External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity remained muted</li><li>FY24 was a truncated year for ordering with ~INR 330bn worth of project awards (vs average INR 1.2trn for the previous year)</li><li>NHAI is re-modelling the award mix towards BOT toll with INR 2trn worth of projects being envisaged to be bid out under this model, which seems to be a tall ask</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity remained mutedFY24 was a truncated year for ordering with ~INR 330bn worth of project awards (vs average INR 1.2trn for the previous year)NHAI is re-modelling the award mix towards BOT toll with INR 2trn worth of projects being envisaged to be bid out under this model, which seems to be a tall askContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Strong Ordering Ex-Roads

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>WisdomTree has dropped ESG considerations while selecting stocks for the EMXSOE, CHXSOE and WTEMXC indices.</li>
<li>That results in a lot of inclusions and fewer deletions across indices that will be implemented at the close on 15 March.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across the indices will exceed US$500m with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> as the largest buy.</li>
</ul>


WisdomTree has dropped ESG considerations while selecting stocks for the EMXSOE, CHXSOE and WTEMXC indices.
That results in a lot of inclusions and fewer deletions across indices that will be implemented at the close on 15 March.
The round-trip trade across the indices will exceed US$500m with Tencent (700 HK) as the largest buy.


WisdomTree Indexes Special Rebalance: ESG Considerations Dropped

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be multiple changes for NIFTY 50 and separately, there could be five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.
There could be multiple changes for NIFTY 50 and separately, there could be five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Trade Successful; Change Hedge and Let It Run

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

India

Larsen & Toubro Ltd manufactures engineering equipment, undertakes large scale engineering projects, and acts as the Indian representative for a number of overseas manufacturers of heavy machinery. The Company's products include bulldozers, road rollers, dairy machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical plants, switchgears, food processing machinery and feed milling plants.

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Larsen & Toubro (LTOD LI)

Industrials (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Strong Ordering Ex-Roads

NHAI’s FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect pick-up from H2FY25: With minimal awarding activity in Q4FY24, the overall FY24 awarding activity...

HDFC Securities

WisdomTree Indexes Special Rebalance: ESG Considerations Dropped

WisdomTree has dropped ESG considerations while selecting stocks for the EMXSOE, CHXSOE and WTEMXC indices. The round-trip trade will be over...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Trade Successful; Change Hedge and Let It Run

The reference period for the NIFTY 50 & NIFTY Next 50 March 2024 rebalance ends on 31st January 2024. There are no changes to my index changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

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