Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.</li>
<li>It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.</li>
<li>The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming</li>
</ul>


$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.
It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.
The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming


Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

Kulicke And Soffa Industries, / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. </li>
<li>Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Kulicke &amp; Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables</li>
</ul>


This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Kulicke &amp; Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables


Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Following up on our previous insight, our discussion with the company lead us to remain positive on the stock despite some valuation concerns.</p><ul>
<li>Within an industry where pressure to consolidate appears to be growing, we find Kansai Paint's relatively restrained approach to be the least risky. Our view is that cost-synergies are likely to be limited outside of the decorative paints market and are unlikely to be exceedingly large even there.</li>
<li>Buying brands and scale is not in and of itself a negative…</li>
</ul>

Following up on our previous insight, our discussion with the company lead us to remain positive on the stock despite some valuation concerns.
Within an industry where pressure to consolidate appears to be growing, we find Kansai Paint's relatively restrained approach to be the least risky. Our view is that cost-synergies are likely to be limited outside of the decorative paints market and are unlikely to be exceedingly large even there.
Buying brands and scale is not in and of itself a negative…


Kansai Paint: Emerging Markets Exposure, M&A and Gearing to a South African Recovery

United States

Kronos Worldwide, Inc. produces titanium dioxide pigments.  The Company's products are used to whiten, brighten, and add opacity to thousands of commonly used products, such as paints, plastics, inks, and cosmetics.

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Kronos Worldwide (KRO US)

Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

Still No Decisive Breakout as $SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; On watch for SPX bull trap/failed breakout, confirmed only on a break below 5670. 2007...

Vermilion Research

Breaking Estimates Short Candidates: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

This model discusses companies facing recent declines in estimates. This week we flag: Kulicke & Soffa, Kronos, Marvell Tech, Montauk Renewables

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Kansai Paint: Emerging Markets Exposure, M&A and Gearing to a South African Recovery

Following up on our previous insight, our discussion with the company lead us to remain positive on the stock despite some valuation...

Mio Kato

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