Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 11 March, Korea Financial Investment Association (KFIA) announced that it will tighten IPO requirements for institutional investors.</li>
<li>This is likely to further dampen the local IPO market in Korea which has been in the doldrums after the biggest-ever IPO in Korea LG Energy Solution two month ago.</li>
<li>As a result of the change in the IPO requirements for institutional investors, this is likely to to negatively impact smaller investment funds without adequate amount of AUM.</li>
</ul>


On 11 March, Korea Financial Investment Association (KFIA) announced that it will tighten IPO requirements for institutional investors.
This is likely to further dampen the local IPO market in Korea which has been in the doldrums after the biggest-ever IPO in Korea LG Energy Solution two month ago.
As a result of the change in the IPO requirements for institutional investors, this is likely to to negatively impact smaller investment funds without adequate amount of AUM.


Korean Financial Authorities Tighten IPO Requirements for Institutional Investors

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KODEX battery ETF does rebalancing four times a year from this March. The rebalancing trading is done for 3-trading days from March 14 to 16, presumably equal daily weight.</li>
<li>Due to the low float rate, LG Energy will fall to third place. Samsung SDI should become the top constituent with a 20% cap, followed by SK Innovation at 15%.</li>
<li>The passive impact sizes of the top four stocks are significant, considering they are in the same sector. So, they should make themselves a suitable target for long/short basket trading.</li>
</ul>


KODEX battery ETF does rebalancing four times a year from this March. The rebalancing trading is done for 3-trading days from March 14 to 16, presumably equal daily weight.
Due to the low float rate, LG Energy will fall to third place. Samsung SDI should become the top constituent with a 20% cap, followed by SK Innovation at 15%.
The passive impact sizes of the top four stocks are significant, considering they are in the same sector. So, they should make themselves a suitable target for long/short basket trading.


KODEX (FnGuide) Battery ETF Rebalancing: Passive Flow Tracking for Two Remaining Days

<ul>
<li>I sorted out those on KOSPI 200 with a weekly short-selling volume exceeding 10% of last week's total trade volume and a 30-day ADTV of +₩5B.</li>
<li>I further screened those having an increase in the weekly loan balance. As a result, I filtered 23 KOSPI 200 constituents meeting these conditions.</li>
<li>Among the filtered ones, those whose stock price did not drop last week are screened, meaning that the market's expectations for further share price declines are high for these names.</li>
</ul>


I sorted out those on KOSPI 200 with a weekly short-selling volume exceeding 10% of last week's total trade volume and a 30-day ADTV of +₩5B.
I further screened those having an increase in the weekly loan balance. As a result, I filtered 23 KOSPI 200 constituents meeting these conditions.
Among the filtered ones, those whose stock price did not drop last week are screened, meaning that the market's expectations for further share price declines are high for these names.


Short Interest Flow Checkup on KOSPI 200 Constituents

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LG Energy offers extremely inflated valuation multiples that are even more stretched than frothy peers. </li>
<li>It also offers numerous other red flags due to fire risks and a regional production capacity spread that could prove disadvantageous. </li>
<li>Recent commodity price surges also impair the competitiveness of EVs overall but also LG Energy’s NMC chemistry vs. LFP.</li>
</ul>


LG Energy offers extremely inflated valuation multiples that are even more stretched than frothy peers. 
It also offers numerous other red flags due to fire risks and a regional production capacity spread that could prove disadvantageous. 
Recent commodity price surges also impair the competitiveness of EVs overall but also LG Energy’s NMC chemistry vs. LFP.


LG Energy – Electrifying Downside Potential

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KOSPI has seven lockup release events that are likely to hit the market. And all of them are IPO institutional and ESOP lockups.</li>
<li>Whether these IPO institutional/ESOP lockups will hit the market directly correlates with the return size from the offering price. And most of them are still far above the offering price.</li>
<li>Therefore, it is highly likely that a meaningful share price correction will occur on each release date. This correlation pattern has been more pronounced in recent lockup release events.</li>
</ul>


KOSPI has seven lockup release events that are likely to hit the market. And all of them are IPO institutional and ESOP lockups.
Whether these IPO institutional/ESOP lockups will hit the market directly correlates with the return size from the offering price. And most of them are still far above the offering price.
Therefore, it is highly likely that a meaningful share price correction will occur on each release date. This correlation pattern has been more pronounced in recent lockup release events.


KOSPI Lockup Releases & Likelihood of Hitting the Market

South Korea

LG Energy Solution produces and sells batteries. The Company manufactures and sells automobile batteries, small batteries, energy storage system batteries, and other products. LG Energy Solution markets its products worldwide.

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LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)

Korean Financial Authorities Tighten IPO Requirements for Institutional Investors

On 11 March, Korea Financial Investment Association (KFIA) announced that it will tighten IPO requirements for institutional investors. This is...

Douglas Kim

KODEX (FnGuide) Battery ETF Rebalancing: Passive Flow Tracking for Two Remaining Days

This post tracks and estimates the passive flows of the KODEX (FnGuide) Battery ETF rebalancing for the remaining two days until this Tuesday.

Sanghyun Park

Short Interest Flow Checkup on KOSPI 200 Constituents

This post checks up the short interests of the KOSPI 200 constituents available for short selling and screens out those with a high potential for a...

Sanghyun Park

LG Energy – Electrifying Downside Potential

LG Energy offers extremely inflated valuation multiples that are even more stretched than frothy peers. Recent commodity price surges also impair...

Mio Kato

KOSPI Lockup Releases & Likelihood of Hitting the Market

This post details the KOSPI lockup releases from now to the end of May. Seven lockup release events are considered a high likelihood of hitting the...

Sanghyun Park

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