Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>LFVN reports its 4QFY24 results on Wednesday, August 28, after market close. </li><li>We are not changing our forecasts. Our detailed earnings models are below.</li><li>We are looking for recent trends to continue. Sales have been challenged all year, with the company bringing down its FY24 sales outlook as the fiscal year progressed, while keeping its adjusted EBITDA forecast the same, as margins have been better than originally expected.</li></ul>

LFVN reports its 4QFY24 results on Wednesday, August 28, after market close. We are not changing our forecasts. Our detailed earnings models are below.We are looking for recent trends to continue. Sales have been challenged all year, with the company bringing down its FY24 sales outlook as the fiscal year progressed, while keeping its adjusted EBITDA forecast the same, as margins have been better than originally expected.

LifeVantage Corporation - (LFVN) 4QFY24 Results Due Next Week

<ul><li>3QFY24 EPS was $0.21 versus a depressed $0.08 in 3QFY23 and above our $0.16 estimate.</li><li>3QFY24 EBITDA of $5.1 million beat our $4.6 million estimate and was up sharply from $3.3 million a year ago.</li><li>EBITDA margin of 10.5% exceeded our 8.7% estimate, driven primarily by lower commissions and incentives as a percentage of sales than we expected (210 bps), as well as lower SG&amp;A (70 bps).</li></ul>

3QFY24 EPS was $0.21 versus a depressed $0.08 in 3QFY23 and above our $0.16 estimate.3QFY24 EBITDA of $5.1 million beat our $4.6 million estimate and was up sharply from $3.3 million a year ago.EBITDA margin of 10.5% exceeded our 8.7% estimate, driven primarily by lower commissions and incentives as a percentage of sales than we expected (210 bps), as well as lower SG&amp;A (70 bps).

LifeVantage Corporation - 3QFY24 Profit Upside on Modest Sales Shortfall

<ul><li>We have updated our models following the company’s 2QFY24 (December) earnings release.</li><li>We are raising our EPS estimates for FY24 (June) to $0.60 from $0.55, FY25 (June) to $0.70 from $0.65, and FY26 (June) to $0.80 from $0.75. Since 2QFY24 beat our previous forecast by $0.06, we are essentially flowing through that upside.</li><li>Our $0.60 EPS estimate for FY24 is toward the lower end of management’s new range of $0.57-0.67, which was raised from $0.52-0.62 at the time of the release.</li></ul>

We have updated our models following the company’s 2QFY24 (December) earnings release.We are raising our EPS estimates for FY24 (June) to $0.60 from $0.55, FY25 (June) to $0.70 from $0.65, and FY26 (June) to $0.80 from $0.75. Since 2QFY24 beat our previous forecast by $0.06, we are essentially flowing through that upside.Our $0.60 EPS estimate for FY24 is toward the lower end of management’s new range of $0.57-0.67, which was raised from $0.52-0.62 at the time of the release.

LifeVantage Corporation - Raising EPS & EBITDA Estimates; Trimming Sales

<ul><li>2QFY24 (December) ongoing EPS was $0.10 versus ($0.07) in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $0.04 estimate.</li><li>Ongoing EBITDA was $3.1MM in the quarter, well above the $0.8MM in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $2.5MM estimate.</li><li>EBITDA margins of 6.0% exceeded our 4.6% estimate.</li></ul>

2QFY24 (December) ongoing EPS was $0.10 versus ($0.07) in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $0.04 estimate.Ongoing EBITDA was $3.1MM in the quarter, well above the $0.8MM in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $2.5MM estimate.EBITDA margins of 6.0% exceeded our 4.6% estimate.

<ul><li>Growth resumed for both sales and EPS in 4QFY23, the first time in 16 quarters that both grew simultaneously.</li><li>While sales growth flattened out a bit in the 1QFY24 (September), top-line momentum continued in the US, driven by the success of the LV360 initiatives, and company-wide EBITDA grew 41.1%, driven by a 230- basis-point improvement in margins.</li><li>The resumption of growth could be sustainable, driven by a wide range of company-specific initiatives, most importantly its LV360 initiatives, including a sweeping overhaul of its consultant compensation plan, and robust new product activity.</li></ul>

Growth resumed for both sales and EPS in 4QFY23, the first time in 16 quarters that both grew simultaneously.While sales growth flattened out a bit in the 1QFY24 (September), top-line momentum continued in the US, driven by the success of the LV360 initiatives, and company-wide EBITDA grew 41.1%, driven by a 230- basis-point improvement in margins.The resumption of growth could be sustainable, driven by a wide range of company-specific initiatives, most importantly its LV360 initiatives, including a sweeping overhaul of its consultant compensation plan, and robust new product activity.

LifeVantage Corporation - Believe Recent Return to Growth to Be Sustainable

United States

Lifevantage Corporation is a health and nutrition company that develops dietary supplements. The Company produces nutritional products that are intended to combat oxidative stress to support brain, eye, and joint function, as well as skin canine products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lifevantage (LFVN US)

LifeVantage Corporation - (LFVN) 4QFY24 Results Due Next Week

LFVN reports its 4QFY24 results on Wednesday, August 28, after market close. We are not changing our forecasts. Our detailed earnings models are...

Water Tower Research

LifeVantage Corporation - 3QFY24 Profit Upside on Modest Sales Shortfall

EBITDA margin of 10.5% exceeded our 8.7% estimate, driven primarily by lower commissions and incentives as a percentage of sales than we expected...

Water Tower Research

LifeVantage Corporation - Raising EPS & EBITDA Estimates; Trimming Sales

We are raising our EPS estimates for FY24 (June) to $0.60 from $0.55, FY25 (June) to $0.70 from $0.65, and FY26 (June) to $0.80 from $0.75. Since...

Water Tower Research

UPDATE NOTE - LifeVantage Corporation

Ongoing EBITDA was $3.1MM in the quarter, well above the $0.8MM in 2QFY23 and ahead of our $2.5MM estimate. EBITDA margins of 6.0% exceeded our...

Water Tower Research

LifeVantage Corporation - Believe Recent Return to Growth to Be Sustainable

The resumption of growth could be sustainable, driven by a wide range of company-specific initiatives, most importantly its LV360 initiatives

Water Tower Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)