Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<div>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed in the First Section, Second Section, MOTHERS Market, and the JASDAQ Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents that are selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.</div><div>
A periodic review will be conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review will be conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. 
Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event. Below is a discussion on the latest adjustments required for the basket portfolio based on March-end data. 
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JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed in the First Section, Second Section, MOTHERS Market, and the JASDAQ Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents that are selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.
A periodic review will be conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review will be conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. 
Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event. Below is a discussion on the latest adjustments required for the basket portfolio based on March-end data. 


JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance: Pre-Event Basket Adjustments for March-End

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• RESULTS - 28th MARCH •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/770/original/image_57334545521616964192596.png?1616964192" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197770"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/771/original/image_10738985631616964271545.png?1616964271" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197771"></figure>RESULTS - Of Friday's seven results announcements, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/demae-can-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10524:1" rel="noopener">Demae-Can (2484 JP)</a> saw a significant decline in profitability, although our scoring system gives the company credit for the 210% year-on-year change in revenues - they continue to 'make it up on volume'! • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 28th MARCH •<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/772/original/2021-03-27_08-15-34.png?1616964525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197772"></figure></section>FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Of the 32 annual forecasts and revisions, only 56% scored positively of which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life (8194 JP)</a> was the largest cap. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/774/original/image_47158678551616964791891.png?1616964792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197774"></figure>Meanwhile, urban railway operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/odakyu-electric-railway-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5405:1" rel="noopener">Odakyu Electric Railway (9007 JP) </a>is forecasting slightly lower full-year operating income but has added ¥8.3 billion in net losses to February's forecast.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/775/original/image_73678410461616964884061.png?1616964884" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197775"></figure>

• RESULTS - 28th MARCH •RESULTS - Of Friday's seven results announcements, only Demae-Can (2484 JP) saw a significant decline in profitability, although our scoring system gives the company credit for the 210% year-on-year change in revenues - they continue to 'make it up on volume'! • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 28th MARCH •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Of the 32 annual forecasts and revisions, only 56% scored positively of which Life (8194 JP) was the largest cap. Meanwhile, urban railway operator Odakyu Electric Railway (9007 JP) is forecasting slightly lower full-year operating income but has added ¥8.3 billion in net losses to February's forecast.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

The following is a review of how physical retailers are progressing online and includes a unique ranking of the TOP 50 Online Retailers by sales, platforms sold on and growth.
Japanese retailers were famously behind peers in other markets to tackle e-commerce but many have caught up and become world class such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP). </a>
More worrying for those lagging behind such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, estimates suggest that online will have some role in 50% of purchasing transactions by 2025.
Despite retailers' efforts, the big three online malls, Amazon, Rakuten and Yahoo! Shopping still control half of the e-commerce market for merchandise.

The following is a review of how physical retailers are progressing online and includes a unique ranking of the TOP 50 Online Retailers by sales, platforms sold on and growth.
Japanese retailers were famously behind peers in other markets to tackle e-commerce but many have caught up and become world class such as Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Nitori Holdings (9843 JP). 
More worrying for those lagging behind such as Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), estimates suggest that online will have some role in 50% of purchasing transactions by 2025.
Despite retailers' efforts, the big three online malls, Amazon, Rakuten and Yahoo! Shopping still control half of the e-commerce market for merchandise.

Tip of the Iceberg: Omnichannel 50% of Japan Retail in 2025

Penetration (the share of total retail sales) of e-commerce in Japan increased sharply in the past few years but still varies significantly by category.
The following insight looks at each consumer product category and how penetration has grown in the last few years and provides estimates of trends to 2025.
Even with these relatively cautious rates of growth, penetration rates are set to expand significantly in apparel, household &amp; interior, books &amp; media, and stationery but only retailers with form in successful online marketing will benefit from this with major negative implications for the many retailers that have failed to tackle the threat from online. This includes even major retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> which lags behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">  and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> in the race to lead the battle for leadership in online food retailing.

Penetration (the share of total retail sales) of e-commerce in Japan increased sharply in the past few years but still varies significantly by category.
The following insight looks at each consumer product category and how penetration has grown in the last few years and provides estimates of trends to 2025.
Even with these relatively cautious rates of growth, penetration rates are set to expand significantly in apparel, household &amp; interior, books &amp; media, and stationery but only retailers with form in successful online marketing will benefit from this with major negative implications for the many retailers that have failed to tackle the threat from online. This includes even major retailers like Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) which lags behind Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)  and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) in the race to lead the battle for leadership in online food retailing.

E-Commerce Penetration Increasing in All Retail Categories

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come.

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come. 

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

Japan

LIFE CORPORATION operates a supermarket chain mainly in Kansai and Kanto areas. The Company sells mainly groceries, and also clothing, and household utensils.

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Life Corp (8194 JP)

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance: Pre-Event Basket Adjustments for March-End

JPX Nikkei 400 Pre-Event Basket Bets - Every month-end we publish updated estimates for the August 2021 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance based on updated...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

Of Friday's seven results announcements, only Demae-Can (2484 JP) saw a significant decline in profitability - they continue to 'make it up on...

Campbell Gunn

Tip of the Iceberg: Omnichannel 50% of Japan Retail in 2025

We have compiled a unique ranking of the top 50 E-commerce retailers in Japan and provide an analysis of winners and losers among retailers now and...

Michael Causton

E-Commerce Penetration Increasing in All Retail Categories

A review of online market share in all key consumer categories in Japan, with forecasts for e-commerce market share to 2025 –the sharp growth will...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance: Pre-Event Basket Adjustments for March-End

JPX Nikkei 400 Pre-Event Basket Bets - Every month-end we publish updated estimates for the August 2021 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance based on updated...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

Of Friday's seven results announcements, only Demae-Can (2484 JP) saw a significant decline in profitability - they continue to 'make it up on...

Campbell Gunn

Tip of the Iceberg: Omnichannel 50% of Japan Retail in 2025

We have compiled a unique ranking of the top 50 E-commerce retailers in Japan and provide an analysis of winners and losers among retailers now and...

Michael Causton

E-Commerce Penetration Increasing in All Retail Categories

A review of online market share in all key consumer categories in Japan, with forecasts for e-commerce market share to 2025 –the sharp growth will...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway