Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> has got approval from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> for a dual primary listing. Media reports indicate that the company could raise between US$1bn-2bn in the offering. Based on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> timeline, Li Auto could list around 6-9 August.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng (XPEV US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> raised US$1.8bn via a dual primary listing earlier this month and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> is following closely behind. Maybe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> comes next.We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> to get Fast Entry to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) though, as a WVR security, the stock will only be eligible for Stock Connect once it has completed 6 months of listing plus 20 trading days.Li Auto could also be included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the December review. This will lead to a further drop in the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures since we do not expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> to pay dividends in the near future, while the potential deletion is a higher dividend yielding stock.

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) has got approval from the HKEX (388 HK) for a dual primary listing. Media reports indicate that the company could raise between US$1bn-2bn in the offering. Based on the XPeng (9868 HK) timeline, Li Auto could list around 6-9 August.Xpeng (XPEV US) / XPeng (9868 HK) raised US$1.8bn via a dual primary listing earlier this month and Li Auto Inc. (LI US) is following closely behind. Maybe NIO Inc (NIO US) comes next.We expect Li Auto Inc. (LI US) to get Fast Entry to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) though, as a WVR security, the stock will only be eligible for Stock Connect once it has completed 6 months of listing plus 20 trading days.Li Auto could also be included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December review. This will lead to a further drop in the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures since we do not expect Li Auto Inc. (LI US) to pay dividends in the near future, while the potential deletion is a higher dividend yielding stock.

Li Auto (LI US) Dual Primary Listing: HSCI Fast Entry; HSCEI Dec Inclusion & Div Futures Lower

Xpeng (9868 HK) listed in Hong Kong on 7 July was added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the close of trading on 20 July. However, being a WVR security, the stock will not be eligible for Southbound Stock Connect till early 2022.Subject to passing the velocity test, we see Xpeng (9868 HK) as an inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>.With Hang Seng Indexes treating the stock as a primary listing, HSCEI passive trackers will need to buy a large part of the stock that was offered in Hong Kong. This could push Xpeng (9868 HK) to trade at a premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng (XPEV US)</a> and there will be arb opportunities which could result in conversion from the ADS to the HK listing.The inclusion of Xpeng (9868 HK) in the index will push the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> 2022 dividend futures lower. With the recent changes in China to companies looking to list on a foreign exchange, the HFCAA, and other structural changes to the index, we prefer a short position in the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures.

Xpeng (9868 HK) listed in Hong Kong on 7 July was added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the close of trading on 20 July. However, being a WVR security, the stock will not be eligible for Southbound Stock Connect till early 2022.Subject to passing the velocity test, we see Xpeng (9868 HK) as an inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December rebalance, replacing Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK).With Hang Seng Indexes treating the stock as a primary listing, HSCEI passive trackers will need to buy a large part of the stock that was offered in Hong Kong. This could push Xpeng (9868 HK) to trade at a premium to Xpeng (XPEV US) and there will be arb opportunities which could result in conversion from the ADS to the HK listing.The inclusion of Xpeng (9868 HK) in the index will push the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) 2022 dividend futures lower. With the recent changes in China to companies looking to list on a foreign exchange, the HFCAA, and other structural changes to the index, we prefer a short position in the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures.

Xpeng (9868 HK): Potential HSCEI Inclusion & Impact on 2022 Dividends

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

We have expressed our positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> in various Insights previously. In this Insight, we look at the proposed H-share IPO from the perspective of investors who do not know it well. For seasoned investors in this name, this Insight serves as a summary of our views and provides background details on the proposed IPO.Fundamentally speaking, the key positives for CTG Duty Free are: 1.) absolute leadership in China's duty free market, 2.) encouraging growth outlook, and 3.) solid profitability and financial position. Key negatives are: 1.) policy risk and rising competition, 2.) concern on payback of new projects, and 3.) risk of overseas expansion. If the IPO is being priced at the current average H-A discount, it will be on 32.7x FY21F PER, we see this not expensive relative to the premium retailers listed in Hong Kong.

We have expressed our positive view on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) in various Insights previously. In this Insight, we look at the proposed H-share IPO from the perspective of investors who do not know it well. For seasoned investors in this name, this Insight serves as a summary of our views and provides background details on the proposed IPO.Fundamentally speaking, the key positives for CTG Duty Free are: 1.) absolute leadership in China's duty free market, 2.) encouraging growth outlook, and 3.) solid profitability and financial position. Key negatives are: 1.) policy risk and rising competition, 2.) concern on payback of new projects, and 3.) risk of overseas expansion. If the IPO is being priced at the current average H-A discount, it will be on 32.7x FY21F PER, we see this not expensive relative to the premium retailers listed in Hong Kong. 

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share Pre-IPO: Fundamentally Speaking

Hang Seng Indexes has increased the number of index shares and free float for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a>, with no change made to the capping factor.This will lead to an increase in the index weight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and passive funds benchmarked to the indices will need to buy the stock at the close of trading on 16 July while selling the other index constituents.For July, we estimate passive funds will need to buy 45.52m shares (HK$9.34bn; 2 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>. The largest impact of passive selling in terms of days of ADV will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14433:1" rel="noopener">CLP Holdings (2 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)</a>.However, passive funds will need to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> at the implementation of the quarterly rebalance in September when the capping factor will be lowered to cap the weight of the stock at 8% in the three indices.

Hang Seng Indexes has increased the number of index shares and free float for Alibaba Group (9988 HK) in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX), with no change made to the capping factor.This will lead to an increase in the index weight for Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and passive funds benchmarked to the indices will need to buy the stock at the close of trading on 16 July while selling the other index constituents.For July, we estimate passive funds will need to buy 45.52m shares (HK$9.34bn; 2 days of ADV) of Alibaba Group (9988 HK). The largest impact of passive selling in terms of days of ADV will be on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), CLP Holdings (2 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK).However, passive funds will need to sell Alibaba Group (9988 HK) at the implementation of the quarterly rebalance in September when the capping factor will be lowered to cap the weight of the stock at 8% in the three indices.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Passive Inflow from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH Trackers in July

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

In our weekly HK Connect Flow series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the southbound Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. Since the opening of Hong Kong Connect scheme in 2014, southbound Chinese money started to play an increasingly important role in the Hong Kong stock market. In a Hong Kong exchange report released in July 2019, the exchange highlighted that flows from mainland China accounted for 12% of the total trading volume in the market and is ahead of the US investors' 10% and UK investors' 7% share respectively.  We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: HSCEI component stocks, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion. In this insight, we will highlight inflows into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, as well as outflows from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>.

In our weekly HK Connect Flow series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the southbound Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine.  Since the opening of Hong Kong Connect scheme in 2014, southbound Chinese money started to play an increasingly important role in the Hong Kong stock market. In a Hong Kong exchange report released in July 2019, the exchange highlighted that flows from mainland China accounted for 12% of the total trading volume in the market and is ahead of the US investors' 10% and UK investors' 7% share respectively.   We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: HSCEI component stocks, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.   In this insight, we will highlight inflows into Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), as well as outflows from  Tencent (700 HK).

China

Li Ning Company Limited researches, designs, manufactures, distributes, and retails sports footwear, apparel and accessories for sport and leisure use.

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Li Ning (2331 HK)

Li Auto (LI US) Dual Primary Listing: HSCI Fast Entry; HSCEI Dec Inclusion & Div Futures Lower

Li Auto is looking to dual-primary list in HK. The stock should get Fast Entry to the HSCI and join Southbound Stock Connect in Q1 2022. Li Auto...

Brian Freitas

Xpeng (9868 HK): Potential HSCEI Inclusion & Impact on 2022 Dividends

Xpeng (9868 HK) could be added to the HSCEI in December. Limited liquidity in HK could create arb opportunities with XPEV US. Xpeng index inclusion...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (9988 HK): Passive Inflow from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH Trackers in July

Following an increase in the number of CCASS shares and free float, Alibaba's index shares will be increased. Passive HSI/ HSCEI/ HSTECH trackers...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Li Ning Inflows

We will highlight weekly Hong Kong Connect inflows into Li Ning Company Limited (2331 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), and outflows from Tencent Holdings...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Li Auto (LI US) Dual Primary Listing: HSCI Fast Entry; HSCEI Dec Inclusion & Div Futures Lower

Li Auto is looking to dual-primary list in HK. The stock should get Fast Entry to the HSCI and join Southbound Stock Connect in Q1 2022. Li Auto...

Brian Freitas

Xpeng (9868 HK): Potential HSCEI Inclusion & Impact on 2022 Dividends

Xpeng (9868 HK) could be added to the HSCEI in December. Limited liquidity in HK could create arb opportunities with XPEV US. Xpeng index inclusion...

Brian Freitas

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share Pre-IPO: Fundamentally Speaking

In relation to CTG Duty Free's H-share IPO, key positives are: 1.) absolute leadership in China's duty free market, 2.) encouraging growth outlook,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Alibaba (9988 HK): Passive Inflow from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH Trackers in July

Following an increase in the number of CCASS shares and free float, Alibaba's index shares will be increased. Passive HSI/ HSCEI/ HSTECH trackers...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Li Ning Inflows

We will highlight weekly Hong Kong Connect inflows into Li Ning Company Limited (2331 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), and outflows from Tencent Holdings...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM