HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, which presents opportunities in 2026.</li>
<li>Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.</li>
<li>3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. </li>
</ul>


After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on Meituan (3690 HK), which presents opportunities in 2026.
Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.
3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. 


2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Both passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales and wholesale volumes in China are likely to hit new highs in 2025E.</li><li>That, along with trade-in subsidy and purchase-tax saving phase-out, could make 2026 interesting and complex.</li><li>Resilient industry growth despite subsidy cuts. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Both passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales and wholesale volumes in China are likely to hit new highs in 2025E.That, along with trade-in subsidy and purchase-tax saving phase-out, could make 2026 interesting and complex.Resilient industry growth despite subsidy cuts. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 2026 Outlook: Second half of the NEV match

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US)</a> at the close of trading on 19 December.</li>
<li>Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> add at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The HA premiums for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a> dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.


FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in CATL, Csop Hsi (2X Inv), Central New Energy, Xiaomi, TraHK HSI ETF.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in CATL, Csop Hsi (2X Inv), Central New Energy, Xiaomi, TraHK HSI ETF.


HK Short Interest Weekly: CATL, Central New Energy, Xiaomi

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com, HSBC, Jd, CCB, Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com, HSBC, Jd, CCB, Meituan.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Nov): HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (2015 HK)

2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

The market's unanimous bearish stance on Meituan creates opportunities in 2026, given its low P/B and high net cash-to-share price. Margins are so...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Auto - 2026 Outlook: Second half of the NEV match

Resilient industry growth despite subsidy cuts. We project China’s PV retail sales volume to be largely flat YoY and wholesale volume to rise 2.9%...

CMB International

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

There are 3 changes for the FXI in Dec. 2 adds will also be added to a global index at the same time while the other is an HSCEI add at the close...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: CATL, Central New Energy, Xiaomi

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 21st and highlight short interest changes in CATL, Csop Hsi (2X Inv),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Index Earning Revision (Nov): HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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