Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gains for Micron on the potential for DDR5 price hikes should help lift <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micronics-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6871 Micronics</a> after yesterdays excessive weakness.</li>
<li>More cheer for US home builders after Smith Douglas number beat, adding to the upside story for Sumi Forestry and Selkisui House.</li>
<li>Defence related plays should remain in the spotlight with Kishida replacement candidates Ishiba and Kono both ex-defence ministers.</li>
</ul>


Gains for Micron on the potential for DDR5 price hikes should help lift 6871 Micronics after yesterdays excessive weakness.
More cheer for US home builders after Smith Douglas number beat, adding to the upside story for Sumi Forestry and Selkisui House.
Defence related plays should remain in the spotlight with Kishida replacement candidates Ishiba and Kono both ex-defence ministers.


Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

<ul>
<li>ARM +5.7% will help lift <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">9984 Softbank</a> which is lagging some of the other high-beta plays in Japan giving it plenty of room to rebound further.</li>
<li>The market is going to like the news that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2501 Sapporo</a> is finally listening to activist investors who have been angling for the firm to divest some of its large R/E holdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">4922 Kose</a> is looking more interesting after it's failure to rebound looks to have been caused by a negative read from 4911 Shiseido’s poor numbers rather than anything company specific.</li>
</ul>


ARM +5.7% will help lift 9984 Softbank which is lagging some of the other high-beta plays in Japan giving it plenty of room to rebound further.
The market is going to like the news that 2501 Sapporo is finally listening to activist investors who have been angling for the firm to divest some of its large R/E holdings.

4922 Kose is looking more interesting after it's failure to rebound looks to have been caused by a negative read from 4911 Shiseido’s poor numbers rather than anything company specific.


Japan Morning Connection: Softbank, Sapporo, Kose

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> has increased the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> tender offer price by 4.1% to JPY2,800 and extended the offer period to 28 August. The price is final.</li>
<li>Kirin tried to get the required acceptances by refusing to bump and extending the offer period. However, these tactics failed, as the shares continued to trade above terms.</li>
<li>The Board twice asked Kirin to raise its offer higher than JPY2,800, but eventually recommended the revised offer. Nevertheless, the bump should be sufficient for Kirin to succeed. </li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) has increased the Fancl Corp (4921 JP) tender offer price by 4.1% to JPY2,800 and extended the offer period to 28 August. The price is final.
Kirin tried to get the required acceptances by refusing to bump and extending the offer period. However, these tactics failed, as the shares continued to trade above terms.
The Board twice asked Kirin to raise its offer higher than JPY2,800, but eventually recommended the revised offer. Nevertheless, the bump should be sufficient for Kirin to succeed. 


Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

<ul>
<li>Plenty of names which continue to look oversold in the recent volatility after posting better than expected numbers yesterday including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/puma-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21697" rel="noopener">Puma (PUM GR)</a> -12.6% after 2Q numbers and guidance missed, setting a negative tone for sportswear including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a> which has been in play after strong earnings and recent large share placement.</li>
<li>Numbers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> point to diverging paths, which looks conducive for the 4922-4911 pair setup.</li>
</ul>


Plenty of names which continue to look oversold in the recent volatility after posting better than expected numbers yesterday including Sony Corp (6758 JP) and Lasertec Corp (6920 JP).

Puma (PUM GR) -12.6% after 2Q numbers and guidance missed, setting a negative tone for sportswear including ASICS Corp (7936 JP) which has been in play after strong earnings and recent large share placement.
Numbers for Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and Kose Corp (4922 JP) point to diverging paths, which looks conducive for the 4922-4911 pair setup.


Japan Morning Connection: 6758 JP, 6920 JP, 7936 JP

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

Japan

KOSE Corporation manufactures, retails, and exports cosmetics including make up, skin care, and hair care products.  The Company sells its products in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Malaysia.

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Kose Corp (4922 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Softbank, Sapporo, Kose

Positive developments for ARM may boost Softbank; Sapporo listens to activist investors; Kose may rebound despite Shiseido's poor performance.

Andrew Jackson

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

MY.Alpha has increased its shareholding from 10.3m (8.51% ownership ratio) to 11.6m (9.58%) primarily due to purchasing 1.1m shares at JPY2,794 on...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: 6758 JP, 6920 JP, 7936 JP

Stocks like Sony and Lasertec look oversold. Puma's poor performance sets a negative tone for sportswear plays. Shiseido and Kose show diverging...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

​Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Softbank, Sapporo, Kose

​Positive developments for ARM may boost Softbank; Sapporo listens to activist investors; Kose may rebound despite Shiseido's poor performance.

Andrew Jackson

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

MY.Alpha has increased its shareholding from 10.3m (8.51% ownership ratio) to 11.6m (9.58%) primarily due to purchasing 1.1m shares at JPY2,794 on...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: 6758 JP, 6920 JP, 7936 JP

​Stocks like Sony and Lasertec look oversold. Puma's poor performance sets a negative tone for sportswear plays. Shiseido and Kose show diverging...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

Positive developments for ARM may boost Softbank; Sapporo listens to activist investors; Kose may rebound despite Shiseido's poor performance.

Stocks like Sony and Lasertec look oversold. Puma's poor performance sets a negative tone for sportswear plays. Shiseido and Kose show diverging...