Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Diageo's share price has been underperforming for far too long due to outside factors that have little to do with the business itself.</li>
<li>The premium brand portfolio in combination with the well-executed acquisition strategy creates a unique opportunity.</li>
<li>The company is well-positioned to retain and even improve its industry-leading margins.</li>
</ul>


Diageo's share price has been underperforming for far too long due to outside factors that have little to do with the business itself.
The premium brand portfolio in combination with the well-executed acquisition strategy creates a unique opportunity.
The company is well-positioned to retain and even improve its industry-leading margins.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Kraft Heinz saw strong revenue momentum in the last quarter and managed to deliver an all-around beat with a good growth in base volumes.</li><li>The management claims to be outperforming the competition in food service and emerging markets.</li><li>In 2023, the management is looking towards expanding its marketing technology and personnel investments to propel the company's growth.</li></ul>

Kraft Heinz saw strong revenue momentum in the last quarter and managed to deliver an all-around beat with a good growth in base volumes.The management claims to be outperforming the competition in food service and emerging markets.In 2023, the management is looking towards expanding its marketing technology and personnel investments to propel the company's growth.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>We normally write these “Workbench” reports in between our larger initiation pieces.  They are intended to offer a window into our short investment process and to highlight potentially interesting names.</li>
<li>This Workbench focuses exclusively on earnings quality shorts.  We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight:</li>
<li>Moderna (MRNA),  Knowles (KN)    Juniper Networks (JNPR)  Upstart Holdings (UPST)  Beauty Health Co (SKIN), Sonos (SONO). Kraft Heinz (KHC), AZEK Co. (AZEK), Energizer Holdings (ENR),  Fox Factory Holding  (FOXF)</li>
</ul>


We normally write these “Workbench” reports in between our larger initiation pieces.  They are intended to offer a window into our short investment process and to highlight potentially interesting names.
This Workbench focuses exclusively on earnings quality shorts.  We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight:
Moderna (MRNA),  Knowles (KN)    Juniper Networks (JNPR)  Upstart Holdings (UPST)  Beauty Health Co (SKIN), Sonos (SONO). Kraft Heinz (KHC), AZEK Co. (AZEK), Energizer Holdings (ENR),  Fox Factory Holding  (FOXF)


Short Ideas on Our Workbench:  Earnings Quality

United States

The Kraft Heinz Company provides food services. The Company offers foods including ketchup, sauces, meals, snacks, and other food products.

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Kraft Heinz Co (KHC US)

Diageo: A Rare Gift From Mr. Market

Diageo's share price has been underperforming for far too long due to outside factors that have little to do with the business itself.

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

The Kraft Heinz Company: Major Drivers

Kraft Heinz saw strong revenue momentum in the last quarter and managed to deliver an all-around beat with a good growth in base volumes. The...

Baptista Research

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Short Ideas on Our Workbench: Earnings Quality

Our "Workbench" focuses exclusively on potential earnings quality shorts. We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight ten names of...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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