China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kuaishou’s 4Q22 top line beat our est. by 3.9%, and non-IFRS net income was higher than our est. by 85% due to cost-saving measures.  </li>
<li>We raise forecasts for its ads and eCommerce growth due to on-track macro recovery. However, we are still concerned about the intensified competition from WeChat Video Account.</li>
<li>Maintain SELL for competition scenario, but slightly raise TP to HK$ 58 to reflect macro recovery. Our TP implies 2.1X PS/239X PE in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Kuaishou’s 4Q22 top line beat our est. by 3.9%, and non-IFRS net income was higher than our est. by 85% due to cost-saving measures.  
We raise forecasts for its ads and eCommerce growth due to on-track macro recovery. However, we are still concerned about the intensified competition from WeChat Video Account.
Maintain SELL for competition scenario, but slightly raise TP to HK$ 58 to reflect macro recovery. Our TP implies 2.1X PS/239X PE in 2023.


[Kuaishou (1024 HK) Target Price Change]: Video Account Continues to Be the Threat

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Baba: Baba management holds a call with investors to explain recent movements. </li>
<li>700HK/ 1024HK/ BILI/ BIDU：Wechat Open Class is held, more features are announced（+/-/-/-）</li>
<li>ATAT：Accor formed alliance with Douyin to further explore independent growth (+)</li>
</ul>


Baba: Baba management holds a call with investors to explain recent movements. 
700HK/ 1024HK/ BILI/ BIDU：Wechat Open Class is held, more features are announced（+/-/-/-）
ATAT：Accor formed alliance with Douyin to further explore independent growth (+)


China TMT Update(Mar.31) - Baba/ 700HK/1024HK/BILI/BIDU/ATAT: Baba Management's Call

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue increased 15.8% YoY to RMB28.3bn (vs consensus RMB27.3bn) while reported operating losses narrowed to RMB1.24bn (vs consensus RMB1.7bn).</li>
<li>We forecasted Kuaishou’s revenue to increase by about 11.2% in 4Q2022, however, strong performance of Livestreaming and Online ad helped achieve better-than-expected results.</li>
<li>Domestic Business' OPM improved further with expanding overseas revenues and we expect Kuaishou’s profitability to continue to improve.</li>
</ul>



Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue increased 15.8% YoY to RMB28.3bn (vs consensus RMB27.3bn) while reported operating losses narrowed to RMB1.24bn (vs consensus RMB1.7bn).
We forecasted Kuaishou’s revenue to increase by about 11.2% in 4Q2022, however, strong performance of Livestreaming and Online ad helped achieve better-than-expected results.
Domestic Business' OPM improved further with expanding overseas revenues and we expect Kuaishou’s profitability to continue to improve.


Kuaishou: Strong Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The short video company has been taking users and users’ time from other kinds of apps.</li>
<li>In 4Q22, operating loss shrank significantly and the growth rate of total revenue accelerated.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 77% and a price target of HK$99 for year end 2023.</li>
</ul>


The short video company has been taking users and users’ time from other kinds of apps.
In 4Q22, operating loss shrank significantly and the growth rate of total revenue accelerated.
We set an upside of 77% and a price target of HK$99 for year end 2023.


Kuaishou (1024 HK): Outstanding 2022 and Outstanding Q4

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 24th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate that the total inflows were USD3.3bn last week and highlight flows for Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 24th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate that the total inflows were USD3.3bn last week and highlight flows for Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 24th): Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

[Kuaishou (1024 HK) Target Price Change]: Video Account Continues to Be the Threat

We raise forecasts for its ads and eCommerce growth due to on-track macro recovery. However, we are still concerned about the intensified...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update(Mar.31) - Baba/ 700HK/1024HK/BILI/BIDU/ATAT: Baba Management's Call

700HK/1024HK/BILI/BIDU：Wechat Open Class is held; ATAT：Accor formed alliance with Douyin to further explore independent growth in China ; key...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Kuaishou: Strong Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Kuaishou's 4Q2022 earnings beat consensus estimates. Operating losses further reduced and domestic biz's OPM improved further. Kuaishou has...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kuaishou (1024 HK): Outstanding 2022 and Outstanding Q4

The short video company has been taking users and users’ time from other kinds of apps. In 4Q22, operating loss shrank significantly and the growth...

Ming Lu

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 24th): Meituan, Tencent, Bilibili

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent (700 HK), and Bilibili (9626 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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