President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-electronics-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4877:1" rel="noopener">Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)</a> were stealing share from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electrolux-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22351:1" rel="noopener">Electrolux AB (ELUXB SS)</a> prior to the pandemic.  After pandemic induced demand surge subsides, Vision expects these market share headwinds to revive while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electrolux-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22351:1" rel="noopener">Electrolux AB (ELUXB SS)</a> faces difficult comparisons leading to weak top line growth and rising commodity costs weigh on profits.</p>

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , LG Electronics (066570 KS), and Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) were stealing share from Electrolux AB (ELUXB SS) prior to the pandemic.  After pandemic induced demand surge subsides, Vision expects these market share headwinds to revive while Electrolux AB (ELUXB SS) faces difficult comparisons leading to weak top line growth and rising commodity costs weigh on profits.

Electrolux (ELUXB SS): Asian Competitors, Difficult Comps, & Rising Commodity Costs Create Headwinds

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>On 9 April, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/southkorea-nps/update-1-s-koreas-pension-fund-adjusts-rules-to-raise-domestic-equity-allocation-idUSL1N2M20EN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPS</a> announced that it will change rules to increase the allocation of Korean stocks, which would be the first time in a decade. This adjustment could be implemented starting next week. This change comes after a lot of pressure by the retail investors.</p>
<p>NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%, increasing the percentage of Korean stocks it can hold from the current band of 14.8% -18.8% (+/- 2% with 16.8% as base) to 13.8% -19.8% (+/- 3% with 16.8% as base). NPS's target of the domestic equity allocation is 16.8% (of total fund amount). <strong>As a result of this change, the sale of domestic stocks by the NPS is expected to slow down.</strong></p>
</div>


On 9 April, the NPS announced that it will change rules to increase the allocation of Korean stocks, which would be the first time in a decade. This adjustment could be implemented starting next week. This change comes after a lot of pressure by the retail investors.
NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%, increasing the percentage of Korean stocks it can hold from the current band of 14.8% -18.8% (+/- 2% with 16.8% as base) to 13.8% -19.8% (+/- 3% with 16.8% as base). NPS's target of the domestic equity allocation is 16.8% (of total fund amount). As a result of this change, the sale of domestic stocks by the NPS is expected to slow down.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>On 26 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a> officially announced it would be splitting itself into two - the core electronics, chemicals, and telecoms business will stay in LG Corp, with the remaining non-core holdings transferred to NewCo, a new holding company, and subsequently spin-off to LG Corp shareholders.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> discussed this transaction beginning with <em><a href="https://skr.ma/BZgGp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LG Group Announces the Formation of LG NewCo &amp; Split of 4 Companies from LG Corp</a></em>, and I added my thoughts in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/Tdpxs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2021 High Conviction: LG Corp's Decade-Low Stub</a></em>.</p>
<p>The benefits of the demerger are projected to be two-fold. The NewCo is expected to improve the competitiveness and efficiency of the business (potentially re-rating the company); but also as an interim step to facilitate share swaps with the family with the two holding companies. This has been speculated since Koo Kwang-mo was inaugurated as chairman in 2018. NewCo's board of directors will be headed by Koo Bon-joon, the uncle of Kwang-Mo. </p>
<p>The remaining Holdco will focus on steady earnings from its core operations (electronics, chemicals, and telecom), and via new opportunities. LG provided further rationale for the spin-off in its 4Q20 results - that is attached at the bottom of this insight.</p>
<p>It was noted, however, that LG Corp would maintain 91.5% of the group's assets - ₩9,779.8bn - as at 3Q20. This raises the question: just how much value can be unlocked by via spinning off ~8%?</p>
<p>The NAV and implied stub <em>widened</em> after the demerger announcement, and following a tepid reversal, narrowed around the time <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a> announced a US$1bn JV with Magna on the 22 December to make electric car gears.</p>
</div>
<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/369/original/image_5243749941614909471522.png?1614909471" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192369"></figure>
<p style="text-align: left;">Source: my calcs, CapIQ</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>On the 15 December, US-headquartered Whitebox said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The spin-off does nothing to address LG’s most pressing issue, which is the unprecedented discount at which the company trades relative to its assets and, accordingly, inferior return to shareholders.</p>
<p>Despite clearly favorable alternatives, the board (of LG) has unanimously approved a plan that, in our view, sacrifices minority shareholder return in order to resolve a family succession issue.</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<div>
<p>Whitebox has now issued a 30-page PowerPoint detailing its objection to the demerger. It's worth a read.</p>
</div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
<div>
<p></p>
</div>


On 26 November, LG Corp (003550 KS) officially announced it would be splitting itself into two - the core electronics, chemicals, and telecoms business will stay in LG Corp, with the remaining non-core holdings transferred to NewCo, a new holding company, and subsequently spin-off to LG Corp shareholders.
Douglas Kim discussed this transaction beginning with LG Group Announces the Formation of LG NewCo &amp; Split of 4 Companies from LG Corp, and I added my thoughts in 2021 High Conviction: LG Corp's Decade-Low Stub.
The benefits of the demerger are projected to be two-fold. The NewCo is expected to improve the competitiveness and efficiency of the business (potentially re-rating the company); but also as an interim step to facilitate share swaps with the family with the two holding companies. This has been speculated since Koo Kwang-mo was inaugurated as chairman in 2018. NewCo's board of directors will be headed by Koo Bon-joon, the uncle of Kwang-Mo. 
The remaining Holdco will focus on steady earnings from its core operations (electronics, chemicals, and telecom), and via new opportunities. LG provided further rationale for the spin-off in its 4Q20 results - that is attached at the bottom of this insight.
It was noted, however, that LG Corp would maintain 91.5% of the group's assets - ₩9,779.8bn - as at 3Q20. This raises the question: just how much value can be unlocked by via spinning off ~8%?
The NAV and implied stub widened after the demerger announcement, and following a tepid reversal, narrowed around the time LG Electronics (066570 KS) announced a US$1bn JV with Magna on the 22 December to make electric car gears.



Source: my calcs, CapIQ


On the 15 December, US-headquartered Whitebox said:

The spin-off does nothing to address LG’s most pressing issue, which is the unprecedented discount at which the company trades relative to its assets and, accordingly, inferior return to shareholders.
Despite clearly favorable alternatives, the board (of LG) has unanimously approved a plan that, in our view, sacrifices minority shareholder return in order to resolve a family succession issue.



Whitebox has now issued a 30-page PowerPoint detailing its objection to the demerger. It's worth a read.

More below the fold.




LG Corp (003550 KS): Whitebox States Its Case

<p>Shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a> increased by 12.8% and 5.3% respectively today. The CEO of LG Elctronics Kwon Bong-Seok announced today that the company is open to all possibilities regarding the MC (mobile communications) business unit which has been a consistently generated big losses for the company in the past decade.</p><p>Basically, although the CEO Kwon has not directly mentioned that the company will sell the MC business unit, he provided indirect clues that the company is now very serious about selling the the money losing MC business unit to boost the overall value of the company. Despite the MC unit coming out with some innovative products, this business unit had 23 consecutive quarters of losses until the end of last year. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Our base case assumes that if the MC business unit is discontinued, the additional value accretion to LG Electronics would be 7.8 trillion won (dividing the annual operating loss of 777 billion won by the 10% perpetuity discount rate). This 7.8 trillion won in value would be 28% of LG Electronics' current market cap of 27.4 trillion won. </strong></p></div>

Shares of LG Electronics (066570 KS) and LG Corp (003550 KS) increased by 12.8% and 5.3% respectively today. The CEO of LG Elctronics Kwon Bong-Seok announced today that the company is open to all possibilities regarding the MC (mobile communications) business unit which has been a consistently generated big losses for the company in the past decade.Basically, although the CEO Kwon has not directly mentioned that the company will sell the MC business unit, he provided indirect clues that the company is now very serious about selling the the money losing MC business unit to boost the overall value of the company. Despite the MC unit coming out with some innovative products, this business unit had 23 consecutive quarters of losses until the end of last year. Our base case assumes that if the MC business unit is discontinued, the additional value accretion to LG Electronics would be 7.8 trillion won (dividing the annual operating loss of 777 billion won by the 10% perpetuity discount rate). This 7.8 trillion won in value would be 28% of LG Electronics' current market cap of 27.4 trillion won. 

Will LG Electronics Finally Sell or Discontinue the MC Business & Fix Its Achilles Heel?

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>In this insight, we provide an updated SoTP (Sum-of-the Parts) valuation analysis of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6653:1" rel="noopener">LG Corp (003550 KS)</a>. We first highlighted a deep valuation gap of this stock in our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lg-corp-deep-value-4-key-catalysts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45512" rel="noopener">LG Corp: Deep Value + 4 Key Catalysts</a> on 19 November 2020. Since then, LG Corp's shares are up 29%. Although LG Corp's shares have performed really well in the past several weeks, we believe there is further significant upside to current share price.</strong></p></div>

In this insight, we provide an updated SoTP (Sum-of-the Parts) valuation analysis of LG Corp (003550 KS). We first highlighted a deep valuation gap of this stock in our insight LG Corp: Deep Value + 4 Key Catalysts on 19 November 2020. Since then, LG Corp's shares are up 29%. Although LG Corp's shares have performed really well in the past several weeks, we believe there is further significant upside to current share price.

LG Corp: Updated SoTP Valuation Analysis & Timing of Key Upcoming Catalyst Events

South Korea

LG Electronics Inc. manufactures and markets digital display equipment and home appliances. The Company produces and markets flat panel televisions, A/V products, washing machines, air conditioners and refrigerators as well as telecommunications equipment such as smart phones and tablets.

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LG Electronics (066570 KS)

Electrolux (ELUXB SS): Asian Competitors, Difficult Comps, & Rising Commodity Costs Create Headwinds

Appliance manufacturer facing intense Asian competition causing weak organic revenue pre-COVID that should resume post-COVID. Difficult comps and...

Robert C Prather Jr

NPS Raises Domestic Equity Allocations

NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%. As a result of this change, the sale of...

Douglas Kim

LG Corp (003550 KS): Whitebox States Its Case

A ~64% discount to NAV - or 66% if using Whitebox's calcs - is non-sensical, and provides a good risk-adjusted return. The downside appears limited...

David Blennerhassett

Will LG Electronics Finally Sell or Discontinue the MC Business & Fix Its Achilles Heel?

Our base case assumes that if the MC business unit of LG Electronics is discontinued, the additional value accretion to LG Electronics would be 7.8...

Douglas Kim

LG Corp: Updated SoTP Valuation Analysis & Timing of Key Upcoming Catalyst Events

In this insight, we provide an updated SoTP (Sum-of-the Parts) valuation analysis of LG Corp. Our revised NAV of LG Corp is 152,080 won,...

Douglas Kim

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