Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Foreign room in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> increased above 15% in July and is currently just above 16%. Foreign investors have resumed buying again and foreign room is moving lower.</li>
<li>Foreign room staying above 15% for another month could result in passive buying at the end of November. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> has outperformed peers over the last few weeks.</li>
<li>Foreign buying over the next month could lead to foreign room dropping below 15% in which case there will be no passive inflows. But the stock could be higher.</li>
</ul>


Foreign room in SK Telecom (017670 KS) increased above 15% in July and is currently just above 16%. Foreign investors have resumed buying again and foreign room is moving lower.
Foreign room staying above 15% for another month could result in passive buying at the end of November. SK Telecom (017670 KS) has outperformed peers over the last few weeks.
Foreign buying over the next month could lead to foreign room dropping below 15% in which case there will be no passive inflows. But the stock could be higher.


SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Millie's Library is trying to complete its IPO again in September 2023, after a failed attempt in November 2022. The IPO price range is from 20,000 won to 23,000 won.</li>
<li>Founded in 2016, Millie's Library is a reading platform company that introduced the first monthly e-book subscription service in Korea in October 2017. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests base case target price of 31,769 won per share, which is 38% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 23,000 won.</li>
</ul>


Millie's Library is trying to complete its IPO again in September 2023, after a failed attempt in November 2022. The IPO price range is from 20,000 won to 23,000 won.
Founded in 2016, Millie's Library is a reading platform company that introduced the first monthly e-book subscription service in Korea in October 2017. 
Our valuation analysis suggests base case target price of 31,769 won per share, which is 38% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 23,000 won.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KT Corp (030200 KS)'s shares were up 4.1% today to 32,000 won driven by better than expected results in 2Q 2023 and the nomination of a new CEO. </li>
<li>KT has nominated Kim Young-Seop, the former CEO of LG CNS as the new CEO of the company.</li>
<li>KT Corp has attractive valuations. It is trading at only 2.6x EV/EBITDA, 6.7x P/E, and 0.5x P/B in 2023. These valuation multiples are much cheaper than SK Telecom.</li>
</ul>


KT Corp (030200 KS)'s shares were up 4.1% today to 32,000 won driven by better than expected results in 2Q 2023 and the nomination of a new CEO. 
KT has nominated Kim Young-Seop, the former CEO of LG CNS as the new CEO of the company.
KT Corp has attractive valuations. It is trading at only 2.6x EV/EBITDA, 6.7x P/E, and 0.5x P/B in 2023. These valuation multiples are much cheaper than SK Telecom.


KT Corp: A New CEO Nominated and Stronger Than Expected Results in 2Q 2023

<ul>
<li>Ecopro BM (247540 KS) and Kum Yang (001570 KS)'s shares are down 2.5% and 4.5%, respectively today, driven by news of insiders at these companies selling their shares.</li>
<li>It is estimated that the total amount of Ecopro BM shares sold by insiders and related parties was about 20 billion won in July by more than 12 insiders/related parties.</li>
<li>We are increasingly concerned about insiders selling at Ecopro BM and Kum Yang. Coupled with lofty valuations, we think there is a higher probability of downside risk on these names. </li>
</ul>


Ecopro BM (247540 KS) and Kum Yang (001570 KS)'s shares are down 2.5% and 4.5%, respectively today, driven by news of insiders at these companies selling their shares.
It is estimated that the total amount of Ecopro BM shares sold by insiders and related parties was about 20 billion won in July by more than 12 insiders/related parties.
We are increasingly concerned about insiders selling at Ecopro BM and Kum Yang. Coupled with lofty valuations, we think there is a higher probability of downside risk on these names. 


Insiders Selling at Ecopro BM and Kum Yang

<ul>
<li>Foreign investors have been selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> for over a year now. That has taken foreign room from near zero to close to 15% now.</li>
<li>That could mean index inclusion for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> with timing dependent on when the 15% foreign room threshold is crossed.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> has performed in line with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a> but trades at higher valuations on most parameters.</li>
</ul>


Foreign investors have been selling SK Telecom (017670 KS) for over a year now. That has taken foreign room from near zero to close to 15% now.
That could mean index inclusion for SK Telecom (017670 KS) with timing dependent on when the 15% foreign room threshold is crossed.

SK Telecom (017670 KS) has performed in line with KT Corp (030200 KS) but trades at higher valuations on most parameters.


SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room Increase Has Implications

South Korea

KT Corporation provides telecommunication services including local, long distance, and international calling, satellite communication, data transmission, and wireless telephone services in South Korea.  The Company also offers network portal and high-speed Internet access services using asymmetric digital subscriber lines (ADSLs).

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KT Corp (030200 KS)

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows

SK Telecom's foreign room is over 16% and the stock could see passive buying (and pre-positioning). Foreigners have resumed buying and the stock...

Brian Freitas

Millie's Library IPO Analysis

Millie's Library is trying to complete its IPO again in September 2023, after a failed attempt in November 2022. The company lowered the IPO price...

Douglas Kim

KT Corp: A New CEO Nominated and Stronger Than Expected Results in 2Q 2023

KT Corp (030200 KS)'s shares were up 4.1% today to 32,000 won driven by better than expected results in 2Q 2023 and the nomination of a new CEO.

Douglas Kim

Insiders Selling at Ecopro BM and Kum Yang

Ecopro BM (247540 KS) and Kum Yang (001570 KS)'s shares are down 2.5% and 4.5%, respectively today, driven by news of insiders at these companies...

Douglas Kim

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room Increase Has Implications

Foreign investors have sold SK Tel for over a year leading to foreign room moving from 0% to nearly 15%. Crossing the 15% threshold could lead to...

Brian Freitas

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