Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.</li>
<li>~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.</li>
<li>There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.</li>
</ul>


PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.


PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo</li>
<li>
<p>Credit markets widened yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over up 36 bps at 428 bps.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Equities were mixed, with European bourses sliding 2.2-4.2%, as the markets closed before US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs for all countries except China. </p>
</li>
</ul>


In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo

Credit markets widened yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over up 36 bps at 428 bps.


Equities were mixed, with European bourses sliding 2.2-4.2%, as the markets closed before US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs for all countries except China. 



<ul>
<li>In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.</li>
<li>Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.</li>
<li>Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). </li>
</ul>


In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.
Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.
Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). 


<ul>
<li>IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. </li>
<li>No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.</li>
<li>In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. </li>
</ul>


IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. 
No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.
In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. 


3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

<ul>
<li>In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo</li>
<li>Credit markets widened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over increasing 8 bps to 304 bps.</li>
<li>European bourses declined 0.1-1.3%, except for the IBEX 35 (+1.0%). In the US, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo
Credit markets widened on Friday, with the iTraxx X-Over increasing 8 bps to 304 bps.
European bourses declined 0.1-1.3%, except for the IBEX 35 (+1.0%). In the US, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.


Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief: Lenovo (992 HK)

China

Lenovo Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, sells, and manufactures personal computers and handheld devices. The Company also provides Internet services and IT services, and contracting manufacturing business.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lenovo Group Ltd Adr (LNVGY US)

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief

In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: LenovoCredit markets widened yesterday,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January. Overall, the index recorded a 0.9%...

Lucror Analytics

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief: Lenovo (992 HK)

In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: LenovoCredit markets widened on Friday,...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

​PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief

In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: LenovoCredit markets widened yesterday,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January. Overall, the index recorded a 0.9%...

Lucror Analytics

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief: Lenovo (992 HK)

In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: LenovoCredit markets widened on Friday,...

Lucror Analytics

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...