carlyle have now tabled a A$5.40/share non-binding indicative Offer, in cash. The proposal includes an option of a cash offer for Link ex-Property Exchange Australia (PEXA) of 3.80/share, along with the ability to take an indirect interest in PEXA.  Shareholders with 14.62% of shares out have stated their intention to vote in favour of PEP/Carlyle's latest proposal, in the absence of a superior offer.
PEP/Carlyle said it requires six weeks of due diligence, and if DD access is not provided by the 28 October, they will walk.
For just a 3.8% bump, that is a tad aggressive. That adds risk to a firm deal unfolding.


As always, more below the fold.


Link Admin: Hardball Tactics After Meagre Bump

<p>Back in <a href="https://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/pacific-equity-partners-to-purchase-asx-perpetual-registrars-19426" target="_blank" rel="noopener">August 2005</a>, Private Equity Partners acquired share registry outfit ASX Perpetual Registrars (APR) for ~A$132mn. PEP followed with the acquisition of Telstra's fund administrator Australian Administration Services, which was rebranded Link Administration, which subsequently acquired APR.</p>
<p>After further, substantial investments and tech upgrades, PEP IPO'ed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> in October 2015 at $6.37/share, the top end of the range. PEP cleared out its holding in September 2016 at A$8.38/share. </p>
<p>Link has morphed since PEP's exit, significantly growing its domestic and global operations, via the acquisition of UK-based Capital Asset Services in <a href="https://www.linkgroup.com/media/Link-Group-CAPITA-ASSET-SERVICES-Acquisition-web-release.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2017</a> (for A$1.493bn); the Property Exchange Australia (known as PEXA), Australia's first digital property settlement platform, acquired by a Link-led consortium (alongside CBA and Morgan Stanley) in 2018 for <a href="https://www.computerworld.com/article/3469078/cba-link-group-and-morgan-stanley-snap-up-pexa.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$1.6bn</a>, which increased Link's shareholding to 44.2% from 19.8%; and the acquisition of Pepper Group's European loan servicing, advisory, and asset management business for A$266mn in January this year.</p>
<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>Link has announced its has received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising PEP and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. The indicative cash price is A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close.</p>
<p>Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.</p>
<p>This is a non-binding proposal and there is no guarantee a firm offer will unfold. </p>
<p>But this is a business with which PEP is well acquainted, having orchestrated and developed Link's initial business 15 years ago.</p>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>

Back in August 2005, Private Equity Partners acquired share registry outfit ASX Perpetual Registrars (APR) for ~A$132mn. PEP followed with the acquisition of Telstra's fund administrator Australian Administration Services, which was rebranded Link Administration, which subsequently acquired APR.
After further, substantial investments and tech upgrades, PEP IPO'ed Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) in October 2015 at $6.37/share, the top end of the range. PEP cleared out its holding in September 2016 at A$8.38/share. 
Link has morphed since PEP's exit, significantly growing its domestic and global operations, via the acquisition of UK-based Capital Asset Services in 2017 (for A$1.493bn); the Property Exchange Australia (known as PEXA), Australia's first digital property settlement platform, acquired by a Link-led consortium (alongside CBA and Morgan Stanley) in 2018 for $1.6bn, which increased Link's shareholding to 44.2% from 19.8%; and the acquisition of Pepper Group's European loan servicing, advisory, and asset management business for A$266mn in January this year.
The New News
Link has announced its has received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising PEP and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. The indicative cash price is A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close.
Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.
This is a non-binding proposal and there is no guarantee a firm offer will unfold. 
But this is a business with which PEP is well acquainted, having orchestrated and developed Link's initial business 15 years ago.
As always, more below the fold.

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Our</strong> <strong>Q4-2019 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks produced an average price decline of 6.1% and on a market cap weighted basis a decline of 8.6%</strong>. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 4.1% over the same period. The stock rank quality of the Q4 2019 list increased mere1.5 points or 0.46% for the period. Refer: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/screening-the-silk-road-small-mid-cap-high-risk-names-to-avoid-q4-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34640" rel="noopener">Screening the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap High Risk Names to Avoid: Q4 2019</a> </li>
<li>
<strong>17 stocks appear in our Q1 2020 screen, compared to 16, 14, 19 and 26 in Q4, Q3, Q2 and Q1 2019 respectively</strong>. The average stock rank in our list has decreased 2.8 to 72.1 points since December 2019. The reduction reflects some of the decisive bearish moves in recent weeks within the Asian Universe. This has seen the market making a more defined separation of Quality, Value and relative Momentum, which we had felt was overdue in Q4 2019.</li>
<li>
<strong>Deteriorating credit metrics</strong> support our view that the level of risk appears is increasing within the small-mid cap universe. </li>
</ul>



Our Q4-2019 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks produced an average price decline of 6.1% and on a market cap weighted basis a decline of 8.6%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 4.1% over the same period. The stock rank quality of the Q4 2019 list increased mere1.5 points or 0.46% for the period. Refer: Screening the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap High Risk Names to Avoid: Q4 2019 

17 stocks appear in our Q1 2020 screen, compared to 16, 14, 19 and 26 in Q4, Q3, Q2 and Q1 2019 respectively. The average stock rank in our list has decreased 2.8 to 72.1 points since December 2019. The reduction reflects some of the decisive bearish moves in recent weeks within the Asian Universe. This has seen the market making a more defined separation of Quality, Value and relative Momentum, which we had felt was overdue in Q4 2019.

Deteriorating credit metrics support our view that the level of risk appears is increasing within the small-mid cap universe. 


Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2020 Small-Mid Cap High Risk Names to Avoid

Quantitative Analysis

<p>* Our Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/screening-the-silkroad-small-mid-cap-high-risk-names-to-avoid-q3-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31999" rel="noopener">Screening the Silkroad: Small-Mid Cap High-Risk Names to Avoid: Q3 2019 ) </a> produced a market cap average price return of 5%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted 8.5% over the same period. The stock rank quality of the Q3 2019 list declined 5.1 points or 6.6% for the period. <br>* 16-stocks appear in our Q4 2019 screen, compared to 14, 19 and 26 in Q3, Q2 and Q1 respectively. The average stock rank has decreased marginally to 74.9 points from the 76.9 points in August 2019. The fact that the screen presents with a high stock rank remains a concern. In our view, this reflects the increased level of risk in the market which is being seen in other metrics as well.<br>* Deteriorating credit metrics support our view that the level of risk appears is increasing within the small-mid cap universe. </p>

* Our Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks ( Screening the Silkroad: Small-Mid Cap High-Risk Names to Avoid: Q3 2019 )  produced a market cap average price return of 5%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted 8.5% over the same period. The stock rank quality of the Q3 2019 list declined 5.1 points or 6.6% for the period.  * 16-stocks appear in our Q4 2019 screen, compared to 14, 19 and 26 in Q3, Q2 and Q1 respectively. The average stock rank has decreased marginally to 74.9 points from the 76.9 points in August 2019. The fact that the screen presents with a high stock rank remains a concern. In our view, this reflects the increased level of risk in the market which is being seen in other metrics as well. * Deteriorating credit metrics support our view that the level of risk appears is increasing within the small-mid cap universe. 

Screening the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap High Risk Names to Avoid: Q4 2019

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Reduced List, but significant all the same</h2><ul>
<li>
<strong>Our</strong><strong>Q2-2019 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/screening-the-silkroad-small-mid-cap-high-risk-names-to-avoid-q2-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29753" rel="noopener">Screening the Silkroad: Small-Mid Cap High-Risk Names to Avoid: Q2 2019</a>) produced a market cap average price decrease of 9.7%</strong>. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 7.5% over the same period.</li>
<li>O<strong>ur screen looks for high valuation multiples</strong> presented by candidates with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet distress.</li>
<li>
<strong>The Risk to this screen:</strong> The Financial and Utility sectors are not covered in this screen. Moreover, <em>“risk is not a number, it is a concept or notion”</em>, as cited by James Mortiner during his time at Société Genéralé. Hence, some stocks may appear on this screen due to their business model being realigned to a more profitable approach. They may also be a member of more positive value or quality screens, as a result of this realignment.</li>
<li>
<strong>14-stocks appear in our Q3 2019 screen, down from 19 and 26 in Q2 and Q1 2019 respectively</strong>. Of the new list, 7 stocks are new to the list. On a geographical basis, Singapore remains absent from the screen for the fifth quarter running, whilst New Zealand has not presented any names for the second quarter running.</li>
<li>
<strong>Whilst our screen highlights a decreased pool of candidates, the level of risk remains relatively static within the small-mid cap universe,</strong> there have been several revealing data points in this quarters screen, which suggest investors need to pay attention to the Asian markets.</li>
</ul>

Reduced List, but significant all the same

OurQ2-2019 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks (Screening the Silkroad: Small-Mid Cap High-Risk Names to Avoid: Q2 2019) produced a market cap average price decrease of 9.7%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 7.5% over the same period.
Our screen looks for high valuation multiples presented by candidates with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet distress.

The Risk to this screen: The Financial and Utility sectors are not covered in this screen. Moreover, “risk is not a number, it is a concept or notion”, as cited by James Mortiner during his time at Société Genéralé. Hence, some stocks may appear on this screen due to their business model being realigned to a more profitable approach. They may also be a member of more positive value or quality screens, as a result of this realignment.

14-stocks appear in our Q3 2019 screen, down from 19 and 26 in Q2 and Q1 2019 respectively. Of the new list, 7 stocks are new to the list. On a geographical basis, Singapore remains absent from the screen for the fifth quarter running, whilst New Zealand has not presented any names for the second quarter running.

Whilst our screen highlights a decreased pool of candidates, the level of risk remains relatively static within the small-mid cap universe, there have been several revealing data points in this quarters screen, which suggest investors need to pay attention to the Asian markets.


Screening the Silkroad: Small-Mid Cap High-Risk Names to Avoid: Q3 2019

Australia

Link Administration Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides fund administration, corporate markets, information, and digital and data services. Link Administration Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Link Administration (LNK AU)

Link Admin: Hardball Tactics After Meagre Bump

The initial terms were opportunistic. So are the revised terms. But the short time frame in which to open the data room is a gun to the head of...

David Blennerhassett

Link Admin/PEP: All Together Now. Again

Four years after exiting a company it built from scratch, PEP returns with an indicative proposal to take private the largest provider of...

David Blennerhassett

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2020 Small-Mid Cap High Risk Names to Avoid

Our Q4-2019 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks produced an average price decline of 6.1% and on a market cap weighted basis a decline of...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap High Risk Names to Avoid: Q4 2019

* Our Q3-2019 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks ( Screening the Silkroad: Small-Mid Cap High-Risk Names to Avoid: Q3 2019 ) produced a market...

David Lepper

Screening the Silkroad: Small-Mid Cap High-Risk Names to Avoid: Q3 2019

Reduced List, but significant all the same OurQ2-2019 Small-Mid Cap High-Risk list of stocks (Screening the Silkroad: Small-Mid Cap High-Risk...

David Lepper

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