Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>WCP announced today that it will delay its IPO. The book building for the institutional investors will start on 14 September (from 1 August previously).</li>
<li>Our guess for the delay is because the company may have tapped some major institutions and they may not have been so bullish on the IPO at current IPO valuation.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of WCP is price of 87,805 won. Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we would PASS on this IPO deal.</li>
</ul>


WCP announced today that it will delay its IPO. The book building for the institutional investors will start on 14 September (from 1 August previously).
Our guess for the delay is because the company may have tapped some major institutions and they may not have been so bullish on the IPO at current IPO valuation.
Our base case valuation of WCP is price of 87,805 won. Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we would PASS on this IPO deal.


Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Many employees of both companies must have participated in the ESOP subscription with stock-backed loans.</li>
<li>At the last close, the Kakao Bank ESOP must pay 14.34% of the initial total investment as additional withholdings. Krafton is much worse at 30.25%.</li>
<li>It seems highly likely that this situation will lead to a short-term flow distortion, substantial enough for us to consider setting up a position aimed at this.</li>
</ul>


Many employees of both companies must have participated in the ESOP subscription with stock-backed loans.
At the last close, the Kakao Bank ESOP must pay 14.34% of the initial total investment as additional withholdings. Krafton is much worse at 30.25%.
It seems highly likely that this situation will lead to a short-term flow distortion, substantial enough for us to consider setting up a position aimed at this.


Explaining ESOP Margin Call Situation for Kakao Bank & Krafton

<ul>
<li>In August, there will be material ESOP related shares of Kakao Bank, Krafton, and Lotte Rental shares that could be released (one year after their IPOs).</li>
<li>The potential sale of more ESOP shares could further negatively impact their share prices. In addition, they face significant competition and their near term financial outlook is less clear.</li>
<li>Although their valuation multiples have declined materially in the past year due to declining share prices, their valuation levels are still not overly attractive. </li>
</ul>


In August, there will be material ESOP related shares of Kakao Bank, Krafton, and Lotte Rental shares that could be released (one year after their IPOs).
The potential sale of more ESOP shares could further negatively impact their share prices. In addition, they face significant competition and their near term financial outlook is less clear.
Although their valuation multiples have declined materially in the past year due to declining share prices, their valuation levels are still not overly attractive. 


More End of Lock-Up Shares (ESOP) For Kakao Bank, Krafton, and Lotte Rental in August

<ul>
<li>The KRX will list 20 new single stock futures (SSF) and 5 single stock options (SSO) next Monday, July 25, including <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>It seems very probable that the replacement demand for futures (short) will increase substantially due to a possible saturation of the loan market.</li>
<li>This situation, coupled with local pensions' basis trading, can lead to a significantly distorted basis. We should do basis trading or play pair trading (with LG Chem) on this.</li>
</ul>


The KRX will list 20 new single stock futures (SSF) and 5 single stock options (SSO) next Monday, July 25, including LG Energy Solution (373220 KS).
It seems very probable that the replacement demand for futures (short) will increase substantially due to a possible saturation of the loan market.
This situation, coupled with local pensions' basis trading, can lead to a significantly distorted basis. We should do basis trading or play pair trading (with LG Chem) on this.


Korea's New SSF/SSO Listing on July 25 & LG Energy's Massive Lockup Release on July 27

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation LG Energy Solution is implied market cap of 75 trillion won or target price of 319,089 won, representing 25% below current share price.</li>
<li>Currently, LGES is trading at a premium valuation multiple on a EV/EBITDA (2023E) versus CATL. We believe LGES should trade at a discount to CATL in the next 6-12 months. </li>
<li>LGES's 6 months lock-up ends on 27 July and there are 4.3% of outstanding shares that can be sold which is likely to put negative pressure on share price.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation LG Energy Solution is implied market cap of 75 trillion won or target price of 319,089 won, representing 25% below current share price.
Currently, LGES is trading at a premium valuation multiple on a EV/EBITDA (2023E) versus CATL. We believe LGES should trade at a discount to CATL in the next 6-12 months. 
LGES's 6 months lock-up ends on 27 July and there are 4.3% of outstanding shares that can be sold which is likely to put negative pressure on share price.


LG Energy Solution: End of 6 Months Lock-Up Period & Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

South Korea

HYBE Co., Ltd. operates as an entertainment company. The Company provides music production, album distribution, entertainers management, publicity, planning, training, and other services. HYBE also makes television shows.

Netmarble Corporation develops and publishes mobile games. The Company develops and publishes casual games, action, sports games, strategy, simulation games, and social casino games. Netmarble offers services worldwide.

Pearl Abyss Corp. operates as a computer games making company. The Company offers games development, games exporting, and other services. Pearl Abyss serves customers worldwide.

Kakao Games Corp. operates as a multiply platform gaming company. The Company provides mobile games, computer games, virtual reality games, and other related products. Kakao Games markets its products worldwide.

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. is a Korean mobile and telecommunications operator. The Company provides cellular voice, wireless data, and wireless internet services. SK Telecom also offers fixed line services and platform services.

KT Corporation provides telecommunication services including local, long distance, and international calling, satellite communication, data transmission, and wireless telephone services in South Korea.  The Company also offers network portal and high-speed Internet access services using asymmetric digital subscriber lines (ADSLs).

LG Uplus Corp., an affiliate of LG Group, provides a wide range of personal communications services (PCS) using code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.  The Company offers call forwarding, call and data transfer, call waiting, voice mail, Internet-phone, prepaid call, and authentication text-to-speech (TTS) services.

LS Cable & System Asia Ltd. provides and offers cable products.  The Company manufactures and markets electric and telecommunication cables, head transmission lines, voltage cables and industrial specialty cables for the energy, infrastructure, construction, automotive, railway, telecommunication and electronics industries.

KINX INC is the Internet linkage and line adapter service providing firm.  The Company provides IX and Internet Data Center service to the network service providers to reduce the traffic and to contruct Internet infrastructure.  KINX also provides VoIP service.

Sejong Telecom, Inc. develops and provides various telecom service.  The Company's main service include international phone call, Internet phone call, and long distance call.

Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers entertainment content, as well as specializes in marketing and licensing, representation, and event management. Endeavor Group Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Roku, Inc. designs and manufactures consumer electronic products. The Company offers wireless enabled devices that stream audio and video content from the internet to home entertainment systems. Roku serves customers globally.

Kunlun Tech Co., Ltd. offers comprehensive Internet value-added services. The Company focuses on social network interactive and online game fields. Kunlun Tech also provides localized translation outsourcing and agency advertising services.

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

China Ruyi Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on online streaming video and internet community businesses. China Ruyi Holdings also manufactures and sells photographic, electronic, and multimedia accessories.

37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.,Ltd designs, develops, and operates mobile games and web games. The Company also provides game promotion, customer service, top-up payment, and other services. 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group conducts its businesses in China.

37 Interactive Entertainment N (002555 CH)

Lions Gate Entertainment Corporation develops and distributes film entertainment contents. The Company produces motion pictures, television programming, animation, and digital media. Lions Gate Entertainment serves customers worldwide.

World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. operates as a media and entertainment company. The Company offers live wrestling events, television programming, music publishing, advertising, licensing, and home video streaming services. World Wrestling distributes its programs worldwide in various languages.

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides theatrical exhibition, movie screening, food distribution, online ticket booking, and other related services. AMC Entertainment offers movie theaters worldwide.

Saregama India Limited manufactures, sells and deals in Audio Cassettes, CD's and DVDs, which they market in India, Europe, the USA, Canada, the Caribbean Islands and South Africa. The Group's range of music encompasses both new and old Hindi films, regional films, ghazals, classical, Indipop and International. Saregama also has a film business, which produces films and TV serials.

Krafton, Inc. operates as a game development company. The Company develops console games, mobile games, computer games, and other related products. Krafton markets its products throughout South Korea.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Krafton (259960 KS)

WCP Delays IPO

WCP announced today that it will delay its IPO. The book building for the institutional investors will start on 14 September (from 1 August...

Douglas Kim

Explaining ESOP Margin Call Situation for Kakao Bank & Krafton

This post investigates the ESOP margin call situation for Kakao Bank and Krafton, which are about to face the ESOP lockup releases on August 6 and...

Sanghyun Park

More End of Lock-Up Shares (ESOP) For Kakao Bank, Krafton, and Lotte Rental in August

In August, there will be material ESOP related shares of Kakao Bank, Krafton, and Lotte Rental shares that could be released (one year after their...

Douglas Kim

Korea's New SSF/SSO Listing on July 25 & LG Energy's Massive Lockup Release on July 27

This post details Korea's new SSF/SSO listing on July 25 and investigates potential basis & pair trading opportunities on LG Energy Solution amid...

Sanghyun Park

LG Energy Solution: End of 6 Months Lock-Up Period & Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

Our base case valuation LG Energy Solution is implied market cap of 75 trillion won or target price of 319,089 won, representing 25% below current...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)