Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. </p><ul>
<li>Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  </li>
<li>The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24142:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otp-bank-nyrt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28806:1" rel="noopener">OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB)</a> with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcs-group-holding-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28148:1" rel="noopener">TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitec-bank-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27628:1" rel="noopener">Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ)</a> saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  </li>
<li>With active ownership declining throughout 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a> has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).</li>
</ul><p>The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.</p><p><em>Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn</em></p>

The last decade has seen EMEA allocations in active GEM portfolios drift ever lower, with Asia becoming the dominant weight.  However, the recent rhetoric from China has seen Asian allocations fall from their peak and EMEA allocations rally from their lows.  Average weights in EMEA stocks stand at 13.72%, marginally overweight the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.24%, with just under half of the active managers in our analysis overweight. 
Over the course of the last decade, exposure to each EMEA sector has either fallen dramatically or at best stayed largely unchanged.  Those that have seen a big decline in investment are led by EMEA Industrials and Health Care, with over 40% of investors closing exposure.  
The largest sector exposure, EMEA Financials allocations sit towards the lower-end of their historical range.  Top holdings are Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI) and OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP HB) with 59% and 31% of funds invested respectively.  TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS LI) and Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (CPI SJ) saw ownership levels increase the most over the last 6-months.
Consumer Discretionary weights hit another all-time high this month of 1.46%, representing a 1.04% overweight versus the iShares MSCI EM ETF.  Underpinning the overweight are out-of-benchmark holdings in Prosus (PRX NA) and Fix Price Group, though in general stocks in the sector are not widely held.  Funds with big overweights are led by Comgest's GEM Promising Companies Fund (8.98%) and Van Eck's Emerging Markets Fund (7.21%).  
With active ownership declining throughout 2020, Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX) has finally been the recipient of some inflows.  Over the last 6-months, 2% of funds added Gazprom to their portfolios with a combined $217m in inflows.  Leading those were Fidelity (2.7%), Virtus Allianz (2.67%) and JP Morgan ($64m).
The analysis looks in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks that underpin investment in the region.Analysis taken from our GEM fund research, covering 250 active GEM strategies with combined AUM of $500bn

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive.  Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The Steel industry group is building momentum.  The turnaround started in April of last year after a severe drop post the early stage of COVID, but it is far from reaching even the previous highs of late 2018.  Only 55% of the funds in our analysis hold exposure to the Steel industry, 10% lower than in December 2018 and some 40% lower than early 2008.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa-7721577f-6c6a-4536-a829-92551c2bcd7f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27725:1" rel="noopener">Vale SA (VALE3 BZ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">Posco (005490 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumba-iron-ore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25094:1" rel="noopener">Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)</a> are the favoured stocks within the sector, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa-7721577f-6c6a-4536-a829-92551c2bcd7f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27725:1" rel="noopener">Vale SA (VALE3 BZ)</a> representing a good size underweight, on average.  All 3 stocks are still someway from previous peaks in ownership, so if this is a cycle similar to the one that lasted between early 2016 and late 2018, EM fund ownership has a lot further to run.</p>

The Steel industry group is building momentum.  The turnaround started in April of last year after a severe drop post the early stage of COVID, but it is far from reaching even the previous highs of late 2018.  Only 55% of the funds in our analysis hold exposure to the Steel industry, 10% lower than in December 2018 and some 40% lower than early 2008.Vale SA (VALE3 BZ) , Posco (005490 KS) and Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ) are the favoured stocks within the sector, with Vale SA (VALE3 BZ) representing a good size underweight, on average.  All 3 stocks are still someway from previous peaks in ownership, so if this is a cycle similar to the one that lasted between early 2016 and late 2018, EM fund ownership has a lot further to run.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018</li>
<li>This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures</li>
<li>Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore</li>
<li>More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer</li>
<li>Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked</li>
</ul><section><div id="ember4041"><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div></div></div></div></section>


TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018
This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures
Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore
More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer
Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>, an Australian pure-play iron ore producer, has returned nearly 130%, whilst LSE listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrexpo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24163:1" rel="noopener">Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN)</a> is trading 25% lower YTD. These stocks have diverged from the Iron ore prices which have increased by only 20% YTD.    </p><p>More details below.</p>

Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), an Australian pure-play iron ore producer, has returned nearly 130%, whilst LSE listed Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) is trading 25% lower YTD. These stocks have diverged from the Iron ore prices which have increased by only 20% YTD.    More details below.

Australian Material: FMG - Too Rich Compared to Its Peers?

South Africa

Kumba Iron Ore Limited mines for and produces iron ore.

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Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

EMEA Sectors Deep-Dive. Active Positioning in the EMEA Region

The last decade has seen EMEA weights drift ever lower. We look in detail at all sectors in the EMEA region, together with some of the key stocks...

Steven Holden

EM Steel: Gaining Strength

The Steel industry group is building momentum. The turnaround started in April of last year after a severe drop post COVID, but it is far from...

Steven Holden

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

TMI

Elan Gore

Australian Material: FMG - Too Rich Compared to Its Peers?

Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), an Australian pure-play iron ore producer, has returned nearly 130%, whilst LSE listed Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) is trading...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

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