Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Credit markets were stable yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over at 261 bps. European bourses rose 0.1-1.2%. In the US, both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq were flat.</li>
<li>In Asia this morning, the Nikkei is up 1.0%, while the Hang Seng is down 1.1%. US equity futures are slightly higher.</li>
<li>WTI is trading at USD 63.8/bbl, and Brent at USD 66.7/bbl. US President Donald Trump said that he sees the upcoming meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin today as a precursor to a second and more important meeting. </li>
</ul>


Credit markets were stable yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over at 261 bps. European bourses rose 0.1-1.2%. In the US, both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq were flat.
In Asia this morning, the Nikkei is up 1.0%, while the Hang Seng is down 1.1%. US equity futures are slightly higher.
WTI is trading at USD 63.8/bbl, and Brent at USD 66.7/bbl. US President Donald Trump said that he sees the upcoming meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin today as a precursor to a second and more important meeting. 


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consumer demand remains slow but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. Low risk of tariff distortion: 1Q was too high in the US but 2Q has slowed down. </li>
<li>2Q25 highest YoY growth: Apple (22%), Asus (17%), Lenovo (16%). Others are flat. Enterprise growth also implies higher ASP and margins for PC and CPU vendors.</li>
<li>On the CPU side, AMD share gains have slowed in PC, accelerated in Server. Given their roadmap, AMD should keep gaining slowly, Intel defending with difficulty.</li>
</ul>


Consumer demand remains slow but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. Low risk of tariff distortion: 1Q was too high in the US but 2Q has slowed down. 
2Q25 highest YoY growth: Apple (22%), Asus (17%), Lenovo (16%). Others are flat. Enterprise growth also implies higher ASP and margins for PC and CPU vendors.
On the CPU side, AMD share gains have slowed in PC, accelerated in Server. Given their roadmap, AMD should keep gaining slowly, Intel defending with difficulty.


PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year

<ul>
<li>Lenovo is the largest PC maker globally, with a c. 25% market share. It is also a major mobile-phone maker and Top 5 server manufacturer.</li>
<li>At FYE 2024-25 (ended March 2025), Lenovo's revenue was USD 69 bn.</li>
<li>The largest shareholders of the HKEX-listed company are Legend Holdings (37%) and Chairman/CEO Yang Yuanqing (6.2%).</li>
</ul>


Lenovo is the largest PC maker globally, with a c. 25% market share. It is also a major mobile-phone maker and Top 5 server manufacturer.
At FYE 2024-25 (ended March 2025), Lenovo's revenue was USD 69 bn.
The largest shareholders of the HKEX-listed company are Legend Holdings (37%) and Chairman/CEO Yang Yuanqing (6.2%).


<ul>
<li>IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. </li>
<li>No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.</li>
<li>In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. </li>
</ul>


IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. 
No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.
In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. 


3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

China

Lenovo Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, sells, and manufactures personal computers and handheld devices. The Company also provides Internet services and IT services, and contracting manufacturing business.

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Lenovo Group Ltd Adr (LNVGY US)

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief

Credit markets were stable yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over at 261 bps. European bourses rose 0.1-1.2%. In the US, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq...

Lucror Analytics

PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year

Consumer demand is slow, but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. 2Q25 sees highest YoY growth for Apple, Asus, and Lenovo. Enterprise growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Lenovo - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lenovo is the largest PC maker globally, with a c. 25% market share. It is also a major mobile-phone maker and Top 5 server manufacturer.

Lucror Analytics

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief

Credit markets were stable yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over at 261 bps. European bourses rose 0.1-1.2%. In the US, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq...

Lucror Analytics

PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year

​Consumer demand is slow, but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. 2Q25 sees highest YoY growth for Apple, Asus, and Lenovo. Enterprise growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Lenovo - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lenovo is the largest PC maker globally, with a c. 25% market share. It is also a major mobile-phone maker and Top 5 server manufacturer.

Lucror Analytics

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Consumer demand is slow, but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. 2Q25 sees highest YoY growth for Apple, Asus, and Lenovo. Enterprise growth...

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...