Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average by 70+bp. Liquid HK H/A Pairs saw H/As -66bp. H/A Pair intracorrelation is down but it feels like liquidation.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were buys, and sells, respectively, but Hs have had two bad weeks in a row, and high premia A/H pairs have seen premia rise significantly.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average by 70+bp. Liquid HK H/A Pairs saw H/As -66bp. H/A Pair intracorrelation is down but it feels like liquidation.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were buys, and sells, respectively, but Hs have had two bad weeks in a row, and high premia A/H pairs have seen premia rise significantly.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, Again, Despite SOUTHBOUND Buying; Pharmas Weak

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 5.8bn of A-sharesin higher-than-normal activity.</li>
<li>Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start).</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 5.8bn of A-sharesin higher-than-normal activity.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start).


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Dec 23): Net Sales Again on Midea and Wuliangye Yibin

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 8th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$753.7 million, led by financials, consumer discretionary, and offset by information technology, materials, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Will Semiconductor Co., Ltd. Shanghai, Wuxi Apptec, Tianqi Lithium, Wuliangye, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Hygon Information Technology, Midea.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 8th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$753.7 million, led by financials, consumer discretionary, and offset by information technology, materials, health care.
We highlight flows for Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Will Semiconductor Co., Ltd. Shanghai, Wuxi Apptec, Tianqi Lithium, Wuliangye, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Hygon Information Technology, Midea.


Northbound Flows (Dec 8th): Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Will Semiconductor, Shanghai, Wuxi Apptec

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)</a>'s proposal suggests more upside to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>'s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>It's all over for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> folds it tent. </li>
<li>Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a> has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook &amp; Co.</li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)'s proposal suggests more upside to Benefit One (2412 JP)'s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona Group (2168 JP).
It's all over for EOFlow (294090 KS), as Medtronic Plc (MDT US) folds it tent. 
Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS) has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook &amp; Co.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Hygon Information Technology C / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Local indices in China including the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> will rebalance at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>There are many changes for the indices and there are stocks that are adds and/or deletes from multiple indices which results in cumulative or offsetting flows.</li>
<li>We estimate turnover at the close tomorrow in China will be around US$7.5bn with big impact on a lot of stocks.</li>
</ul>


Local indices in China including the CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, STAR50 Index and SSE50 Index will rebalance at the close tomorrow.
There are many changes for the indices and there are stocks that are adds and/or deletes from multiple indices which results in cumulative or offsetting flows.
We estimate turnover at the close tomorrow in China will be around US$7.5bn with big impact on a lot of stocks.


China: Consolidated Flows at the Close Tomorrow

China

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. manufactures spirits.  The Company's spirit products are distilled from sorghum and wheat.  Kweichow Moutai markets its products worldwide.

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Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, Again, Despite SOUTHBOUND Buying; Pharmas Weak

Hs in H/A Pairs have underperformed their As by nearly 3% in two weeks despite SOUTHBOUND buying. This week sectors were mixed (last week every one...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Dec 23): Net Sales Again on Midea and Wuliangye Yibin

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND flows were negative again. RMB 5.8bn to sell this week. This is a strong trend. This week saw reversionary flows on a...

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Dec 8th): Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Will Semiconductor, Shanghai, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Will Semiconductor Co.,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

China: Consolidated Flows at the Close Tomorrow

Local indices in China rebalance tomorrow and we estimate passives will need to trade around CNY 54bn (US$7.5bn). There will be big impact on some...

Brian Freitas

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