Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.</li>
<li>Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.</li>
<li>Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). </li>
</ul>


In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.
Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.
Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). 


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. </li>
<li>No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.</li>
<li>In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. </li>
</ul>


IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. 
No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.
In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. 


3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

<ul>
<li>In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo</li>
<li>Credit markets widened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over increasing 8 bps to 304 bps.</li>
<li>European bourses declined 0.1-1.3%, except for the IBEX 35 (+1.0%). In the US, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo
Credit markets widened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over increasing 8 bps to 304 bps.
European bourses declined 0.1-1.3%, except for the IBEX 35 (+1.0%). In the US, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.


Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief: Lenovo (992 HK)

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday said that there is no need for the US central bank to rush rate cuts.</li>
<li>He said: "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," adding that "the strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully".</li>
<li>Following Mr Powell's comments, traders reduced their expectations for an interest-rate cut in December to 60% from 80% earlier. </li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday said that there is no need for the US central bank to rush rate cuts.
He said: "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," adding that "the strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully".
Following Mr Powell's comments, traders reduced their expectations for an interest-rate cut in December to 60% from 80% earlier. 


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

China

Lenovo Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, sells, and manufactures personal computers and handheld devices. The Company also provides Internet services and IT services, and contracting manufacturing business.

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Lenovo Group Ltd Adr (LNVGY US)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January. Overall, the index recorded a 0.9%...

Lucror Analytics

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief: Lenovo (992 HK)

In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: LenovoCredit markets widened on Friday,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday said that there is no need for the US central bank to rush rate cuts. He said: "The economy is not sending...

Lucror Analytics

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January. Overall, the index recorded a 0.9%...

Lucror Analytics

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief: Lenovo (992 HK)

In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: LenovoCredit markets widened on Friday,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday said that there is no need for the US central bank to rush rate cuts. He said: "The economy is not sending...

Lucror Analytics

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...