Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lawson’s Q3 OP of ¥16.2bn was around 20% above consensus suggesting that the company’s profitability is starting to outperform after being held back by upfront investments on store renovations.</li>
<li>Although this is the 3rd beat in a row, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>’s guidance has remained unchanged and the consensus OP only saw a marginal improvement.</li>
<li>After ignoring for so long, we think investors could soon start noticing Lawson’s growth prospects in China as the business there is starting to turn profitable.</li>
</ul>


Lawson’s Q3 OP of ¥16.2bn was around 20% above consensus suggesting that the company’s profitability is starting to outperform after being held back by upfront investments on store renovations.
Although this is the 3rd beat in a row, Lawson Inc (2651 JP)’s guidance has remained unchanged and the consensus OP only saw a marginal improvement.
After ignoring for so long, we think investors could soon start noticing Lawson’s growth prospects in China as the business there is starting to turn profitable.


Lawson: Underappreciated China Expansion & Expanding Domestic Profitability Warrants an Upside

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Lawson introduced a new store format in Tokyo last month called Green Lawson, touting new ways to save energy and reduce waste. </li>
<li>The new store also features an early version of a retail advertising system that emulates Familymart Vision.</li>
<li>The latest updates emphasise the continued investment by the big three convenience stores to remain relevant and improve sales efficiency while also countering the labour shortage.</li>
</ul>


Lawson introduced a new store format in Tokyo last month called Green Lawson, touting new ways to save energy and reduce waste. 
The new store also features an early version of a retail advertising system that emulates Familymart Vision.
The latest updates emphasise the continued investment by the big three convenience stores to remain relevant and improve sales efficiency while also countering the labour shortage.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs</li>
<li>On the IPO front,  things are started to cool down in to the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year end.</li>
<li>On placements front, most of the action was in India with Australia seeing a large offering after a while.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs
On the IPO front,  things are started to cool down in to the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year end.
On placements front, most of the action was in India with Australia seeing a large offering after a while.


ECM Weekly (18th Dec 2022) - China ADRs, Skymark, Daiei, Weilong, KFintech, Sula, Endeavour, Adani

<ul>
<li>With three food deliveries a day, convenience stores need to optimise stocks to sell unsold items, most of which have only been on shelves for a few hours.</li>
<li>Most chains deal with this problem manually by offloading the burden of optimal ordering and the cost of unsold stock onto franchisees,</li>
<li>Lawson has a new AI system that can automatically apply markdowns on any item without the need for skilled labour in the store. Gross margins rose 1% in test stores.</li>
</ul>


With three food deliveries a day, convenience stores need to optimise stocks to sell unsold items, most of which have only been on shelves for a few hours.
Most chains deal with this problem manually by offloading the burden of optimal ordering and the cost of unsold stock onto franchisees,
Lawson has a new AI system that can automatically apply markdowns on any item without the need for skilled labour in the store. Gross margins rose 1% in test stores.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With convenience stores at saturation, the question is how the big 3 chains, Seven Eleven, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> and Familymart can grow.</li>
<li>Their long-standing reputation for innovation is deserved and they continue to adjust quickly to new realities, including during Covid. </li>
<li>They are also now creating new events, hybrid stores and even advertising revenue streams. The following is a review of the key strategies of the big 3 chains.</li>
</ul>


With convenience stores at saturation, the question is how the big 3 chains, Seven Eleven, Lawson Inc (2651 JP) and Familymart can grow.
Their long-standing reputation for innovation is deserved and they continue to adjust quickly to new realities, including during Covid. 
They are also now creating new events, hybrid stores and even advertising revenue streams. The following is a review of the key strategies of the big 3 chains.


Japan's Big 3 Convenience Stores Try to Innovate Out of Saturation

Japan

LAWSON, INC. operates a chain of convenience stores in Japan. The Company sells a variety of products including fast food, beverages, snacks, magazines, newspapers, and sundry goods.

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Lawson Inc (2651 JP)

Lawson: Underappreciated China Expansion & Expanding Domestic Profitability Warrants an Upside

Over the years, investors were highly appreciative of companies showing growth potential in China. However, Lawson was one of the very few...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Green Lawson: More Eco and Avatars

Lawson's latest ideas show the convenience store sector is not standing still but finding new ways to drive up same-store sales in the face of...

Michael Causton

ECM Weekly (18th Dec 2022) - China ADRs, Skymark, Daiei, Weilong, KFintech, Sula, Endeavour, Adani

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Lawson: More Efficiencies

The convenience store sector may be saturated but more efficiencies should lead to higher margins. Lawson is leading the way with a new AI-based...

Michael Causton

Japan's Big 3 Convenience Stores Try to Innovate Out of Saturation

The big 3 Japanese convenience stores are continuing to innovate in an effort to offset saturation and changing work patterns. They will remain...

Michael Causton

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