Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 9.9bn of A-shares on very strong average activity after +12.1bn RMB the week before. Some National Team buying this week. </li>
<li>Renewables selling was tempered. Energy and Finance saw net selling. Industry and Tech saw large net buying. Relatively larger net Shenzhen buying later in the week as stocks fell hard.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 9.9bn of A-shares on very strong average activity after +12.1bn RMB the week before. Some National Team buying this week. 
Renewables selling was tempered. Energy and Finance saw net selling. Industry and Tech saw large net buying. Relatively larger net Shenzhen buying later in the week as stocks fell hard.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Feb 2024): Decent Net Buying, But Reversionary Net Flows

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. </li>
<li>Renewables and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> were the big net sells on the week.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. 
Renewables and Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) were the big net sells on the week.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold

Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> announced the preliminary result for FY23, with sales and net profit both up 17% yoy. </li>
<li>The overall weak consumer sentiment in China has not spared the Chinese liquor sector, as overall Chinese liquor demand has been lukewarm. </li>
<li>The current valuation for Moutai has become very attractive, and even if no rerating, the return is likely to be around 15% through earnings growth plus 2% from dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) announced the preliminary result for FY23, with sales and net profit both up 17% yoy. 
The overall weak consumer sentiment in China has not spared the Chinese liquor sector, as overall Chinese liquor demand has been lukewarm. 
The current valuation for Moutai has become very attractive, and even if no rerating, the return is likely to be around 15% through earnings growth plus 2% from dividend yield.


Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH):  Stability Amidst Overall Industry Weakness

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

China

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. manufactures spirits.  The Company's spirit products are distilled from sorghum and wheat.  Kweichow Moutai markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Feb 2024): Decent Net Buying, But Reversionary Net Flows

NORTHBOUND Connect saw net buying for the second week in a row. +9.9bn RMB vs last week's +12.1bn RMB. Big news in a Very Down Week ahead of...

Travis Lundy