Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The following is an in-depth review of Japanese retail in the last 18 months covering all the main formats and categories, providing a quick way to see an overview of all the key trends and winners and losers in Japanese retailing now and going forward.FY2020 was an anomaly and one that businesses everywhere will want to forget and never repeat. There was more than enough pain among Japan’s top retailers last year, but equally some formats did surprisingly well given the circumstances.For most, work-from-home was the single most important factor in determining a chain’s fortunes. City-centre stores and shopping centres offering mostly discretionary shopping have been hit hard, as have convenience stores.But those chains selling essentials, healthcare, electronics and, most importantly, food, all saw their fortunes improve. The pandemic has also revealed the strong, dynamic players and exposed the weaker ones. Oh, and everyone needs to be online.

The following is an in-depth review of Japanese retail in the last 18 months covering all the main formats and categories, providing a quick way to see an overview of all the key trends and winners and losers in Japanese retailing now and going forward.FY2020 was an anomaly and one that businesses everywhere will want to forget and never repeat. There was more than enough pain among Japan’s top retailers last year, but equally some formats did surprisingly well given the circumstances.For most, work-from-home was the single most important factor in determining a chain’s fortunes. City-centre stores and shopping centres offering mostly discretionary shopping have been hit hard, as have convenience stores.But those chains selling essentials, healthcare, electronics and, most importantly, food, all saw their fortunes improve. The pandemic has also revealed the strong, dynamic players and exposed the weaker ones. Oh, and everyone needs to be online.

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Monthly sales data for GMS chains and department store branches was withheld last year as companies were reluctant to reveal just how bad things were. For most GMS chains, however, it turns out CY2020 was a great year and for food supermarkets, the shift to buying more fresh food could endure beyond the pandemic. Department stores did poorly but there were some striking differences in performance between stores.

Monthly sales data for GMS chains and department store branches was withheld last year as companies were reluctant to reveal just how bad things were. For most GMS chains, however, it turns out CY2020 was a great year and for food supermarkets, the shift to buying more fresh food could endure beyond the pandemic. Department stores did poorly but there were some striking differences in performance between stores. 

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

Equity Bottom-Up

Last year saw the launch of a new netsuper by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life Corp (8194 JP)</a>. The combination of the leading e-commerce retailer and the country’s top supermarket chain makes this one of the strongest contenders in the race for online food sales, particularly as Life is under the control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> – although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> aren’t standing still.
Amazon is now expanding its tie-up with Life and plans to bring in Valor as a new partner later this year and is highly likely to add further partnerships going forward.

Last year saw the launch of a new netsuper by Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Life Corp (8194 JP). The combination of the leading e-commerce retailer and the country’s top supermarket chain makes this one of the strongest contenders in the race for online food sales, particularly as Life is under the control of Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) – although Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) and Z Holdings (4689 JP) aren’t standing still.
Amazon is now expanding its tie-up with Life and plans to bring in Valor as a new partner later this year and is highly likely to add further partnerships going forward.

Amazon Adds Partnership with Valor in Race for Japan Online Food Retail Leadership

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<div>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed in the First Section, Second Section, MOTHERS Market, and the JASDAQ Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents that are selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.</div><div>
A periodic review will be conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review will be conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. 
Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event. Below is a discussion on the latest adjustments required for the basket portfolio based on March-end data. 
</div>

JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed in the First Section, Second Section, MOTHERS Market, and the JASDAQ Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents that are selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.
A periodic review will be conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review will be conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. 
Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event. Below is a discussion on the latest adjustments required for the basket portfolio based on March-end data. 


JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance: Pre-Event Basket Adjustments for March-End

Japan

LIFE CORPORATION operates a supermarket chain mainly in Kansai and Kanto areas. The Company sells mainly groceries, and also clothing, and household utensils.

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Life Corp (8194 JP)

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

A complete review of the Japanese retail sector in the last 18 months, format by format, category by category, providing key trends and winners &...

Michael Causton

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

A review of the 2020 performance of Japanese GMS chains and department stores. There is more growth for food-based GMS retailers but department...

Michael Causton

Amazon Adds Partnership with Valor in Race for Japan Online Food Retail Leadership

Amazon is reaching out to the leading supermarkets in each region to create a network of supply and delivery points for its online supermarket in...

Michael Causton

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance: Pre-Event Basket Adjustments for March-End

JPX Nikkei 400 Pre-Event Basket Bets - Every month-end we publish updated estimates for the August 2021 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance based on updated...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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