Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-india-real-estate-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31036:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIREIT IN)</a> (BREIT from hereon) raised around US$520m in its India IPO. 
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I’ve covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brookfields-india-real-estate-trust-pre-ipo-the-positives-provides-different-geographic-exposure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure </a>, </li>
<li> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brookfields-india-real-estate-trust-pre-ipo-the-negatives-asset-details-leave-questions-unanswered" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- The Negatives- Asset Details Leave Questions Unanswered,</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brookfields-india-real-estate-trust-pre-ipo-gurgaon-site-visit-takeaways" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- Gurgaon Site Visit Takeaways, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brookfields-india-real-estate-trust-ipo-not-very-convincing-but-the-yield-looks-tempting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brookfields India Real Estate Trust IPO - Not Very Convincing but the Yield Looks Tempting</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
In this note, I'll talk about deal updates and provide a table with implied valuations at different share price levels.
</div>

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIREIT IN) (BREIT from hereon) raised around US$520m in its India IPO. 

I’ve covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:


Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO - The Positives- Provides Different Geographic Exposure , 
 Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- The Negatives- Asset Details Leave Questions Unanswered,

Brookfields India Real Estate Trust Pre-IPO- Gurgaon Site Visit Takeaways, and
Brookfields India Real Estate Trust IPO - Not Very Convincing but the Yield Looks Tempting



In this note, I'll talk about deal updates and provide a table with implied valuations at different share price levels.


Brookfields India Real Estate Trust IPO Trading - Mixed Bag

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Negative Operating Remain Troubling: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 4Q20 results of SGD 1.0 bn, declining SGD 285 mn (22.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results remain troubling across the board, as this is the second consecutive quarter that DBS reported negative operating jaws whilst the decline in loss provisions reversed course on weaker credit;*Credit Risk Challenges Management: We remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs, as this improvement would appear to be in contravention to the stress being experienced regionally. By our calculation, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 631 mn or increasing 41.7% on an annualized basis – more than doubling the figures of SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis for 3Q20. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.8bn – amounting now to three plus full quarters of results, comparing very unfavorably to the SGD 1.3 bn calculated (one quarter of results) just a quarter earlier and suggest that Lakshmi Vilas Bank’s (LVB) risk is not under the control; and *India Deal Poses Significant Challenges: : By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent to the tune of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion. LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al.  DBS expects DBS India to return to profitability and that the LVB deal will be ROE accretive over the next 12-24 months. We’d like some of what management is smoking.

*Negative Operating Remain Troubling: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 4Q20 results of SGD 1.0 bn, declining SGD 285 mn (22.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results remain troubling across the board, as this is the second consecutive quarter that DBS reported negative operating jaws whilst the decline in loss provisions reversed course on weaker credit;*Credit Risk Challenges Management: We remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs, as this improvement would appear to be in contravention to the stress being experienced regionally. By our calculation, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 631 mn or increasing 41.7% on an annualized basis – more than doubling the figures of SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis for 3Q20. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.8bn – amounting now to three plus full quarters of results, comparing very unfavorably to the SGD 1.3 bn calculated (one quarter of results) just a quarter earlier and suggest that Lakshmi Vilas Bank’s (LVB) risk is not under the control; and *India Deal Poses Significant Challenges: : By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent to the tune of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion. LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al.  DBS expects DBS India to return to profitability and that the LVB deal will be ROE accretive over the next 12-24 months. We’d like some of what management is smoking. 

DBS Group Holdings – COVID & India Not A Good Combo

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) [PNB] reported net income of INR 5.1 bn, declining INR 1.1 bn (18.5%) linked quarter. Three factors drove the poor result: a) net interest income declined INR 627 mn (0.8%) despite loan growth of 1.2%, as the NIM declined 9 bp to 2.93%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 5.8 bn (14.0%). Despite the increase, provisioins still fell short given the acerating level of credit risk; and c) a 10.6% linked quarter increase in PNB’s tax rate to 47.2%, which detracted INR 1.0 bn from the bottom-line; and*Credit Risk Leads to Capital Shortfall: Inclusive of the INR 9.6 bn NCO, we find that PNB’s level of net new NPLs actually increased INR 82.6 bn or 33.3% on an annualized basis. While we have very little confidence in PNB’s reporting of problem assets at this stage, we take their word for current NPLs and find that at a minimum loss reserves are light by at least INR 730 mn  - or approximately 100% of stated book value. This is without accounting for the delayed or backlog provisions associated fraud accounts and ageing provisions to be complete in FY 1H21.

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) [PNB] reported net income of INR 5.1 bn, declining INR 1.1 bn (18.5%) linked quarter. Three factors drove the poor result: a) net interest income declined INR 627 mn (0.8%) despite loan growth of 1.2%, as the NIM declined 9 bp to 2.93%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 5.8 bn (14.0%). Despite the increase, provisioins still fell short given the acerating level of credit risk; and c) a 10.6% linked quarter increase in PNB’s tax rate to 47.2%, which detracted INR 1.0 bn from the bottom-line; and*Credit Risk Leads to Capital Shortfall: Inclusive of the INR 9.6 bn NCO, we find that PNB’s level of net new NPLs actually increased INR 82.6 bn or 33.3% on an annualized basis. While we have very little confidence in PNB’s reporting of problem assets at this stage, we take their word for current NPLs and find that at a minimum loss reserves are light by at least INR 730 mn  - or approximately 100% of stated book value. This is without accounting for the delayed or backlog provisions associated fraud accounts and ageing provisions to be complete in FY 1H21.  

*Better Bottom-line Doesn’t Tell Entire Story: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 55.8 bn, increasing INR 10.1 bn (22.1%) linked quarter. On top of a significant (albeit completely unwarranted) INR 55.0 bn (58.1%) decline in loss provisions, results were also highlighted by a turnaround in SBI’s operating jaws which are now positive; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: While we note a net recovery of INR 48.4 bn (likely a non-recurring event given the exorbitant credit risk), we still find that net new NPLs increased INR 145.7 bn for an annualized increase of 41.6%.  By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 bn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap.

*Better Bottom-line Doesn’t Tell Entire Story: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 55.8 bn, increasing INR 10.1 bn (22.1%) linked quarter. On top of a significant (albeit completely unwarranted) INR 55.0 bn (58.1%) decline in loss provisions, results were also highlighted by a turnaround in SBI’s operating jaws which are now positive; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: While we note a net recovery of INR 48.4 bn (likely a non-recurring event given the exorbitant credit risk), we still find that net new NPLs increased INR 145.7 bn for an annualized increase of 41.6%.  By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 bn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap. 

India

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)

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Brian Freitas

Brookfields India Real Estate Trust IPO Trading - Mixed Bag

Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIREIT IN) raised around US$520m in its India IPO. In this note, I'll talk about deal updates and provide a...

Sumeet Singh

DBS Group Holdings – COVID & India Not A Good Combo

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS: DBS reported a 4Q20 results decline of 22.0% linked quarter. Results remain troubling across the board. India deal poses...

Thomas J. Monaco

Punjab National Bank – Match Is Lit

PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK: PNB reported a net income decline of 18.5% linked quarter. Despite the increase, provisions still fell short to the tune of...

Thomas J. Monaco

State Bank of India – Bad Credit

STATE BANK OF INDIA: SBI reported FY 3Q21 result increase of 22.1%) linked quarter led by a completely unwarranted 58.1% decline in provisions and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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