IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> H Share's flat debut, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a>'s listing approval for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, DTAC/True </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) H Share's flat debut, Leapmotor (2007699D HK)'s listing approval for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO.
Event-Driven developments - Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Pendal Group (PDL AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), DTAC/True 


Weekly Deals Digest (28 Aug) - Leapmotor, DTAC/True, Ramsay, Pendal, Link Admin, Infomedia, ResApp

<ul>
<li>Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.</li>
<li>Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.</li>
<li>The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).</li>
</ul>


Shareholders approved the scheme at the scheme meeting. However, Link Administration (LNK AU) shares declined due to the slow progress in satisfaction of conditions precedent.
Key conditions precedent is ACCC, FIRB, UK's FCA and Central Bank of Ireland approvals. The wording in the Chairman's address on the conditions precedent is incrementally negative.
The downside to a deal break remains low. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%) outweighs the downside (-3.8% to our A$4.21 price target).


Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:112:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dongzheng-automotive-finance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27984:1" rel="noopener">Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excelpoint-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1774:1" rel="noopener">Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a>, MyDeal.com, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads are 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU), Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK).
Lowest gross spreads are MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP), Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK), MyDeal.com, Giordano International (709 HK).


Merger Arb Mondays (22 Aug) - Link, Alliance, Nearmap, Genex, Ramsay, Lifestyle, EVOC, Giordano

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>There could be 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, increasing to 8 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1" rel="noopener">AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU)</a> continues to be halted and if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK)</a> is privatised.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
There could be 6 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), increasing to 8 if AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) continues to be halted and if Link Administration (LNK) is privatised.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>With the Reference Period for the September 2022 Rebalance nearing its end, we take a final look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1" rel="noopener">AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firefinch-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16094:1" rel="noopener">Firefinch Ltd (FFX AU)</a> are both members of the ASX Index family and are currently suspended from trading. There could be index consequences here.</li>
<li>Based on current data, I expect 7 ADDs/DELs for the ASX 200 Index and 22 ADDs and 18 DELs for the ASX 300 Index.</li>
</ul>


With the Reference Period for the September 2022 Rebalance nearing its end, we take a final look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20.

AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) and Firefinch Ltd (FFX AU) are both members of the ASX Index family and are currently suspended from trading. There could be index consequences here.
Based on current data, I expect 7 ADDs/DELs for the ASX 200 Index and 22 ADDs and 18 DELs for the ASX 300 Index.


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Potential Last Minute Surprises

Australia

Link Administration Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides fund administration, corporate markets, information, and digital and data services. Link Administration Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Link Administration (LNK AU)

Weekly Deals Digest (28 Aug) - Leapmotor, DTAC/True, Ramsay, Pendal, Link Admin, Infomedia, ResApp

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (DTAC/True, Ramsay, Pendal, Link Admin, ResApp, Infomedia, Nearmap, MACA, Lifestyle) and...

Arun George

Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

The scheme is approved, but the deal break risks from conditions precedent remain. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%)...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Aug) - Link, Alliance, Nearmap, Genex, Ramsay, Lifestyle, EVOC, Giordano

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (58.4%), Alliance Aviation (35.7%), Ramsay (19.2%), Infomedia (13.3%), ResApp (12.4%), Lifestyle...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Potential Last Minute Surprises

The ASX 200 ADDs have underperformed the ASX 200 DELs in the last 3 months. Over the next couple of weeks, the ADDs could outperform the DELs

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

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Weekly Deals Digest (28 Aug) - Leapmotor, DTAC/True, Ramsay, Pendal, Link Admin, Infomedia, ResApp

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (DTAC/True, Ramsay, Pendal, Link Admin, ResApp, Infomedia, Nearmap, MACA, Lifestyle) and...

Arun George

Link’s Scheme Approved but Time Running Out for Satisfying Conditions Precedent

The scheme is approved, but the deal break risks from conditions precedent remain. At the last close, the potential upside to the offer (10.1%)...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Aug) - Link, Alliance, Nearmap, Genex, Ramsay, Lifestyle, EVOC, Giordano

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (58.4%), Alliance Aviation (35.7%), Ramsay (19.2%), Infomedia (13.3%), ResApp (12.4%), Lifestyle...

Arun George

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Potential Last Minute Surprises

The ASX 200 ADDs have underperformed the ASX 200 DELs in the last 3 months. Over the next couple of weeks, the ADDs could outperform the DELs

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Potential Last Minute Surprises