Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 6 May, Kumho Petrochem announced a significant shares cancellation program which is likely to have a positive impact on its share price. </li>
<li>The company announced that it will cancel 430 billion won worth of its common shares in the next three years, representing nearly 10.5% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Park Chul Wan, nephew of Kumho Petrochem Chairman Park Chan Koo, has been very vocal about the need for Kumho Petrochem to improve its corporate governance in past several years.</li>
</ul>


After the market close on 6 May, Kumho Petrochem announced a significant shares cancellation program which is likely to have a positive impact on its share price. 
The company announced that it will cancel 430 billion won worth of its common shares in the next three years, representing nearly 10.5% of its market cap.
Park Chul Wan, nephew of Kumho Petrochem Chairman Park Chan Koo, has been very vocal about the need for Kumho Petrochem to improve its corporate governance in past several years.


Kumho Petrochemical - A Significant Shares Cancellation Announcement

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Kumho Petro Chemical (011780 KS) intends to retire 50% of its common shares, totaling 2,624,417 shares, starting from the 2024 fiscal year until the 2026 fiscal year.</li>
<li>With the annual general meeting nearing, NPS hasn't revealed its support, causing unease for Park Chan-gu. Considering NPS's obligation to the Value-Up policy, cancellation seems inevitable for Park Chan-gu.</li>
<li>Whether the battle persists hinges on NPS's stance. If NPS backs Park Chan-gu, their stake surpassing 25% could deter the opposition's financial strength. Conversely, NPS's neutrality could escalate the battle.</li>
</ul>


Kumho Petro Chemical (011780 KS) intends to retire 50% of its common shares, totaling 2,624,417 shares, starting from the 2024 fiscal year until the 2026 fiscal year.
With the annual general meeting nearing, NPS hasn't revealed its support, causing unease for Park Chan-gu. Considering NPS's obligation to the Value-Up policy, cancellation seems inevitable for Park Chan-gu.
Whether the battle persists hinges on NPS's stance. If NPS backs Park Chan-gu, their stake surpassing 25% could deter the opposition's financial strength. Conversely, NPS's neutrality could escalate the battle.


Interpreting Kumho Petro Chemical's Unexpected Move to Cancel Treasury Shares

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.</li>
<li>Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.
There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.
Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.


Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.</li>
<li>A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.


KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations

<ul>
<li>This event drew significant attention, causing unusual price action. From Sept 20 to Nov 29, corrections in the deletions far outpaced the KOSPI, with the trend holding across key checkpoints.</li>
<li>We’re watching 4 stocks: Kumho Petro, Lotte Chemical, Posco DX, and EcoPro Materials. SK Bioscience and Enchem are close, with small price moves likely pushing them out.</li>
<li>Based on past rebalancing patterns, proactive positions on these names could trigger strong price action. All except Enchem have listed futures and solid volume, making trading conditions favorable.</li>
</ul>


This event drew significant attention, causing unusual price action. From Sept 20 to Nov 29, corrections in the deletions far outpaced the KOSPI, with the trend holding across key checkpoints.
We’re watching 4 stocks: Kumho Petro, Lotte Chemical, Posco DX, and EcoPro Materials. SK Bioscience and Enchem are close, with small price moves likely pushing them out.
Based on past rebalancing patterns, proactive positions on these names could trigger strong price action. All except Enchem have listed futures and solid volume, making trading conditions favorable.


A Passive Flow Trading Event that Sparked Wild Price Action in Korea Is Happening Again

South Korea

Kumho Petrochemical Co., Ltd. manufactures synthetic rubbers, synthetic resins, and rubber chemicals.  The Company's products include styrene butadiene, acrylonitrile butadiene, polystyrene, expandable polystyrene, and antioxidant.  Kumho Petrochemical provides construction, transportation, and financial services through its subsidiaries.

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Kumho Petro Chemical (011780 KS)

Kumho Petrochemical - A Significant Shares Cancellation Announcement

Kumho Petrochem announced announced that it will cancel 430 billion won worth of its common shares in the next three years, representing nearly...

Douglas Kim

Interpreting Kumho Petro Chemical's Unexpected Move to Cancel Treasury Shares

This post analyzes Kumho Petro Chemical's surprising decision to cancel half of its treasury shares prior to the general meeting.

Sanghyun Park

Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

There could be 10 deletes from global passive portfolios in Feb. Trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations

There could be 37 migrations for the KOSPI Size indices in March, plus 1 LargeCap and 3 MidCap inclusions. The MidCap to LargeCap migrations have...

Brian Freitas

A Passive Flow Trading Event that Sparked Wild Price Action in Korea Is Happening Again

A passive flow trading event that sparked some wild price action in Korea is happening again: the Global Index February rebalancing.

Sanghyun Park

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