Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> nearing the end of their first 15 days of trading, they are a certainty to be included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance that coincides with the index futures expiry.</p><p>Post the changes at the June rebalance, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lock-lock-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4739:1" rel="noopener">Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jw-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18784:1" rel="noopener">Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS)</a> as the lowest ranked constituents and the stocks could be deleted at the September rebalance.</p><p>We expect the announcement of the changes on 1 September and the implementation at the close of trading on 9 September.</p><p>The impact from passive trading is not very high on the inclusions while the impact on the potential deletions is a lot higher. There is a bit of short interest on the potential deletions and some of that could be covered in the lead up to index deletion.</p><p>The dynamics of the index changes are pretty interesting. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> will be short-sell eligible from 10 September while the deletions will no longer be short-sell eligible. We suggest potential trading strategies to take advantage of these dynamics.</p>

With KakaoBank (323410 KS) and  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) nearing the end of their first 15 days of trading, they are a certainty to be included in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the September rebalance that coincides with the index futures expiry.Post the changes at the June rebalance, we see Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS) and Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS) as the lowest ranked constituents and the stocks could be deleted at the September rebalance.We expect the announcement of the changes on 1 September and the implementation at the close of trading on 9 September.The impact from passive trading is not very high on the inclusions while the impact on the potential deletions is a lot higher. There is a bit of short interest on the potential deletions and some of that could be covered in the lead up to index deletion.The dynamics of the index changes are pretty interesting. KakaoBank (323410 KS) and  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) will be short-sell eligible from 10 September while the deletions will no longer be short-sell eligible. We suggest potential trading strategies to take advantage of these dynamics.

KOSPI200 September Rebalance Preview: Double Edged Sword

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<p>In this insight, we review 27 of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2020 and 2021. We discuss the institutional investors demand ratio, lock-up ratios, market caps, IPO offering amounts, and share price performances in different time periods. We conclude that while we should continue to evaluate IPOs in Korea on a case-by-case basis, the overall bullish trend of IPOs has clearly been deteriorating in the past three months.</p><p>Among the 9 stocks that completed their IPOs in the past three months (June - August), their first day share price performance was an increase of 22% on average. In comparison, among the other 18 stocks that completed their IPOs from February 2020 to May 2021, their first day share price performance was an increase of 81.4% on average.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Among the three major criteria mentioned in this report, the most important is the lock-up ratios, followed by market cap, and then the institutional investors demand. Prudent investors may want to use a combination of these methods to pick the best performing IPOs in Korea.  </strong></p></div>

In this insight, we review 27 of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2020 and 2021. We discuss the institutional investors demand ratio, lock-up ratios, market caps, IPO offering amounts, and share price performances in different time periods. We conclude that while we should continue to evaluate IPOs in Korea on a case-by-case basis, the overall bullish trend of IPOs has clearly been deteriorating in the past three months.Among the 9 stocks that completed their IPOs in the past three months (June - August), their first day share price performance was an increase of 22% on average. In comparison, among the other 18 stocks that completed their IPOs from February 2020 to May 2021, their first day share price performance was an increase of 81.4% on average.Among the three major criteria mentioned in this report, the most important is the lock-up ratios, followed by market cap, and then the institutional investors demand. Prudent investors may want to use a combination of these methods to pick the best performing IPOs in Korea.  

A Comprehensive Review of 27 IPOs in Korea in 2020 and 2021

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>We believe that the sales and profit estimates for Krafton in 2022 is based on the company near-perfectly executing its business plans and also the regulators in China not enforcing any major new rules that could result in reduced playing time of the company's games in China.</p>
<p>As a result, we think that the probability of Krafton being able to reach the consensus sales and profit estimates in 2022 is likely to be reduced further in the coming months causing its stock price to remain relatively weak. We maintain our Negative view of Krafton.</p>
</div><h2>Krafton 2Q 2021 Earnings Comparison</h2><p>Krafton reported its first quarterly earnings report after its IPO in the past week. Krafton reported sales of 459.3 billion won (up 7% YoY and down 0.4% QoQ) and operating profit of 174.2 billion won (down 0.3% YoY and down 23.3% QoQ) in 2Q 2021. Operating margins declined from 40.7% in 2Q 2020 to 37.9% in 2Q 2021. </p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col span="5">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" style="width: 207pt;"><strong>Krafton 2Q 2021 Earnings Comparison</strong></td>
<td style="width: 60pt;"></td>
<td style="width: 60pt;"></td>
<td style="width: 60pt;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>(Won bn)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>2Q 2020</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>2Q 2021</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>% Change YoY</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>1Q 2021</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>% Change QoQ</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Sales</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>429.4</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>459.3</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>7.0%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>461.0</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>-0.4%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Operating Profit</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">174.8</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">174.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-0.3%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">227.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-23.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Net Profit</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">121.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">141.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">16.6%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">194.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">-27.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Profit Margins</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>2Q 2020</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>2Q 2021</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>1Q 2021</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Operating Margin</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>40.7%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>37.9%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><strong>49.3%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Net Margin</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">28.2%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">30.8%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right;">42.1%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2">Source: Company data</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/223/912/original/image_61680225921629098950166.png?1629098951" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="223912"></figure><div class="content-caption">Earnings CSource: Company data</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/223/913/original/image_45611897931629099016561.png?1629099016" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="223913"></figure><div class="content-caption">Sales Breakdown (Source: Company data)</div>


We believe that the sales and profit estimates for Krafton in 2022 is based on the company near-perfectly executing its business plans and also the regulators in China not enforcing any major new rules that could result in reduced playing time of the company's games in China.
As a result, we think that the probability of Krafton being able to reach the consensus sales and profit estimates in 2022 is likely to be reduced further in the coming months causing its stock price to remain relatively weak. We maintain our Negative view of Krafton.
Krafton 2Q 2021 Earnings ComparisonKrafton reported its first quarterly earnings report after its IPO in the past week. Krafton reported sales of 459.3 billion won (up 7% YoY and down 0.4% QoQ) and operating profit of 174.2 billion won (down 0.3% YoY and down 23.3% QoQ) in 2Q 2021. Operating margins declined from 40.7% in 2Q 2020 to 37.9% in 2Q 2021. 






Krafton 2Q 2021 Earnings Comparison





(Won bn)
2Q 2020
2Q 2021
% Change YoY
1Q 2021
% Change QoQ


Sales
429.4
459.3
7.0%
461.0
-0.4%


Operating Profit
174.8
174.2
-0.3%
227.2
-23.3%


Net Profit
121.2
141.3
16.6%
194.0
-27.2%










Profit Margins
2Q 2020
2Q 2021

1Q 2021



Operating Margin
40.7%
37.9%

49.3%



Net Margin
28.2%
30.8%

42.1%



Source: Company data






Earnings CSource: Company dataSales Breakdown (Source: Company data)

Krafton - Consensus Likely to Reduce Earnings Estimates in 2022

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<h2>KOSPI 200 Fast Entry screening</h2><p>Kakao Bank and Krafton's KOSPI 200 Fast Entry are 100% certain at this point.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>They need to be within the top 50 full market cap rankings on the KOSPI for 15 trading days after listing.</strong></p></div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/223/755/original/Screen+Shot+2021-08-15+at+3.07.46+AM.png?1629011369" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="223755"></figure></section><p>Currently, LG Display ranks 50th in the KOSPI market cap, and its market cap is in the 7.4-8 trillion range. Fast entry is possible as long as the market caps of both Kakao Bank and Krafton do not plunge below half in the next ten trading days.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 Fast Entry"}'>KOSPI 200 Fast Entry</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KakaoBank Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>KakaoBank Corp</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Krafton Inc"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Krafton Inc</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LG Display Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'><div><div>LG Display Co Ltd, currently at the 50th spot</div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44414}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mm. dd",1]'>08. 06</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":33.1619965426}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C2/1000000000000">₩33.16T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7.961399325}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C4/1000000000000">₩7.96T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44417}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mm. dd",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+3">08. 09</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":37.2953686045}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C2/1000000000000">₩37.30T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7.854054615}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C4/1000000000000">₩7.85T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44418}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mm. dd",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1">08. 10</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":33.9221569218}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C2/1000000000000">₩33.92T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":22.19972378}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C3/1000000000000">₩22.20T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7.925617755}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C4/1000000000000">₩7.93T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44419}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mm. dd",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1">08. 11</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35.3474576328}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C2/1000000000000">₩35.35T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":19.90151449}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C3/1000000000000">₩19.90T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7.90772697}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C4/1000000000000">₩7.91T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44420}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mm. dd",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1">08. 12</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35.0623974906}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C2/1000000000000">₩35.06T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":19.85261642}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C3/1000000000000">₩19.85T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7.710928335}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C4/1000000000000">₩7.71T</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44421}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"mm. dd",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+1">08. 13</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":36.3926781542}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C2/1000000000000">₩36.39T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":21.36845659}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C3/1000000000000">₩21.37T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7.44256656}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.00T",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[3]*R3C4/1000000000000">₩7.44T</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

KOSPI 200 Fast Entry screeningKakao Bank and Krafton's KOSPI 200 Fast Entry are 100% certain at this point.They need to be within the top 50 full market cap rankings on the KOSPI for 15 trading days after listing.Currently, LG Display ranks 50th in the KOSPI market cap, and its market cap is in the 7.4-8 trillion range. Fast entry is possible as long as the market caps of both Kakao Bank and Krafton do not plunge below half in the next ten trading days.








KOSPI 200 Fast Entry
KakaoBank Corp
Krafton Inc
LG Display Co Ltd, currently at the 50th spot


08. 06
₩33.16T
-
₩7.96T


08. 09
₩37.30T
-
₩7.85T


08. 10
₩33.92T
₩22.20T
₩7.93T


08. 11
₩35.35T
₩19.90T
₩7.91T


08. 12
₩35.06T
₩19.85T
₩7.71T


08. 13
₩36.39T
₩21.37T
₩7.44T

Source: KRX



Why Would Kakao Bank/Krafton's KOSPI 200 Fast Entry Float Estimations Be Such an Extraordinary Task?

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.</p>

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.

South Korea

Krafton, Inc. operates as a game development company. The Company develops console games, mobile games, computer games, and other related products. Krafton markets its products throughout South Korea.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Krafton (259960 KS)

KOSPI200 September Rebalance Preview: Double Edged Sword

KakaoBank and Krafton are high probability inclusions to the KOSPI200 in September while Lock&Lock and JW Pharma are potential deletions. KakaoBank...

Brian Freitas

A Comprehensive Review of 27 IPOs in Korea in 2020 and 2021

In this insight, we review 27 of the largest IPOs in Korea in 2020 and 2021. We discuss the institutional investors demand ratio, lock-up ratios,...

Douglas Kim

Krafton - Consensus Likely to Reduce Earnings Estimates in 2022

We think that the probability of Krafton being able to reach the consensus sales and profit estimates in 2022 is likely to be reduced further in...

Douglas Kim

Why Would Kakao Bank/Krafton's KOSPI 200 Fast Entry Float Estimations Be Such an Extraordinary Task?

This post explains why Kakao Bank and Krafton's KOSPI 200 Fast Entry float estimations would be such an extraordinary task.

Sanghyun Park

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #44

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic...

Granite Bay Capital

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)