China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The sluggish growth of Chinese economy in the past couple of months ignited concerns regarding the future of the economy. The slow growth in exports posed various threats to the highly leveraged economy which depends upon state owned enterprises and the debts owed by them. However, some sectors such as real estate have started to show signs of improvement which surely will help the economy.While the slow economic growth left Beijing concerned, the recent official data released by presents a…

The sluggish growth of Chinese economy in the past couple of months ignited concerns regarding the future of the economy. The slow growth in exports posed various threats to the highly leveraged economy which depends upon state owned enterprises and the debts owed by them. However, some sectors such as real estate have started to show signs of improvement which surely will help the economy.While the slow economic growth left Beijing concerned, the recent official data released by presents a…

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In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic. We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic. Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China. Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.  We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic.  Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China.  Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty <ul>
<li>In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. </li>
<li>
Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…</li>
</ul>

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty 
In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. 

Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…


China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

China

Lifan Industry (Group) Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells motorcycles, cars and gasoline engines. The Company's major products include motorcycles, motorcycle engines, passenger cars, passenger car engines, gasoline engines and other terminal products such as generator sets, water pumps and lawn mowers.

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Lifan Industry (Group) (601777 CH)

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This...

Christopher Balding

Inside the Chinese Retail Sector

The sluggish growth of Chinese economy in the past couple of months ignited concerns regarding the future of the economy. The slow growth in...

Christopher Balding

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers...

David Riedel

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events...

David Riedel

China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key...

David Riedel

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