Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>Last week the portfolio bounced back, erasing the previous week's losses. Southbound continues to see net inflows and this week all H/A Pair sectors saw Hs outperform except Energy.</li>
<li>High-Div SOEs continue to be weak. Banks, Pharma, Industrials, and Utilities spreads continue to be Very Volatile. Quiddity Favourite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> up 7% after Q3 results Friday.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Last week the portfolio bounced back, erasing the previous week's losses. Southbound continues to see net inflows and this week all H/A Pair sectors saw Hs outperform except Energy.
High-Div SOEs continue to be weak. Banks, Pharma, Industrials, and Utilities spreads continue to be Very Volatile. Quiddity Favourite Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) up 7% after Q3 results Friday.


Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct27): Volatility Off, Spreads Still Volatile. GreatWall Q3!

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are dropping.</li>
<li>Overall net NORTHBOUND selling this week was small at RMB 445mm. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foxconn-industrial-internet-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27163:1" rel="noopener">Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH)</a> was net bought every day despite the investigation news the previous weekend.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are dropping.
Overall net NORTHBOUND selling this week was small at RMB 445mm. Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH) was net bought every day despite the investigation news the previous weekend.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 27Oct23): Net Selling Small, Foxconn & Tianqi Bought

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 27th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$50.4 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by materials, utilities, communication services.</li>
<li>We have highlighted northbound flows for Moutai, CATL and Midea.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 27th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$50.4 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by materials, utilities, communication services.
We have highlighted northbound flows for Moutai, CATL and Midea.


Northbound Flows (Oct 27th): Moutai, CATL, Midea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q net profit grew 16.0% YoY to RMB16.9bn. The growth momentum sequentially decelerated from 20.8% in 1H, as revenue of the quarter slowed in tandem to 13.1% from 19.4% in 1H.</li><li>The 17% 9M revenue growth still largely tracks to consensus estimates; however, an unchanged 15% full year revenue growth guidance could imply 4Q revenue growth to dip further to HSD%, the lowest we note since 3Q20.</li><li>In fact, the trend looks to go hand-in-hand with distributors’ reluctance to restock after the Golden Week Holiday, when consumers have been increasingly trading down, and when sentiment to consume has been languishing. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q net profit grew 16.0% YoY to RMB16.9bn. The growth momentum sequentially decelerated from 20.8% in 1H, as revenue of the quarter slowed in tandem to 13.1% from 19.4% in 1H.The 17% 9M revenue growth still largely tracks to consensus estimates; however, an unchanged 15% full year revenue growth guidance could imply 4Q revenue growth to dip further to HSD%, the lowest we note since 3Q20.In fact, the trend looks to go hand-in-hand with distributors’ reluctance to restock after the Golden Week Holiday, when consumers have been increasingly trading down, and when sentiment to consume has been languishing. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) – 3Q Rev/Np +13%/16%; Mixed Near-Term Outlook

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The performance/spread/flow data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and 4 weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected/charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).</li>
<li>Please play with nifty interactive tables+charts. We welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw RMB 24bn+ of net selling. Back to Bigly Selling!</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The performance/spread/flow data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and 4 weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected/charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
Please play with nifty interactive tables+charts. We welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw RMB 24bn+ of net selling. Back to Bigly Selling!


Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 2023): BYD/Changan IN But BIGLY Net Selling

China

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. manufactures spirits.  The Company's spirit products are distilled from sorghum and wheat.  Kweichow Moutai markets its products worldwide.

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Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct27): Volatility Off, Spreads Still Volatile. GreatWall Q3!

The Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor is out late because, well it just is. Sorry folks. Still valid. No new trades this week. Spreads still volatile....

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 27Oct23): Net Selling Small, Foxconn & Tianqi Bought

NORTHBOUND flows this past week were still a net sell, but small. There hasn't been a net buy week since early August. Foxconn saw buying every...

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Oct 27th): Moutai, CATL, Midea

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and we highlight flows for Moutai, CATL and Midea.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM