Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Another Abysmal Result: Bank of Baroda (BOB.IN) [BOB] reported FY 1Q22 results of INR 12.1 bn, improving from the loss of INR 10.5 bn in FY 4Q21. However, on an operating basis, we note that linked quarter results improved to INR 2.6 bn versus a loss of INR 1,4 bn in FY 4Q21; and *Poor Reserve Cover Worsens:  Net new NPLs accelerated to INR 25.7 bn or 15.4% annualized versus INR 13.5 bn or 11.2% annualized at FY 4Q21. By our calculation, however, BOB’s reserves still remain light by INR 300 bn or nearly six years of FY 1Q22 earnings.

*Another Abysmal Result: Bank of Baroda (BOB.IN) [BOB] reported FY 1Q22 results of INR 12.1 bn, improving from the loss of INR 10.5 bn in FY 4Q21. However, on an operating basis, we note that linked quarter results improved to INR 2.6 bn versus a loss of INR 1,4 bn in FY 4Q21; and *Poor Reserve Cover Worsens:  Net new NPLs accelerated to INR 25.7 bn or 15.4% annualized versus INR 13.5 bn or 11.2% annualized at FY 4Q21. By our calculation, however, BOB’s reserves still remain light by INR 300 bn or nearly six years of FY 1Q22 earnings.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Aptus Value Housing Finance India / Equity Capital Markets

Aptus Value Housing Finance (AVHF) aims to raise around US$375m in its India IPO. The company is backed by a host of investors including WestBridge, Malabar Investments, Sequoia, Madison and Steadview CapitalAptus Value Housing Finance India Limited (AVHF) is a retail focussed housing finance company (HFC) primarily serving low and middle income self-employed customers in the rural and semi-urban markets in India. AVHF was one of the largest HFC’s in South India in terms of AUM, as of Mar 21. AVHF’s net interest income has grown by 38-55% pa over FY18-FY21, while its Pre-provision operating profit has done even better with 40-63% pa growth. Earnings growth has been driven by its rapid loan growth which has been between 28-58% pa over the past three years.Although loan growth has been slowing down and disbursements growth had already declined from 47% YoY in FY19 to just 2% YoY in FY21.In this note, we will look at the company’s past performance, run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about pricing

Aptus Value Housing Finance (AVHF) aims to raise around US$375m in its India IPO. The company is backed by a host of investors including WestBridge, Malabar Investments, Sequoia, Madison and Steadview CapitalAptus Value Housing Finance India Limited (AVHF) is a retail focussed housing finance company (HFC) primarily serving low and middle income self-employed customers in the rural and semi-urban markets in India. AVHF was one of the largest HFC’s in South India in terms of AUM, as of Mar 21. AVHF’s net interest income has grown by 38-55% pa over FY18-FY21, while its Pre-provision operating profit has done even better with 40-63% pa growth. Earnings growth has been driven by its rapid loan growth which has been between 28-58% pa over the past three years.Although loan growth has been slowing down and disbursements growth had already declined from 47% YoY in FY19 to just 2% YoY in FY21.In this note, we will look at the company’s past performance, run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about pricing

Aptus Value Housing Finance IPO - Valuation Is Too Rich, Especially with an Over-Capitalised Book

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

*ChallengesMount: HDFC Ltd (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 1Q22 results of INR 30.0 bn, decreasing INR 1.8 bn (5.6%) on a linked quarter basis. However, core operating results came in at INR 24.7 bn, declining INR 2.7 bn (9.9%) over the same period – despite net interest income improving INR 819 mn  (2.0%) off of a 20 bp NIM improvement to 3.70% and managed loan growth of 0.2%; and*Credit Quality Worsens: Given the INR 5.0 bn in NCOs during FY 1Q22, net new NPLs accelerated to INR 19.0 bn and increased 65.5% on an annualized basis versus INR 3.6 bn or 14.2% on an annualized basis in FY 1Q21. We would have preferred that HDFC be even more vigilant given the continued growing uncertainty of COVID-19. As such, we still find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 83 bn or over three quarters of core operating results.

*ChallengesMount: HDFC Ltd (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 1Q22 results of INR 30.0 bn, decreasing INR 1.8 bn (5.6%) on a linked quarter basis. However, core operating results came in at INR 24.7 bn, declining INR 2.7 bn (9.9%) over the same period – despite net interest income improving INR 819 mn  (2.0%) off of a 20 bp NIM improvement to 3.70% and managed loan growth of 0.2%; and*Credit Quality Worsens: Given the INR 5.0 bn in NCOs during FY 1Q22, net new NPLs accelerated to INR 19.0 bn and increased 65.5% on an annualized basis versus INR 3.6 bn or 14.2% on an annualized basis in FY 1Q21. We would have preferred that HDFC be even more vigilant given the continued growing uncertainty of COVID-19. As such, we still find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 83 bn or over three quarters of core operating results. 

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Pay obscene salaries to a favoured few, completely out of sync with the already inflated salary structure in the industry, silently watch as they bring the bank to near collapse – this was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> ’s policy for senior management. It is not surprising that this was done under the earlier CEO, Rana Kapoor. The surprise is that the some of the grossly overpaid mismanagers were gracefully allowed to continue in their posts under the new owners, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a>-led consortium, including prominent names in private financial capital. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/agraashish/?originalSubdomain=in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ashish Agarwal</a> , the current Head-Wholesale Banking and the former Chief Risk Officer (CRO), who was also in charge of corporate credit appraisal, earned a salary (including staggered bonus) of nearly Rs 72 mn in FY2018, significantly higher than peers who were managing much larger balance sheets. Agarwal, who played a critical role in appraising and approving dodgy credit, has been allowed by the new board of  <a href="https://www.yesbank.in/about-us/our-team" target="_blank" rel="noopener">directors</a> to continue (like some of his senior colleagues) on a reduced remuneration. It is shocking that the new consortium of owners, which includes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener"> </a> and others, continues to employ an individual with such a track record. While Rana Kapoor, the erstwhile CEO, was the main culprit, extravagantly paid individuals like Ashish Agarwal made their own contributions to the downfall of the bank by failing to raise stringent objections, complain directly to the banking regulator or resign from the bank. The attractive financial package that such individuals were rewarded with by a servile Nominations and Remuneration Committee compromised professionalism, and an incompetent/complicit Credit and Risk Management Committees failed in its oversight responsibilities.  Supposedly, the free market rewards superior performance and punishes non-performance, but this role of the free market appears to have bypassed Yes Bank and its new board of directors.

Pay obscene salaries to a favoured few, completely out of sync with the already inflated salary structure in the industry, silently watch as they bring the bank to near collapse – this was Yes Bank (YES IN) ’s policy for senior management. It is not surprising that this was done under the earlier CEO, Rana Kapoor. The surprise is that the some of the grossly overpaid mismanagers were gracefully allowed to continue in their posts under the new owners, the State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)-led consortium, including prominent names in private financial capital. Ashish Agarwal , the current Head-Wholesale Banking and the former Chief Risk Officer (CRO), who was also in charge of corporate credit appraisal, earned a salary (including staggered bonus) of nearly Rs 72 mn in FY2018, significantly higher than peers who were managing much larger balance sheets. Agarwal, who played a critical role in appraising and approving dodgy credit, has been allowed by the new board of  directors to continue (like some of his senior colleagues) on a reduced remuneration. It is shocking that the new consortium of owners, which includes Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN), Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN), HDFC Limited (HDFC IN), ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)  and others, continues to employ an individual with such a track record. While Rana Kapoor, the erstwhile CEO, was the main culprit, extravagantly paid individuals like Ashish Agarwal made their own contributions to the downfall of the bank by failing to raise stringent objections, complain directly to the banking regulator or resign from the bank. The attractive financial package that such individuals were rewarded with by a servile Nominations and Remuneration Committee compromised professionalism, and an incompetent/complicit Credit and Risk Management Committees failed in its oversight responsibilities.  Supposedly, the free market rewards superior performance and punishes non-performance, but this role of the free market appears to have bypassed Yes Bank and its new board of directors.

Yes Bank’s New Owners Keep Overpaid Mismanagers in Place

India

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)

Bank of Baroda – More Capital Please

BANK OF BARODA: BOB reported FY 1Q22 operating results of INR 2.6 bn versus a loss of INR 1.4 bn in FY 4Q21. Net new NPLs accelerated to 15.4%...

Thomas J. Monaco

Aptus Value Housing Finance IPO - Valuation Is Too Rich, Especially with an Over-Capitalised Book

Aptus Value Housing Finance aims to raise around US$375m in its India IPO. It is backed by a host of investors including WestBridge, Malabar...

Sumeet Singh

DBS Group Holdings – Bad Print

DBS: DBS QOQ 2Q21 results declined 15.1% due to poor revenues and higher provisions. We worry that DBS has not caught the LVB risk, net new NPLs re...

Thomas J. Monaco

HDFC Ltd – Just Getting Worse

HDFC: HDFC reported FY 1Q22 QOQ core result decline of 9.9%. Net new NPLs increased 65.5% annualized basis; HDFC’s reserve needs shoring up INR 83...

Thomas J. Monaco

Yes Bank’s New Owners Keep Overpaid Mismanagers in Place

In Yes Bank’s fall, while Rana Kapoor was the main culprit, he was ably assisted by his handsomely paid favoured few in critical posts, some like...

Hemindra Hazari

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