Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week In Event SPACE: Didi Chuxing, Sydney Airport, Weibo, Container Shipping, Macau Gaming

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a>'s has bounced off its all-time low NAV discount and implied stub back in March, and is now back to +2 STD levels. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Melco are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




Melco International Development (200 HK)'s has bounced off its all-time low NAV discount and implied stub back in March, and is now back to +2 STD levels. 




Preceding my comments on Melco are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: Lock In Profits As Melco's NAV Discount Narrows

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

Galaxy Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>The passage of Japan Integrated Casino Resort legislation in 2016 initially targeted the 2020 Olympics for launch of properties. Now, even 2027/29 is earliest feasible debut.</li>
<li>The projected US$25b Japan marker would have cannibalized existing Macau revenues considering that pre-pandemic, Japan welcomed 9.5m Chinese tourists--without casinos.</li>
<li>Macau operators have an ongoingUS$8.5b investment in expansion there. A possible opening of Japan in the originally envisioned years is no longer operative.</li>
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The passage of Japan Integrated Casino Resort legislation in 2016 initially targeted the 2020 Olympics for launch of properties. Now, even 2027/29 is earliest feasible debut.
The projected US$25b Japan marker would have cannibalized existing Macau revenues considering that pre-pandemic, Japan welcomed 9.5m Chinese tourists--without casinos.
Macau operators have an ongoingUS$8.5b investment in expansion there. A possible opening of Japan in the originally envisioned years is no longer operative.


Interminable Delays in Japan Casinos Have Reduced Cannibalization Threat to Macau's Long Term Growth

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<li>Bearish outlooks for the stock in too much financial reporting constitute old wine in new bottles and do not in our view, reflect growing forward value.</li>
<li>Our informal survey of 38 opinions on the stock in the financial press over the past year, reveal a persistent clinging to risks that have considerably been diminished since.</li>
<li>LVS forward prospects are led by steady recovery in Macau and Singapore, the opening of Phase One of its Macau Londoner re-vamp, its recent sale of its Las Vegas assets for US$6.2b. It's superior business model focused on mass vs. VIP promises quicker recovery.</li>
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Bearish outlooks for the stock in too much financial reporting constitute old wine in new bottles and do not in our view, reflect growing forward value.
Our informal survey of 38 opinions on the stock in the financial press over the past year, reveal a persistent clinging to risks that have considerably been diminished since.
LVS forward prospects are led by steady recovery in Macau and Singapore, the opening of Phase One of its Macau Londoner re-vamp, its recent sale of its Las Vegas assets for US$6.2b. It's superior business model focused on mass vs. VIP promises quicker recovery.


Asia Facing Las Vegas Sands Remains Undervalued for the Wrong Reasons. Bullish Signs Are Increasing.

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<li>The US$6.2b sale of LVS Las Vegas assets adds to an already strong balance sheet that as of December 2020 showed cash on hand of $2.2b affording a comfortable cushion through the entire span of the pandemic.</li>
<li>We've posited a group of theoretical moves that include acquisitions, mergers, expansions of existing Asia assets, and adding verticals like sports betting.</li>
<li>The pandemic recovery will be fueled by slowly eased travel restrictions and a strong China economy in the next five quarters.</li>
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The US$6.2b sale of LVS Las Vegas assets adds to an already strong balance sheet that as of December 2020 showed cash on hand of $2.2b affording a comfortable cushion through the entire span of the pandemic.
We've posited a group of theoretical moves that include acquisitions, mergers, expansions of existing Asia assets, and adding verticals like sports betting.
The pandemic recovery will be fueled by slowly eased travel restrictions and a strong China economy in the next five quarters.


Las Vegas Sands: US Exit Creates Bullish Scenario for Asia Expansion Market Has yet to Recognize

United States

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Didi Chuxing, Sydney Airport, Weibo, Container Shipping, Macau Gaming

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Lock In Profits As Melco's NAV Discount Narrows

If you had set-up Melco - Long Melco and Short MLCO - I'd unwind that trade. I'd be inclined to reverse the stub here - Short Melco and Long MLCO.

David Blennerhassett

Interminable Delays in Japan Casinos Have Reduced Cannibalization Threat to Macau's Long Term Growth

The continuing delay in Japan casinos gives Macau operators a much longer competition free runway post pandemic through almost a decade ahead. This...

Howard J Klein

Asia Facing Las Vegas Sands Remains Undervalued for the Wrong Reasons. Bullish Signs Are Increasing.

Negative risk elements in financial reporting on LVS shares have hidden the many reasons why the stock remains a strong value buy at $62. Our PT is...

Howard J Klein

Las Vegas Sands: US Exit Creates Bullish Scenario for Asia Expansion Market Has yet to Recognize

The sale of LVS US assets for $6.2b provides massive proceeds for expansion along a fast scale post pandemic scenario for Macau and Singapore not...

Howard J Klein

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