'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/735/original/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?1600826665" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160735"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/6h3m1giwbtzcupg/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PEAK OUTLIER</a> - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/736/original/2020-09-23_11-11-07.png?1600827080" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160736"></figure>
</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the Healthcare and FB&amp;T market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the Energy, Banks, Multi-Industry ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP))</a>  and Utilities Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/741/original/2020-09-23_11-39-24.png?1600828791" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160741"></figure>In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.<div class="content-highlight">RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</div>


• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
PEAK OUTLIER - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  

SECTOR TIMELINE - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the Healthcare and FB&amp;T market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the Energy, Banks, Multi-Industry ( Japan Post (6178 JP))  and Utilities Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

Friday saw the announcement of a large offering by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> shares. 
The dynamics of the offering itself - its internal flow dynamics (who buys? why? when? and who else buys later?) - were discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/softbank-corp-9434-bigger-block-offering" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42689" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434) BIGGER Block Offering</a>. This came a day after it was announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a> would sell nearly ¥400bn in an IPO to be launched in September 2020, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kioxia-ipo-the-flow-dynamics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42648" rel="noopener">Kioxia IPO - The Flow Dynamics</a>. 
What is not discussed is the significantly large funding trade which has to come.
There is  ¥1.47trln of Softbank Corp shares to be bought at last trade, and if the stock falls to its March low and trades at a 3% discount from there, there is still near ¥1.35trln of stock to buy. There is another ¥378bn of Kioxia to buy at the indicative IPO price. All together it is probably ¥1.7trln of stock to buy. 
That's enough money that it comes from savings rather than sofa cushions and while it is enticing to think that Japan's savers will pull $15bn from bank deposits earning 0.001% a year, what usually needs to happen is investors pull money from shares where they have a profit, and sell those to buy the next new thing.
So Japan's retail savers will have to cough up nearly ¥1.2trln for those two deals, and foreign institutional investors will have to fork over ¥600bn. 
For foreigners, that is less than 0.5% of all Japanese stock held. For retail holders, it is about 1.3% of what they hold. It is big enough to matter. 
So the question is what will they sell and what are trades we can do around that?

Friday saw the announcement of a large offering by Softbank Group (9984 JP) of Softbank Corp (9434 JP) shares. 
The dynamics of the offering itself - its internal flow dynamics (who buys? why? when? and who else buys later?) - were discussed in Softbank Corp (9434) BIGGER Block Offering. This came a day after it was announced that Kioxia (6600 JP) would sell nearly ¥400bn in an IPO to be launched in September 2020, discussed in Kioxia IPO - The Flow Dynamics. 
What is not discussed is the significantly large funding trade which has to come.
There is  ¥1.47trln of Softbank Corp shares to be bought at last trade, and if the stock falls to its March low and trades at a 3% discount from there, there is still near ¥1.35trln of stock to buy. There is another ¥378bn of Kioxia to buy at the indicative IPO price. All together it is probably ¥1.7trln of stock to buy. 
That's enough money that it comes from savings rather than sofa cushions and while it is enticing to think that Japan's savers will pull $15bn from bank deposits earning 0.001% a year, what usually needs to happen is investors pull money from shares where they have a profit, and sell those to buy the next new thing.
So Japan's retail savers will have to cough up nearly ¥1.2trln for those two deals, and foreign institutional investors will have to fork over ¥600bn. 
For foreigners, that is less than 0.5% of all Japanese stock held. For retail holders, it is about 1.3% of what they hold. It is big enough to matter. 
So the question is what will they sell and what are trades we can do around that?

Softbank & Kioxia "Replacement Trades" Iffy. Buy NTT Vs Docomo Instead

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

All Inspire Development PCL / Equity Bottom-Up

We have a BUY recommendation on ALL based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 31% from the current price. We derive our target price from a 20% discount to the PE ratio of Asia ex Japan Real Estate and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:
<ul>
<li>Recent investment in shopping mall diversifies revenue stream</li>
<li>Partnership with Japanese firms as a gateway to efficient residential development</li>
<li>Pipeline residential projects ensure constant near-term growth</li>
</ul>
Interim: Although the real estate sector is severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, ALL has delivered strong results. The high backlog of projects and demand recovery for residential projects should unlock further upside potential.
Risks: Increased competition and slowdown in demand for residences, rising land and construction costs, delayed construction and transfer of projects, access to capital.

We have a BUY recommendation on ALL based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 31% from the current price. We derive our target price from a 20% discount to the PE ratio of Asia ex Japan Real Estate and apply a 15% small-cap discount.
Investment thesis:

Recent investment in shopping mall diversifies revenue stream
Partnership with Japanese firms as a gateway to efficient residential development
Pipeline residential projects ensure constant near-term growth

Interim: Although the real estate sector is severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, ALL has delivered strong results. The high backlog of projects and demand recovery for residential projects should unlock further upside potential.
Risks: Increased competition and slowdown in demand for residences, rising land and construction costs, delayed construction and transfer of projects, access to capital.

ALL: Valuation Remains Undemanding, Expect Further Upside

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyushu-railway-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23609:1" rel="noopener">Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP)</a> AGM on June 23, the stock has declined by 24%. To put that in perspective the more operationally challenged Japan Airlines stock price has declined by just 14%. Both companies face similar challenges from Covid-19 and concerns over the pace of any recovery. In the ‘peak virus’ quarter ended June, JAL recorded a 78% collapse in revenue and a negative 172% EBIT margin, while Kyushu Rail reported a 38% revenue decline and a mere negative 80% EBIT margin. 
So why did Kyushu Railway underperform?

Since Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP) AGM on June 23, the stock has declined by 24%. To put that in perspective the more operationally challenged Japan Airlines stock price has declined by just 14%. Both companies face similar challenges from Covid-19 and concerns over the pace of any recovery. In the ‘peak virus’ quarter ended June, JAL recorded a 78% collapse in revenue and a negative 172% EBIT margin, while Kyushu Rail reported a 38% revenue decline and a mere negative 80% EBIT margin. 
So why did Kyushu Railway underperform? 

We initiate coverage on ALL with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 25% from the current price. We derive our target price from a 20% discount to the PE ratio of Asia ex Japan Real Estate, and apply a 15% small-cap discount.Investment thesis:<ul>
<li>Recent investment in shopping mall diversifies revenue stream</li>
<li>Partnership with Japanese firms as a gateway to efficient residential development</li>
<li>Pipeline residential projects ensure constant near-term growth</li>
</ul>Risks: Increased competition and slowdown in demand for residences, rising land and construction costs, delayed construction and transfer of projects, access to capital.

We initiate coverage on ALL with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 25% from the current price. We derive our target price from a 20% discount to the PE ratio of Asia ex Japan Real Estate, and apply a 15% small-cap discount.Investment thesis:
Recent investment in shopping mall diversifies revenue stream
Partnership with Japanese firms as a gateway to efficient residential development
Pipeline residential projects ensure constant near-term growth
Risks: Increased competition and slowdown in demand for residences, rising land and construction costs, delayed construction and transfer of projects, access to capital.

ALL: Undemanding Valuation and Good Growth Prospects in Shunned Sector

Japan

Kyushu Railway Company, doing business as JR Kyushu, offers transportation services. The Company provides passenger and railway freight services, as well as route, ticket, and time table information. JR Kyushu serves customers in Japan.

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Kyushu Railway (9142 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX...

Campbell Gunn

Softbank & Kioxia "Replacement Trades" Iffy. Buy NTT Vs Docomo Instead

Friday saw the announcement of a large offering by Softbank Group (9984 JP) of Softbank Corp (9434 JP) shares. The dynamics of the offering itself...

Travis Lundy

ALL: Valuation Remains Undemanding, Expect Further Upside

We have a BUY recommendation on ALL based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 31% from the current price. We derive our target price...

A. Stotz Investment Research

JR Kyushu (9142) - Riding Out the Storm

Since Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP) AGM on June 23, the stock has declined by 24%. To put that in perspective the more operationally challenged...

Mark Chadwick

ALL: Undemanding Valuation and Good Growth Prospects in Shunned Sector

We initiate coverage on ALL with a BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt4.39, implying an upside of 25% from the current price. We...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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